Hillary Clinton Acceptance Speech props on 5Dimes

Hillary says Black Lives Matter -115

Hillary does not say Black Lives Matter +155

Hillary says Obamacare -110

Hillary does not say Obamacare -130

Hillary says Liberty Bell +700

Hillary does not say Liberty Bell -1500

Hillary says Cheesesteak +650

Hillary does not say Cheesesteak -1350

Hillary says Islam -110

Hillary does not say Islam -130

Hillary says Trump University +150

Hillary does not say Trump University -190

Hillary says Rocky Balboa +1500

Hillary does not say Rocky Balboa -4500

Hillary says Obama before Trump -170

Hillary says Trump before Obama +130

Hillary says Sanders before Trump +130

Hillary says Trump before Sanders -170

I'll have to think about these but these are my gut reactions. No bets in yet.

I believe she will say Black Lives Matter. 

Trump made such a point to have speakers say Blue Lives Matter and a Black preacher chant All Lives Matter continuously to whip the RNC crowd into a frenzy that I think the Dems will think it's their responsibility to acknowledge and say the words Black Lives Matter. This group is one of their cornerstones they need to galvanize to get out to the voting booth.

It's a bit iffy though with the police assassinations. I have to research what she has said publicly since the shootings with regard to BLM and if she said those very words.

I would think she will not say the word "Islam".

There is a raging debate in the political arena as to whether we should be using the words Islamic Terrorism. If she doesn't say that (and she won't) I can't see why she'd say Islam. But there have been attacks of late and more to come acknowledging ISIS etc. so this ones a bit on shaky ground. If it was the full phrase, will NOT "Islamic Terrorism", it would be a guarantee but Islam is more benign.

I can't see how she says Sanders before Trump.

Trump came after her with everything he had, including Christie's speech and I think she and her writers are frothing at the mouth to come back at him with double the firepower.

The others are uncertain or don't have much value IMO.

Those are just the initial thoughts, but no bets in yet. Things will be more solidified later in the week. I will say NONE of these have the value that Trump NOT saying BLM had but you get far better lines here too. More risk, more reward.

Well folks 5Dimes just added a prop bet that is giving away more FREE MONEY and further exemplifies the books don't know what the hell they are doing with exotics.

Yes, you'll eat chalk but it's about putting the bet in now and collecting on Thursday.

On 5Dimes they just added:

Hillary will NOT say "Blue Lives Matter" -280

Folks, I don't care what you think about Black Lives Matter or Blue Lives Matter.

No one cares what you are I think when it comes to making money.

The backstory on Blue Lives Matter is this: Whether or not there was good intent to honor cops with that phrase, Black Lives Matter and Democrats in the highest of positions simply do not say this phrase because they believe it to be a direct affront and/or mockery of the phrase and movement that is Black Lives Matter.

For Hillary to say these words is to essentially insult the BLM movement, on the grandest of all stages, from the very movement she need overwhelming support and votes from as Trump nips at her heels in battleground states!

I just finish watching 6 hours of campaign speeches Hillary made today and she didn't even remotely approach saying such a Blue Lives Matter, never mind say the words in full!

So again, I have no idea where the hell the books got off making such a line but this one is Free Money. She will not say this phrase.

The other ones above have some risk involved for better odds. But I'd put Will not Say Blue Lives Matter at -5000 if I were a line setter.

-280 is laughable.Books are just pulling the line out of their a** and the line will only skyrocket when people see it.

Another bet that is finalized.

This one is just about Free Money once again and you get great odds with this:

Hillary will not say "All Lives Matter" +125

Just like Blue Lives Matter, the phrase All Lives Matter is looked at as insulting to the BLM movement. 

As a Democrat you simply can't say it.

As a Democrat accepting the nomination for President, you definitely can't say it.

Hillary has said this phrase just once publicly in Ferguson, and she was roundly chastised for it here:

But she's now facing criticism on social media after using the phrase "all lives matter" — which has been used by some as pushback to the phrase "black lives matter." The latter phrase, which hung on a banner outside the church, was widely used by protesters in Ferguson and other cities.

Before using the phrase, Clinton was retelling an anecdote about the lessons she learned from her mother.

"I asked her, 'What kept you going?' Her answer was very simple. Kindness along the way from someone who believed she mattered. All lives matter."

To some in the pews, what Clinton said fell flat. Or worse:

"With her statement that all lives matter, that blew a lot of support that she may have been able to engender here," said Renita Lamkin, a pastor at the St. John AME Church in St. Charles. She is white and while protesting in Ferguson was hit in the gut with a rubber bullet. Her passion comes in part because her children are African-American.

"My children matter," she said. "And I need to hear my president say that the lives of my children matter. That my little black children matter. Because right now our society does not say that they matter. Black lives matter. That's what she needs to say."

Clinton's campaign points out she did say "black lives matter," late last year. But that didn't stop a flood of complaints on Facebook and Twitter after Clinton's speech.

You think she'll use it again? She hasn't said those words since that day.

You think her speechwriters aren't aware of this?

Come on.

I have NO IDEA how the books set these odds unless they have the transcript of the speech. And I don't even think the speech is fully written yet!

The first two yes. Those have been put in at the odds above.

As discussed, these odds have skyrocketed so we got in at the right time.

Does not say Blue Lives Matter has shot up from -280 to -530 (and rightfully so. That's a winner).

Does not say All lives matter has gone from +125 to -300 (another winner. She hasn't said those words in 6 straight speeches or at any public appearance since early June).

Now onto the other two:

Does not say Black Lives Matter has shot up to +220.

Now the moneymakers in these exotics are heavy chalk and very slight +ML's.

+220 is a hefty + ML.

Again, she has said it ONCE in TWO MONTHS and it was more in passing. The problem is that Trump went out of his way to defame BLM with the black preachers and black police chiefs she may just throw them a bone by saying it.

I would only bet the +220 if I did bet it given her previous speeches but I'm going to lay off this one.

Now to the last one. In 6 of 7 speeches, she didn't say Sanders once.

But now we have this entire DNC leak. And the problem with the DNC leak is this:

She can come right out and address Sanders to pander to his voting base with some sort of contrition (votes she desperately needs) or not mention him at all.

This latest development complicates the bet so I'm taking my $25 and laying off for now.

BUT we are not done! So don't put your Andrew Jackson and Lincoln in your pocket just yet!

Does not say Mike Pence at -155 is on my radar.

Why?

There is FAR too much to attack with Trump than to waste even a second of your breath on going after Mike Pence. No one cares about Mike Pence.

But there's even more reason not to go after Pence. His worst political moment came when he said there were definitely WMD's FOUND in Iraq, a position even Bush and Cheney wouldn't affirm.

He claimed we most certainly found them, an outlandish position for which there was and still is no evidence.

Well guess what was one of HIllary's worst political moments:

Voting to go to war with Iraq.

Go after Pence at all on Iraq and you remind everyone of your vote.

So I'm going to look into what are nice little odds here for the start of a progressive parlay. Won't say Mike Pence at -155 is on the radar but I haven't put it in yet.

Well Livian,

The heavy hitters were all out tonight: Michelle, Warren, and Bernie.

That's about as big a 3 as a big 3 can be at a DNC.

Now I'll have to go back and read the transcripts if I can get my hands on them but none of them said Black Lives Matters.

Not even Michelle. (Someone correct me if I am wrong but I didn't hear it once).

Now when you have two bets: Say and Doesn't Say, it's obvious that "Say" is harder to achieve. And right now, say is heavy chalk for the words BLM. That is a hard bet to hit with all that chalk. BLM is not the word Trump. The speechwriters have to put a specific phrase in the speech.

Right now, I'm definitely leaning Does Not say BLM and it's sitting there at a sweet +170.

As reported by the Daily News, Trump has ONE PERCENT of the Black Vote!

If she says it or doesn't say it, no blacks are defecting to Trump!

And now with the DNC wiki-leaks fraud against Bernie, her base, the white Bernie supporters are the ones to be pandered to and I'm not sure they are in the mood to hear about BLM over progressive politics like fully subsidized college tuition. She absolutely needs those votes far beyond the black vote that she already has (they just have to show up at the polls for her which is a worry but Bill can get them going).

Right now Does not say "All Lives Matter" is -600

Right now Does not say "Blue Lives Matter is -580.

LOL that Blue lives has more value than All Lives!

So we got in with massive value on both.

I'm really thinking she's not going to say "Lives Matter" of any kind.

And here's the kicker:

I just finished reading the transcript of the speech she gave to the NAACP here on July 18, 2016...THE NAACP FOLKS:

https://fortune.com/2016/07/18/hillary-clinton-speech-naacp-transcript/

And get this...she did not say Black Lives Matter in that speech!

Now if you are not going to say it to that room, how in the world are you going to say it in Philly at the DNC (and she hasn't said it in her 5 most recent speeches either).

Since we are going to win with Blue and All and we will be up regardless, we can freeroll. Fu** it. It's $25 for god's sake.

Let's take our big $25 smackers and nab the +170 while it's still there with:

She Does Not say Black Lives Matter.

Quote Originally Posted by THEMUGG:

Posters like this waltz in and say, "Oh come on, she HAS to say Black Lives Matter! It's Hillary Clinton for god's sake!"

Then they realize they did absolutely no research for the pick and the people who did do the research showed that she didn't say those words to the very crowd who you'd expect it to be said to the most...by far...the NAACP.

No matter. It's burning money bag time. It's a free roll anyhow. The first two will hit.

I have a new lean Livian but I have to read tonight's speech transcripts before I put this in (because tonight was the war hawk night).

The lean is Hillary does not say "Islam" -175.

Here's one reason why:

The DNC has a prayer room set up in the convention space and the only people of faith using it are...Islamic.

https://rightwingnews.com/democrats/dnc-provides-interfaith-prayer-space-convention-islam-religion-present/

(Yes I will use a 'rightwingnews' website to win money).

The message of the DNC has been unity to counter the RNC's convention of division, fear, wall-building and "law and order" messages.

Whether you disagree with the last sentence is irrelevant to the bet. That is what the majority of Dems believe and what they are told to believe (what I believe is irrelevant to the bet).

In that unity, they brought up the Mothers of the recent slain and have had a softer message on the war on terror. In fact, they simply aren't using the word terrorism much at all, if at all (I know for certain they didn't say 'ISIS' or 'terrorism' on the first night).

It makes me believe Hillary will have a softer more controlled tone than Donald to make it come across she is the antithesis of him. Softer tone and stance = no attacks on those who are Muslim.

Hence, she will not insult the faith of Islam directly and simply can't say the word if that is the case (to say the word as a unifier would be a mistake IMO).

There is one wrinkle 5Dimes could screw us on.

'Islam' makes up the portion of the word "Islamic" which could be used if she does reference terrorism, particularly "Islamic terrorism" and I don't know if 5Dimes would try to screw the bettor if she said those two words (and they've screwed many a better with wrestling props). But GOPers here know Dems don't even like to use those two words anyway which fits with Hillary.

I'll think about it. It's not at a bad price at -175. Gotta read tonight's transcripts first. I'll post if I lock it in. 

Okay, I finalized this one.

Why?

Read below about the first two days of the DNC:

Halfway through the 2016 Democratic National Convention, and there's been just one reference to ISIS and Islamist terrorism.

After the first full day of the convention and more than 60 speakers, Republican Party communications director Sean Spicer noted the fact in a tweet. It was quickly picked up by a number of conservatives in the media, which triggered a "fact-checking effort" by the left-leaning Politifact.

Their verdict:

Based on our searches of C-SPAN closed-captioning text, Congressional Quarterly transcripts and other video archiving services, we couldn't find any speaker who mentioned "ISIS," "Islamic," "terror," "terrorist" or "terrorism" during the first day of the convention ... the email accurately reflects what was said—or more precisely, not said—from the podium in Philadelphia. We rate the statement True.

To be fair, on the same day, Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton did use the word "terrorists" once in her speech. But she was speaking to the Veterans of Foreign Wars convention—more than 500 miles to the southwest in Charlotte, N.C.—not the Democrat convention in Philadelphia.

So, on the second day of the convention, when the Democratic Party was supposed to be making its case for why the first woman to receive a major-party presidential nomination should, in fact, become the 45th President of the United States, they managed to eke out one reference to ISIS (or ISIL, Islamic State, or Daesh—pick your preferred term). That's when former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright offered a rebuke of Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump.

"He has undermined our fight against ISIS by alienating our Muslim partners," she said. "He has weakened our standing in the world by threatening to walk away from our friends and our allies—and by encouraging more countries to get nuclear weapons."

But while she attacked Trump's policies, she offered no Democrat alternative at all. Even the Washington Post—which has never been mistaken for a Trump media ally—offered this analysis:

In contrast to her detailed denunciation of Trump's "dark vision of America," however, Albright barely touched on Clinton's approach to terrorism. She praised the Democratic nominee for her tenure at the State Department, saying she saw her "restore our country's reputation around the world," but she didn't endorse her current strategy for defeating ISIS—indeed she scarcely mentioned it.

In an election where national security has become a major issue for voters—and while the sitting secretary of state has said air conditioning is a bigger threat than ISIS—the lack of coherent messaging will likely hurt Democrats in November.

I read through all the Day 3 speech transcripts of Obama, Kaine, and Biden and not one mentioned Islam/Islamic/Islamist.

Finally, I found this (I knew this and many here know this but I wanted the reference):

All these things are good for this bet.

So that will be all:

Hillary does not say "Blue Lives Matter" -280

Hillary does not say "All Lives Matter" +125

Hillary does not say "Black Lives Matter" +170

Hillary does not say "Islam"/"Islamic" -170

I like the chalk as every chalk bet hit in the Trump RNC speech props and the we only need to hit one of two AllLM or BlackLM to get paid on the +ML's.