Alright so I'm a fucking idiot when it comes to posting shit on forums so hopefully this is the right spot for this sort of question. Long story short, I've been betting with William Hill since 2015, mostly on sports. I did well (not great just decent) every year doing just sports betting but I didn't hit anything all that big until 2020 when I ventured into politics. I put a lot of money on Biden in both the primary and the general and made over 25 K. I was real happy until i got an e-mail from them a week after they paid me saying my stakes 'may' be 'restricted' going forward. Turn out may means 'definitely' and 'restricted' essentially zero. The fucking guy on the chat goes 'you can still make full use of all our casino offerings'... like oh wow now I feel better.
For sports betting, this is no problem as there are lots of sites I can turn to but for politics it's far from obvious. A number of sites do offer markets in the two events I'm most interested in right now-- the 2022 French election and the 2024 US presidential-- but they have laughably low limits. Bet Online.ag has it capped at 250. So my question is do you guys know of sites that offer odds on politics at reasonably decent limits.
Any advice would be most appreciated and many thanks in advance.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Alright so I'm a fucking idiot when it comes to posting shit on forums so hopefully this is the right spot for this sort of question. Long story short, I've been betting with William Hill since 2015, mostly on sports. I did well (not great just decent) every year doing just sports betting but I didn't hit anything all that big until 2020 when I ventured into politics. I put a lot of money on Biden in both the primary and the general and made over 25 K. I was real happy until i got an e-mail from them a week after they paid me saying my stakes 'may' be 'restricted' going forward. Turn out may means 'definitely' and 'restricted' essentially zero. The fucking guy on the chat goes 'you can still make full use of all our casino offerings'... like oh wow now I feel better.
For sports betting, this is no problem as there are lots of sites I can turn to but for politics it's far from obvious. A number of sites do offer markets in the two events I'm most interested in right now-- the 2022 French election and the 2024 US presidential-- but they have laughably low limits. Bet Online.ag has it capped at 250. So my question is do you guys know of sites that offer odds on politics at reasonably decent limits.
Any advice would be most appreciated and many thanks in advance.
Lol yeah everyone i know who has friends on the book side of things said they were shitting bricks on election night fearing all the trump payouts. the vast majority was on trump in total percentage terms, though the action was quite a bit more balanced in sheer dollar terms. one dude put a million bucks on biden at bet fair, though i think it was on their exchange. I wonder if the fact that i've never had a losing year worried them, even though the profits in all of those years was never that high.
I might sell off my first born to get on Betfair. The odds on there are so freakin sweet and the ability to trade is great too. Wish i could do it.
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@jimrockford22
Lol yeah everyone i know who has friends on the book side of things said they were shitting bricks on election night fearing all the trump payouts. the vast majority was on trump in total percentage terms, though the action was quite a bit more balanced in sheer dollar terms. one dude put a million bucks on biden at bet fair, though i think it was on their exchange. I wonder if the fact that i've never had a losing year worried them, even though the profits in all of those years was never that high.
I might sell off my first born to get on Betfair. The odds on there are so freakin sweet and the ability to trade is great too. Wish i could do it.
Yes elections but the presidency is a bit more of a trick the bet was allowed that states would bet the electoral college. Canada has a broad gaming market through Native casinos only been to Edmunston near madawaska maine.
I was invited to burnt church but I never found the time ....
I live in Maine. Not so far from oob now.
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Yes elections but the presidency is a bit more of a trick the bet was allowed that states would bet the electoral college. Canada has a broad gaming market through Native casinos only been to Edmunston near madawaska maine.
I was invited to burnt church but I never found the time ....
You could the greatest bettor in history and starve to death betting Canada-only books.. You'd get your limits cut back from winning $500 bets on the Oscars
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You could the greatest bettor in history and starve to death betting Canada-only books.. You'd get your limits cut back from winning $500 bets on the Oscars
I'm surprised they 86'd you over 25K. Truth be told, books hate paying out on trivial shit like elections, the oscars, ect. but 25K?! To William Hill??!! There has to be more to this story.
My initial guess would be they were hesitant to grade it because of all the supposed shenanigans in the election. You forced the issue. They paid you and said, "Now get f*cked!"
R.I.P. #94 MARSHAWN KNEELAND - DC4L
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I'm surprised they 86'd you over 25K. Truth be told, books hate paying out on trivial shit like elections, the oscars, ect. but 25K?! To William Hill??!! There has to be more to this story.
My initial guess would be they were hesitant to grade it because of all the supposed shenanigans in the election. You forced the issue. They paid you and said, "Now get f*cked!"
Why do they hate paying on shit like the oscars? A dollar is a dollar right...
Elections aren't trivial to them I don't think because betting on elections, while not a big deal in Canada where I'm from or the US, is a huge business in Britain. But as to your guess, not at all actually. I was stunned when I logged in on the Saturday afternoon a couple hours after the networks had called in and saw that they paid me. I never had a negative exchange with them.
My profits from 2015-2019 where a little under 15 k so i wouldn't imagine 40 k in five years should scare them... i really don't get it.
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@StumpTownStu
Why do they hate paying on shit like the oscars? A dollar is a dollar right...
Elections aren't trivial to them I don't think because betting on elections, while not a big deal in Canada where I'm from or the US, is a huge business in Britain. But as to your guess, not at all actually. I was stunned when I logged in on the Saturday afternoon a couple hours after the networks had called in and saw that they paid me. I never had a negative exchange with them.
My profits from 2015-2019 where a little under 15 k so i wouldn't imagine 40 k in five years should scare them... i really don't get it.
Weird cause WH obviously just does not serve the Canadian market. But yeah Canada only books like Sports Interaction are hilariously low. I saw they had Biden at -500 to win the pop vote and was like 'Sweet free money' and the limit was 66 bucks lol. Still easy money but just enough to pay for a small at domino's or whatever.
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@jimrockford22
Weird cause WH obviously just does not serve the Canadian market. But yeah Canada only books like Sports Interaction are hilariously low. I saw they had Biden at -500 to win the pop vote and was like 'Sweet free money' and the limit was 66 bucks lol. Still easy money but just enough to pay for a small at domino's or whatever.
@StumpTownStu Why do they hate paying on shit like the oscars? A dollar is a dollar right... Elections aren't trivial to them I don't think because betting on elections, while not a big deal in Canada where I'm from or the US, is a huge business in Britain. But as to your guess, not at all actually. I was stunned when I logged in on the Saturday afternoon a couple hours after the networks had called in and saw that they paid me. I never had a negative exchange with them. My profits from 2015-2019 where a little under 15 k so i wouldn't imagine 40 k in five years should scare them... i really don't get it.
This is my take. And I can't speak for any book officially so take it with a grain of salt. I have an analogy when talking about sports books that are in actual casinos. I say they are like lumber to a lumber yard. Lumber yards don't make a ton of money on lumber. The margins suck. The incidence of damaged is high. It's just not super profitable. You know what is super profitable? Nuts and bolts, screws, nails, ect but you have to carry lumber because you're a lumber yard. Casinos make money hand over fist on slots. Then there's chance table games like roulette. There's conventions. Over priced drinks in over priced clubs. As big of an industry as sports wagering is, it's not a huge part of a brick and mortar casino's profits but they have to have books because, well, they're casinos. So a guy makes a haul on an election, and i'm not saying 25k is a haul, but a guy takes him for a chunk of change on an election, how would you think a sports book manager would feel about that?
R.I.P. #94 MARSHAWN KNEELAND - DC4L
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Quote Originally Posted by denniscrane:
@StumpTownStu Why do they hate paying on shit like the oscars? A dollar is a dollar right... Elections aren't trivial to them I don't think because betting on elections, while not a big deal in Canada where I'm from or the US, is a huge business in Britain. But as to your guess, not at all actually. I was stunned when I logged in on the Saturday afternoon a couple hours after the networks had called in and saw that they paid me. I never had a negative exchange with them. My profits from 2015-2019 where a little under 15 k so i wouldn't imagine 40 k in five years should scare them... i really don't get it.
This is my take. And I can't speak for any book officially so take it with a grain of salt. I have an analogy when talking about sports books that are in actual casinos. I say they are like lumber to a lumber yard. Lumber yards don't make a ton of money on lumber. The margins suck. The incidence of damaged is high. It's just not super profitable. You know what is super profitable? Nuts and bolts, screws, nails, ect but you have to carry lumber because you're a lumber yard. Casinos make money hand over fist on slots. Then there's chance table games like roulette. There's conventions. Over priced drinks in over priced clubs. As big of an industry as sports wagering is, it's not a huge part of a brick and mortar casino's profits but they have to have books because, well, they're casinos. So a guy makes a haul on an election, and i'm not saying 25k is a haul, but a guy takes him for a chunk of change on an election, how would you think a sports book manager would feel about that?
Casino brick and mortar are more likely to allow large wagers. This is because the casino operates an entire onsite entertainment industry.
If say one wins a huge chunk in black jack craps or book gambling more times than not the casino realizes this money back in form of better room longer stay show tickets food courts and the money simply recurcles within their walls.
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The other side.
Casino brick and mortar are more likely to allow large wagers. This is because the casino operates an entire onsite entertainment industry.
If say one wins a huge chunk in black jack craps or book gambling more times than not the casino realizes this money back in form of better room longer stay show tickets food courts and the money simply recurcles within their walls.
Quote Originally Posted by denniscrane: @StumpTownStu Why do they hate paying on shit like the oscars? A dollar is a dollar right... Elections aren't trivial to them I don't think because betting on elections, while not a big deal in Canada where I'm from or the US, is a huge business in Britain. But as to your guess, not at all actually. I was stunned when I logged in on the Saturday afternoon a couple hours after the networks had called in and saw that they paid me. I never had a negative exchange with them. My profits from 2015-2019 where a little under 15 k so i wouldn't imagine 40 k in five years should scare them... i really don't get it. This is my take. And I can't speak for any book officially so take it with a grain of salt. I have an analogy when talking about sports books that are in actual casinos. I say they are like lumber to a lumber yard. Lumber yards don't make a ton of money on lumber. The margins suck. The incidence of damaged is high. It's just not super profitable. You know what is super profitable? Nuts and bolts, screws, nails, ect but you have to carry lumber because you're a lumber yard. Casinos make money hand over fist on slots. Then there's chance table games like roulette. There's conventions. Over priced drinks in over priced clubs. As big of an industry as sports wagering is, it's not a huge part of a brick and mortar casino's profits but they have to have books because, well, they're casinos. So a guy makes a haul on an election, and i'm not saying 25k is a haul, but a guy takes him for a chunk of change on an election, how would you think a sports book manager would feel about that?
100% agree
Same thing with buffets, casinos lose money on them but they bring in traffic. Plus if the joint across the street has one then you gotta have one
With all the money being wagered on Super Bowl Sunday, a casino will make 100x on slots, tables, food, and drink that day if they have a nice sports book and people are watching the game there
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Quote Originally Posted by StumpTownStu:
Quote Originally Posted by denniscrane: @StumpTownStu Why do they hate paying on shit like the oscars? A dollar is a dollar right... Elections aren't trivial to them I don't think because betting on elections, while not a big deal in Canada where I'm from or the US, is a huge business in Britain. But as to your guess, not at all actually. I was stunned when I logged in on the Saturday afternoon a couple hours after the networks had called in and saw that they paid me. I never had a negative exchange with them. My profits from 2015-2019 where a little under 15 k so i wouldn't imagine 40 k in five years should scare them... i really don't get it. This is my take. And I can't speak for any book officially so take it with a grain of salt. I have an analogy when talking about sports books that are in actual casinos. I say they are like lumber to a lumber yard. Lumber yards don't make a ton of money on lumber. The margins suck. The incidence of damaged is high. It's just not super profitable. You know what is super profitable? Nuts and bolts, screws, nails, ect but you have to carry lumber because you're a lumber yard. Casinos make money hand over fist on slots. Then there's chance table games like roulette. There's conventions. Over priced drinks in over priced clubs. As big of an industry as sports wagering is, it's not a huge part of a brick and mortar casino's profits but they have to have books because, well, they're casinos. So a guy makes a haul on an election, and i'm not saying 25k is a haul, but a guy takes him for a chunk of change on an election, how would you think a sports book manager would feel about that?
100% agree
Same thing with buffets, casinos lose money on them but they bring in traffic. Plus if the joint across the street has one then you gotta have one
With all the money being wagered on Super Bowl Sunday, a casino will make 100x on slots, tables, food, and drink that day if they have a nice sports book and people are watching the game there
we have two govt sports book options in vancouver, canada.
one is multi-team, mega-juice and "bricks and mortar" retail.. but if it's in casinos, they are just another retailer. like a gas station
the other is electronic, you have to submit an application to join, not that much juice but pretty limited $$$ and they are very paranoid about money. do not like to lose even small amounts (on a net-basis. obv, you will have losing bets)
govt of canada is loosening the rules on single game betting.......... curious if it'll be B&M casinos. that would be sweet. take a few K to casino on friday night. and bet on college football. sunday morning NFL
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we have two govt sports book options in vancouver, canada.
one is multi-team, mega-juice and "bricks and mortar" retail.. but if it's in casinos, they are just another retailer. like a gas station
the other is electronic, you have to submit an application to join, not that much juice but pretty limited $$$ and they are very paranoid about money. do not like to lose even small amounts (on a net-basis. obv, you will have losing bets)
govt of canada is loosening the rules on single game betting.......... curious if it'll be B&M casinos. that would be sweet. take a few K to casino on friday night. and bet on college football. sunday morning NFL
one reason canadian govt are paranoid on sports betting.
ontario's sports betting service allowed you to BET ON GAMES THAT HAD ALREADY FINISHED.... AND NO DISCERNABLE $$$$$ LIMITS at corner store. people went and borrowed $100k from the mafia to bet... and THE GOVT PAID OUT. talk about bad lawyers.
g
2 things saved them massive $$$$$-loss. already loss was really significant
1) you needed to pick 3 games and only 2 games WERE EXPLOITABLE
2) the shortest odds game of the day (Syracuse football) lost. that was a very popular 3rd choice... situation might have been late enough in day that there's were that many 80%+ favorites left to bet on..
googlable if people are interested. i'll find the link
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one reason canadian govt are paranoid on sports betting.
ontario's sports betting service allowed you to BET ON GAMES THAT HAD ALREADY FINISHED.... AND NO DISCERNABLE $$$$$ LIMITS at corner store. people went and borrowed $100k from the mafia to bet... and THE GOVT PAID OUT. talk about bad lawyers.
g
2 things saved them massive $$$$$-loss. already loss was really significant
1) you needed to pick 3 games and only 2 games WERE EXPLOITABLE
2) the shortest odds game of the day (Syracuse football) lost. that was a very popular 3rd choice... situation might have been late enough in day that there's were that many 80%+ favorites left to bet on..
googlable if people are interested. i'll find the link
They talked about this on Follow the Money but they didn't directly link limiting of a sports account due to winning big with politics. I still think it relates to your situation. Most successful sports bettors over the long term are marked by an outfit/sports book and have their maximum bet lowered. Now what you said isn't really over the long term. However, I think that most books are looking for people who piss away money and reload constantly. If they know you're capable of winning more than 10 thousand and you're not giving back to them, then you don't appear to be a valuable customer. So you really need a backup option even though it's fucking bullshit. You should have the ability to beat the living hell out of these losers and their scumbag operations. Yeah, I don't respect any of these pieces of shit who try to steal money from everyone and give the worst fucking lines. It sucks for you because I have heard William Hill is fairly good with respect to betting lines. It's their fucking fault they didn't limit how much you could wager on the election. They're greedy idiots who misplayed their hand and now they're trying to fuck you over because they screwed up. There's not a whole lot you can do other than find another book that's more respectable and is run better. I'm not sure if that exists since most people are fucking losers and we're always better off when they're dead.
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They talked about this on Follow the Money but they didn't directly link limiting of a sports account due to winning big with politics. I still think it relates to your situation. Most successful sports bettors over the long term are marked by an outfit/sports book and have their maximum bet lowered. Now what you said isn't really over the long term. However, I think that most books are looking for people who piss away money and reload constantly. If they know you're capable of winning more than 10 thousand and you're not giving back to them, then you don't appear to be a valuable customer. So you really need a backup option even though it's fucking bullshit. You should have the ability to beat the living hell out of these losers and their scumbag operations. Yeah, I don't respect any of these pieces of shit who try to steal money from everyone and give the worst fucking lines. It sucks for you because I have heard William Hill is fairly good with respect to betting lines. It's their fucking fault they didn't limit how much you could wager on the election. They're greedy idiots who misplayed their hand and now they're trying to fuck you over because they screwed up. There's not a whole lot you can do other than find another book that's more respectable and is run better. I'm not sure if that exists since most people are fucking losers and we're always better off when they're dead.
Hey Jim how do payouts at Canadian casinos work in general? I believe my old man was up there gambling probably over a decade ago and he said the taxes on winnings were harsh. Just curious if that’s still the case
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Hey Jim how do payouts at Canadian casinos work in general? I believe my old man was up there gambling probably over a decade ago and he said the taxes on winnings were harsh. Just curious if that’s still the case
Most I ever played in the Canadian online market was absolute poker. Freaking nightmare for a platform. Most online poker players moved to poker stars or full tilt. The program could freeze you out and then time out the connection forcing a fold....
Never went back, To the Canadian run platforms.
Stripped from full tilt but that wasn't any big deal cause all the money I had was theirs through freerolls and a Ferguson challenge and built slowly over time.
So when it all folded it was theirs anyway ....
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Most I ever played in the Canadian online market was absolute poker. Freaking nightmare for a platform. Most online poker players moved to poker stars or full tilt. The program could freeze you out and then time out the connection forcing a fold....
Never went back, To the Canadian run platforms.
Stripped from full tilt but that wasn't any big deal cause all the money I had was theirs through freerolls and a Ferguson challenge and built slowly over time.
No taxes on gambling in Canada... Unless it's your main employment/earnings (weak paraphrase)
And even then they didn't/don't go after very many people... Google Kyle wilson..although not sure if KW got dinged or if people just thought it was him.. Also ME champ from Quebec Jonathan duhamel (name?)
Indian tribes associated with huge global sites AND canada-only and/or B&M are very different
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No taxes on gambling in Canada... Unless it's your main employment/earnings (weak paraphrase)
And even then they didn't/don't go after very many people... Google Kyle wilson..although not sure if KW got dinged or if people just thought it was him.. Also ME champ from Quebec Jonathan duhamel (name?)
Indian tribes associated with huge global sites AND canada-only and/or B&M are very different
I had made over ten grand-- over years it should be said-- before having a lot of success with this bet so yeah they have marked me as a 'proven winner' since i never had a losing year. But it's not like i had huge years until 2020 and even 25 k can't be that huge to them... you would think.
Since you seem familiar with all the shit books try to pull to prevent successful bettors from continue to bet, what do you think about the Bet Fair exchange... i know someone who would let me sign up with their name in a country they allow. Dude doesn't know anything about betting on politics but he's a family friend and said he'd be cool with it. The question is just whether or not they could investigate it and deny me winnings. Kind of freaks me out.
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@sicknesscity
I had made over ten grand-- over years it should be said-- before having a lot of success with this bet so yeah they have marked me as a 'proven winner' since i never had a losing year. But it's not like i had huge years until 2020 and even 25 k can't be that huge to them... you would think.
Since you seem familiar with all the shit books try to pull to prevent successful bettors from continue to bet, what do you think about the Bet Fair exchange... i know someone who would let me sign up with their name in a country they allow. Dude doesn't know anything about betting on politics but he's a family friend and said he'd be cool with it. The question is just whether or not they could investigate it and deny me winnings. Kind of freaks me out.
This angle is possible but it a question of logistics and trust. Having a friend overseas who participates in gambling is a good thing.
Trusting someone operating under the radar in a foreign country is not going to work out well.....
The possibility is the markets and showing you different market values as they adjust. Then as you work a system others can and mutual interests can be arranged....
England has least restrictive betting market. Allowing most online betting forums however the English Governments aware of each on these platforms for the sake of taxes as I am aware of.
Within the market systems offered by odds checker these markets can differ in regions of the world based on wagering platforms.....
Such as this game became clear today vs 2 days ago.
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This angle is possible but it a question of logistics and trust. Having a friend overseas who participates in gambling is a good thing.
Trusting someone operating under the radar in a foreign country is not going to work out well.....
The possibility is the markets and showing you different market values as they adjust. Then as you work a system others can and mutual interests can be arranged....
England has least restrictive betting market. Allowing most online betting forums however the English Governments aware of each on these platforms for the sake of taxes as I am aware of.
Within the market systems offered by odds checker these markets can differ in regions of the world based on wagering platforms.....
Brick and motor have always offered the best value.
Say you wish to place a wager on the Georgia runoff election for a sizable amount. Over 1000 .
Bovada offers this future.
Then placing a bet has a comp value. And the higher the stake the larger the value and the point of negotiations can take place. For 20000 bets in a future pool would give you a suit for a week and running meal tickets possibly shows offered.
Why ? Because they could utilize this. Cash revenue for 5 weeks and possibly till inauguration until payment was due.....
Where they have other ways to utilize currency.
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But as to high stake sums.
Brick and motor have always offered the best value.
Say you wish to place a wager on the Georgia runoff election for a sizable amount. Over 1000 .
Bovada offers this future.
Then placing a bet has a comp value. And the higher the stake the larger the value and the point of negotiations can take place. For 20000 bets in a future pool would give you a suit for a week and running meal tickets possibly shows offered.
Why ? Because they could utilize this. Cash revenue for 5 weeks and possibly till inauguration until payment was due.....
Yeah I should be more specific. The friend is a cousin of my fiancee and I trust him completely. He lives in the Dominican, a country which Bet Fair allows. So here's the tentative plan-- he signs up putting in all his information, gives me the password, and we fund the account with his credit card; i deposit the funds in his account so he has enough. I then bet on what I want using a VPN and when it comes time to withdraw he requests the withdrawal on his end and sends in his information. The only snag is they could investigate and see a VPN was used but i think this is unlikely? I'm not too worried about the markets being different based on region-- looking at the 2022 french election odds and 2024 us election odds-- so that should be fine.
I should say I reached out to Bet Fair and said you know what happens if you find out about bets made in violation of your terms of service and they said even then they might have to pay out and they cannot ever deny you the right to withdraw your original balance. So it seems relatively not dangerous lol, unless they are bullshiting me about not seizing funds.
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@nature1970
Yeah I should be more specific. The friend is a cousin of my fiancee and I trust him completely. He lives in the Dominican, a country which Bet Fair allows. So here's the tentative plan-- he signs up putting in all his information, gives me the password, and we fund the account with his credit card; i deposit the funds in his account so he has enough. I then bet on what I want using a VPN and when it comes time to withdraw he requests the withdrawal on his end and sends in his information. The only snag is they could investigate and see a VPN was used but i think this is unlikely? I'm not too worried about the markets being different based on region-- looking at the 2022 french election odds and 2024 us election odds-- so that should be fine.
I should say I reached out to Bet Fair and said you know what happens if you find out about bets made in violation of your terms of service and they said even then they might have to pay out and they cannot ever deny you the right to withdraw your original balance. So it seems relatively not dangerous lol, unless they are bullshiting me about not seizing funds.
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