Get Doged by Trump

@cd329

Truth.  But sad.

Some say those who oppose MAGA fascism are people who worship SATAN

But obviously that could not be true at any time since

we would NEVER worship trump under any circumstance!

Thats how insane magas truly are.  Think about how magas keep voting against their own self interests, believing that someday they might be invited into the rich persons house,loll.

I have family members and very good friends that i have known for over 45 years and i just cant be around them anymore, because of their vile nature and lack of just plain human decency anymore. It really is like they have been kidnapped into a cult. All thru the years we didnt always agree on things, but that never once interfered in our friendships.  Not until some switch was flipped inside them and trump hijacked their minds and started acting just like him.  Maybe the human race is reaching its expiration date.  Truth be told i watch both types of news, i do that so that i dont just listen to 1 side.  I want to hear both sides and then find where the truth really is.  I would bet any amount of money not many magas even know where the other channels are and wouldnt watch anyways.   Its very easy to see what our politicians cast votes on and not what they just talk to us about, cause lots of times its different.

Our country isnt perfect, but its still the best in the world.  To see how we got people in there, just wanting to tear it down is heart breaking. 

An everytime i watch the holy rollers talk, all i see is a bunch of phony hypocrites.  Sure hope God asks all these people someday, why they soul their souls to a soulless man

Here is the data for the "12 Month-ending Provisional Number and Percent Change of Drug Overdose Deaths in United States" 

12 month ending period: February 2017 (The start of Trump's 1st Administration)

Reported number of deaths: 66189 

12 month ending period: January 2021 (The end of Trump's 1st Administration)

Reported number of deaths: 94788

Drug over use death rate: 43.2% rise during Trump's 1st Administration.

12 month ending period: February 2021 (The start of Biden's Administration)

Reported number of deaths: 96118

12 month ending period: October 2024 (The last month of the data posted)

Reported number of deaths: 82020

During this period (under Biden's Administration), drug overdose death rate has decreased by 14.7%.*

*CDC

Fact is Pres. Biden's administration has done much better in terms of saving more Americans from drug overdose deaths. 

Trump promotes myth of immigrant crime wave to appeal to the ignorance and prejudice of voters. Europa shows CDC data confirming fewer fentanyl deaths under Biden administration.  Increased immigration doesn't increase US crime rates because 95% of crimes are committed by native born Americans.  95% of convicted drug traffickers are US citizens who are less likely to be stopped at border.  Texas data shows that immigrants are far less likely to commit crimes. 

@wallstreetcappers

 Yes, I know.  We have had many a discussion on the Russia / Ukraine conflict and I know you are very based in your assessment....which is why I made the humorous comment as the odds of you having a Putin poster on the wall are equal to having a MAGA Trump poster next to it.  

@Raiders22

 Not so, no.  Only credit for having the balls to raise rates as high as 20% to combat the rampant inflation of the 70s.  Other than that, no.  

I take the bolded as your "answers" but I guess I was thinking you'd address more specifically the "flim fam contentions".  No worries though.  

The only important question is "do you think the US debt path is sustainable?"  Yes...why?  No....what would you do?  

I'm willing to take the wait and see approach here and see what happens, just as I did with the last administration and any other administration first starting out.  My biggest contention is simple. 

Any "short term pain", no matter how deep, will be absolutely worthless in the long term if spending isn't reduced and deficit reduction.  It will be all for naught and if that happens I'll be the biggest critic.  Considering the bill that is about to get passed, they are not off to a start that exactly instills confidence.....I do not have "high hopes".  

@kcblitzkrieg

Even that should not be lauded.  Evidence shows that inflation had topped out and was prepared to come down.  

You can draw a direct line to his idealogical policy of raising rates to the financial crisis of 2008 because it set the banks up for failure with the deregulatory environment that led to it.  You can see this in how he interpreted the cause of the crisis when he talked about it.  

Not to mention his policies led directly to not one, but two recessions.

You can very easily make the case that he set the middle class back for many years.  

It is akin to all of the folks that 'support' FDR's policies and credit him, even though evidence shows he actually worsened and extended the depression.

But nowadays even conservative economists tend to absolve him and give him far more credit than is deserved.

You can also argue that he set the stage for the way FED chairs have set policy since. They are more concerned with the part of the 'dual mandate' that focuses on prices and less on employment.

He simply underestimated the effect the oil situation had on inflation at that time and that those prices had already peaked.

The philosophy of 'killing the economy to save it' was very damaging to farmers and agriculture and thus, much of Latin America felt the effects of his policies.  He also set USA manufacturing back a good bit as well.  You can make the case that his policies led directly to the dollar surging so much that it almost 'forced' USA companies to default to the advantage that foreign countries now had.

Even once he was out of office he continued to double down on wanting zero inflation.  No normal economist supports this, because if you are at zero the only way to adjust is with deflation.

Not to say 'Tall Paul' was all bad.  He was a good, humble, miserly man with great integrity.

I am simply saying he was misguided and dogmatically wrong on the main issue he gets 'credit' for.

You can make the case that if he had not handled it the way he did the policies of Reagan that led to a booming economy for the next 30 years would have kicked in even earlier.

So, if you say you 'credit him for having the balls to raise rates as high as 20% to combat the rampant inflation of the 70s", I think it should looked at in its entirety.

Yes, he had the fortitude to raise rates and stick with his conviction.  But he was simply wrong in doing so.  So, I am not sure how much 'credit' should be given to someone for 'having the balls' to be wrong and double down on it.

Volcker > Private equity JPOW 

I'm giving Volcker credit for his contributions during his time.  Did he push his policy too far preventing the Reagan turnaround from beginning earlier?  I won't argue it.  I'm not anointing him a savior by any means.  As Wally says, FED tools are "blunt tools" and that is an apt description.  He did what needed to be done at the time 

@kcblitzkrieg

 He did what needed to be done at the time

This is the part I disagree with.  He thought he did and folks overly credit him is my point.

@kcblitzkrieg

 #55

Google Putin / Kim jung knock at the door poster and tell me your thoughts.

@Raiders22

 so he shouldn't have raised rates in an hyperinflationary environment ??  

 I wasn't alive during that time period.....what are you suggesting was the alternative?  

@unplucked_gem

 yeah I've seen it, its an classic meme.  I prefer the Xi / Putin phone call "bro" meme "hold on I got a line" / Kim Jong, when aptly use in conjunction with stupid shit our Western leaders do / have done.  "and they call us dictators".  Lots of use during the communist led covid shutdown era 

They told me what to do ………and they forced me to compromise my body ……..like some kind of drugged out wunderkind person being pimped on the strip with no apologies …….given afterwards when it was all said and done …….I feel used , betrayed , and abused , plus a little fucked .

covid betrayal by the communist led liberal party 

@kcblitzkrieg

Oil issues drove the inflation. By mid-1979, when he came in, this had largely started to alleviate for various reasons.

Then he starts jacking up interest rates, capping liquidity, and, thus, causing tremendous pain to the folks and companies and banks.

The unintended consequences that demoralized the folks and the workforce, he then tried to swerve responsibility for it by claiming it was ‘market forces’ at play.

You can also notice his refusal for direct credit regulation, which actually harkened back to an early 1950s stance the FED had.

Employment shot up, and the unions suffered. Whether or not unions were still needed then or now is another topic. But his loathing of organized labor and declaring that the standard of living for Americans was too high and needed to decline both further deteriorated the American worker’s psyche and morals. 

You now see the FED loving to follow this lead of ‘Volcker Shock’ and not caring about the social harms to the worker when it comes to the topic of inflation.

Even when the farmers rode their tractors into Washington and the unions complained and the builders sent 2x4s to politicians and auto dealers sent keys in little coffins to them, he would not relent, as unemployment rose. Then the politicians pressured him into lowering the rates.

Then just when the recession was ending in mid-summer, he decided to start in on inflation again. Because people now doubted his and the FED's ability to fix it, he raised it all the way up to 20%.

The worst recession since WWII got underway. Until well into 1983, inflation finally gets to around 3%.

That is the case that some of us were pointing to in this last inflation time. Stick to it, have a target, and do it fast and early. Do not prolong it and worsen it like Volcker did by not following through and then doubling down. That is exactly what the FED did the last time; they reacted too late and too little. They do this going in and coming out of high inflationary times. To his ‘credit,’ Volcker did advocate bigger jumps than we see nowadays.

So, that is the case for not being wobbly.

@kcblitzkrieg 

The case for not interfering at all is simple: the signs were there that things were easing up and had peaked.

Just because something worsens and eventually recovers does not mean what was done was needed to make it recover. Again, just as with FDR and the depression, the case can be made he unnecessarily worsened and lengthened a bad situation that was recovering. 

The whole ‘economic theory’ of raising rates to lower inflation ‘forces’ a recession has also been revisited in the last few years with the healthy economy.

So, is it true that inflation goes up, interest rates get raised, the economy slows, inflation comes down, and then a recession follows? Therefore, if the economy continues to boom, you say it was the interest rates; but if a recession happens, you can also say it was the interest rates.

Whether it is a chain reaction or is it ‘psychological’ messaging to the folks and, hence, the markets.

So, it is not very easy to pin inflation down. When one side says FDR made the recovery quicker or Volcker’s increases lowered inflation quicker, the other side easily can make a very good case that the exact opposite is true.

Sometimes this is due to hindsight, of course.

You can, on the other side, say he should have done nothing.

The FED’s contention is always that they cannot affect the supply side as much as the demand side on inflation. This simply is not true. They control the supply of credit, and that, for sure, affects the supply side of the economy.

So the policy does not also make sound economical sense. If the cost of capital is raised, you essentially are increasing prices because you are restraining production.

You can look at a chart during these times of CPI and see this. It was coming down already. Then it exploded.

So, as one guy some years ago wrote in part, “Volcker’s policies created the inflation he claimed to have destroyed. And yet, he is heralded as this hero in Wall Street folklore.”

Like he asked, “But was Volcker in fact an arsonist masquerading as a firefighter?”

Basically three choices: 1) Do what he did (up and down and back up) to get two recessions (one that was very bad); 2) stick with his original plan and not relent; 3) not fool with it at that time because the signs were there that it had peaked and was poised to ease off. 

I come down on the side of number 3. 

Longer answer than you wanted, I know. But it could have and should have been even longer and more detailed.

[Quote: Originally Posted by cd329]Quote Originally Posted by TheGoldenGoose: Voter remorse for sure.  The fox is in the hen house.  It’s a head-scratcher how Southern Republicans can consistently vote against their own interests.  “You mean Trump lied to us???”    They have a $75K household income yet vote for billionaires.  Like the late, great, comedian George Carlin used to say, “it’s a big club and you’re not in it!!! excellent post Goose am 62 and still have not been able to figure out why people keep voting against their own self interests. Its like they love the punishment or they think they will be a member of the rich club if they vote for these rich con artists[/Quote]

You mean like paying lower income taxes ?  Yeah, that was Trump that signed that piece of legislation into law that ended up helping lowering taxes and helping "lower-income, middle-income" workers more than higher wage-earners... I know you liberals hate to see the facts get in the way of your talking points.. so, no.  the tax cuts weren't a giveaway to the rich.   

I sometimes wonder if you liberals had all your facts right if you would vote Republican..  Lol.