Would you like it done using JUST your data? Or are you trying to consider other points? Are you saying this is either/or? Or are you saying one is more than the other? Or are you saying one is more or less than the other RIGHT now?
What exactly would be your entire question.
I think you guys should clear that up first. Otherwise, you both have points. Maybe not in the same timeframe or the same amount or resultant from the same policies and extraneous influences.
If that is not cleared up you will continue to talk over each other and around the exact issue and not completely address it.
Clear that up first.
One thing you do have to do is use supporting data and things that back up your opinion and it helps to use people that have studied that exact branch of economics that you are discussing. Even if you have a general view, but refuse to accept that someone else may be more of an expert in a particular segment is very close-minded.
There are a lot of areas to look at. But to take JUST two sets of data and try to extrapolate or defend a position that may have multiple other factors is very, very dicey to do.
That is the reason you should back up your views with people that have studied it. A lot of times they can also explain it better than you can. That ALWAYS lends more credence to a position that is not emotionally-backed.
Hopefully, that can help you guys with this discussion.
I can leave you to it. But I am very interested in it and may still butt in from time to time.
@Raiders22
I am not expecting a data based discussion from you or him or anyone here...it never happens. My point is based on the comment YOU made on the dig to me and his comments, that is it. Dont come and whine about me not providing links and data when you do not do any of that yourself and he does not either. I did provide data, you have not and he has not. I also provided two data sets, GDP from 2010 to 2020 and from 2020 to 2023 with inflation stats to correlate.
If you want to discuss data then provide it and this is not MY data, GDP is not mine, it is published data available for anyone to use, the stats I put are not mine they are public data so it is not my theory or idea it is taking data that is available and drawing conclusions based only on data.
@wallstreetcappers
My comment to you was that he asked for the links to your sources. What is so hard about doing that? Then you guys can decide to discuss that.
I know you never provide links for your discussions.
Mine are always data-backed. There are plenty in what I provided. They also lead to others that have more.
All of my discussions are always backed up by data I can provide. Whether in politics or sports or investing.
That was my only issue to you. Both of you have some points and both of you missed some points.
That was my reason for telling you that you need to clear up one question at a time when discussing things, otherwise folks tend to get confused easily.
@fubah2
I suppose I woulda done the same. Biden and admin surprises me. Actually slightly better than I expected especially noteworthy with a severely divided congress. Solid leadership
Good God sir you are beautiful right here 
This needed to be said . This is accurate , and this is razor sharp . If this forum is supposed to grow , then this is the seed , with your honesty the sunlight and your bravado the water . Good for you , and thank you
@Zeus4par
What many keep forgetting is we have not only a split congress but the most polarized in history. And we seem to be headed for another split congress in the coming election cycle again. The republicans - with few exceptions - are dug in to oppose vigorously anything the Dems propose regardless how good it may be for the country. If Dems came out in favor of Motherhood, apple pie, and NFL football, the republicans would quickly oppose it and call the Dems baby-eating/pedophile/communists.
Meanwhile the Dems are indeed more open to compromise but it has to lean their way for sure.
This means whomever the next president is he/she won't accomplish much at all.
I feel Biden's already achieved more than any president will in their first term through at least the next 3 full presidential election cycles --- *BECAUSE* it is that cutthroat divided and nothing will get done. I've said this many times before that the nation is better off when either party has the trifecta as opposed to a divided congress where NOTHING will get done.
respect for calling it even brother
you are doing your part in promoting growth .
The evolution of a man never stops , and when they become complacent , and do not feel the need to learn , or to grow anymore , because they have it “ figured out “ , they are essentially dead while breathing .
How can we tell our children the things that we try to teach them , and then not actually go forward and do those same things ourselves ?
Sounds false to me .
Now I understand that there are certain things a man will believe in that can not be cracked or broken into , because conviction is a powerful force .
I am the same way as well . But if you think that 50 , 60 , or 70 years plus living on this planet Earth gives you the privilege of being impervious to the questioning of your very debatable actions , then you are sadly mistaken
that amount of time in the grand scheme of things , in essence , is nothing , much like the contents of your bellies , after passing those ham sandwiches around the table for what seems like an eternity , while you die from starvation in the process …
First off, Wall, I believe it's incorrect to only look at "GDP" in your analysis. "Demand" and its related "Economic Activity" has a number of different drivers, among them (1) The Government Spending, (2) Consumer Spending, and (3) Business Spending. My contention this whole time is that the "Government and its ridiculous Spending" has had an outsize affect on the American Economy (i.e. GDP) ... Thus, we need to look at data that takes into account Federal Spending as a function of GDP.
Federal Spending as a Percentage of GDP
@wallstreetcappers
You continually site GDP of the last 10-12 years, and inflation never budging, but the graph clearly shows federal spending as a percentage of the American Economy actually went "down." So, the Government did "Not" play a heavy hand in driving economic activity all those years (a good thing), and as you might expect, inflation was very muted in this time period .
Contrast that with the Federal Spending that was out of control and took a much greater share of the Economy. A 10% jump in less than a year ! What's most troubling about this, and I stated this earlier, is that this spending was "not" needed. The Economy was recovering from the Pandemic just fine on its own, but Biden and Democrats did the equivalent of pouring gasoline on a fire that was already sustaining itself. A bonfire ensued !
So, how was the economy supposed to absorb all these new "Dollars" (i.e. gasoline) poured onto the economy all at once ? It didn't, which is why we get the nasty inflation problem that still exists today. My contention is that you solve the inflation problem by tackling its root cause... and that is Federal Spending. Fortunately, House Republicans are in control of their chamber, so Federal Spending should be much more restrictive.
I have to give credit to RAIDERS, since I think he already mentioned this data point in a past thread. It is an important one to consider. One cannot just view GDP in isolation as you have, because it gives you no perspective into the drivers of economic activity.
@wallstreetcappers
I have also cited "Total Debt as a percentage of GDP," but you've chosen to ignore that data as well.. It similarly shows a parabolic rise in 2020 and subsequent years, due to all the uncontrolled spending.
Total Public Debt as a Percentage of GDP
It isn't that RAIDERS and myself haven't explained ourselves earlier to you. We did, you just chose to ignore the affects of Government Spending on the Economy , and its resultant inflation problem.
@Rush51
Government spending has to be strong enough to make a massive spike with inflation, we are not talking about a small blip and then gone, I quote GDP because thats the whole enchilada that is all goods and services produced in the economy, its the big measure. So my contention is that given the effort made by the FED for a decade and an increase in GDP of 50% over that span of time (and we know government spending never goes down so it has gone up as debt has gone up) they could not force inflation higher by pumping USD into banks and financial firms and GDP growth didnt generate inflation of any kind...none.
Then all of a sudden in a 3 year period of time with marginal GDP growth, inflation ramps up 500-700-1000 percent? Do you know the demand magnitude required to ramp inflation even 1%?
I would like to see a graph of consumer spending to validate an 5-7-10x move in inflation, I actually think the government stimmy merely substituted the decline in GDP growth during Covid (we did see a big GDP drop) as people lost jobs and lost wages, the stimmy carried people over the gap and it was not free cashola given to a healthy economy that stimulated any sort of inflation. But if your contention is right (I do not think so) then you should easily be able to find consumer spending numbers to show that inflation was demand based and not from a supply shock. I have not seen a wide spread large move in corporate earnings and revenues to conclude that a massive consumer based influx generated an exponential move in sales and profits, so where did this tidal wave of spending go, what sectors and companies? Even Apple has not double or triple sales in the last three years, many corps are just hanging around treading water. The FED ramped cash levels more than the government did and they tried for over a decade with zero results..I dont see how what you suggest is even in the ballpark but for sure show me these ramped consumer spending numbers and lets try to extrapolate that to a 5-7-10X inflation move.
@Rush51
Government spending is what relative to total GDP? Debt levels have gone up for the last decade so that is not new. I want to see data which supports your contention that this inflation move in the last THREE years came from government spending...show that, show how debt levels in the last THREE years could push inflation when a 50% increase in total GDP made no dent, the FED printing TRILLIONS made no dent...government spending under Obama and Trump rose strongly, no dent. So explain using data what happened in THREE years from government spending and debt that would move inflation when 10 years of FED cash, government spending, GDP growth did not cause ANY inflation.
Id suggest that deficit spending is not solely new cash into the hands of the consumer either...so the debt we are racking up is due to existing multi decade long obligations that we fund with debt, it isnt like new new new programs and new freebies are what came from our debt levels, many of our government outlays for decades have come from deficit spending, some social programs which are multi decade duration come from deficit spending...dont mix deficit spending and debt to mean a new stream of cash which goes into the pockets of the consumer...most goes to corps, much goes to other countries and wars which does not get spent in this country.
@wallstreetcappers
I think you are neglecting the large affects of "fiscal policy" the last few years... Like Trillions of it. I don't question that the FED had an aggressive "monetary policy" after the financial crisis and subsequent years (because it did), but the FED was super aggressive in 2020 w/ COVID ... "AND" Policy makers showered the economy w/ Trillions of dollars. This was a powerful combination that turned out was not needed... and inflation reared its ugly head. You and I are debating this, but the FED couldn't even begin to understand the powerful affects of huge "Monetary & Fiscal Policy" forces on the economy... Calling it "transitory."
As soon as the Economy was allowed to "re-open" during COVID, economic activity took off, and lots of jobs came back. ( I don't need to show you the "V" shaped recovery in jobs). So, the moral of the story is that the FED and policy makers (wrongly) thought COVID would have an unprecedented affect on the economy. Once the economy re-opened, it had all these extra dollars flooding into the economy that couldn't be absorbed.. prices couldn't do anything but shoot higher.
You have to quantify it though...so yes economy open and people went and spent money but that does not generate inflation especially in a short period of time. Inflation is rising prices, that is generated either with excess demand or insufficient supply that is it. It is my opinion that corps had some supply in reserve that carried over for a good period of time and that is why inflation did not come out strong during Covid and right after it started to decline.
What I would like to see is what data/charts you have that can show consumer spending that ramped and then quantify that to inflation. To move inflation exponentially isnt from anything less than exponential increase in demand. To shift a demand curve and create inflation it takes a big heavy move in consumption and given that GDP which is the summation of goods and services went up X ammt, it would not support the contention that consumer demand created inflation, that the stimmy from the government generated an EXPONENTIAL move for inflation...we are speaking of 500-600-800-1000 percent increase in a very short period of time. I do not see how there is any other conclusion that supply curve shifted and still has not recovered, and that component input prices are still out of balance.
I would like the same data you are asking of me, which I provided from you and not that just government spending went up because relatively speaking government spending increase did not generate a proportional GDP move...that means the spending as I said above was not NEW freebies, it was the budgeted programs already existing being funded and a MODERATE increase in consumer cash, but that the cash went strongly to offset job and income loss many had during Covid. I know many many people who lost income and jobs during Covid, corps did layoffs and reductions and MANY service industry workers completely lost their incomes and the stimmy replaced that to a degree but did not generate NEW consumer cash to stimulate inflation much at all.
Guys I like the interaction
now give each other the data that you both so desire , so that we can see the culmination of all of this , cuz right now it’s like a cliffhanger , and I’m just dying to see the next installment in the series ……
right now shit’s paused , and the flaming car is suspended in midair…..
will it make it to the other side ? Did the occupants jump out before going over ? Did they save themselves by rolling on the grassy hill ? as they watch the fiery explosion down below ? Did they land in dog doodie thus ruining their new khaki pants ? Tune in next week to find out . Same bat time . Same bat channel …
I think it’s time to give each other a little of what you both want so this conversation can move forward because we are spinning our wheels here ……
enjoyable nonetheless so thanks
No expert in economics but I would say "All of the above". And also believe it is/was very predictable.
First we had lockdowns, then we had stimulus after stimulus. About $5 trillion spent on COVID between Trump and Biden admins.
Then we act like everything is normal and start ramping up more federal spending, do nothing to stop a war in the Ukraine, add sanctions that hurt everyone and then wonder why inflation hits.
@UNIMAN
I can agree with summary, But when it comes to spending the Right side of the voting isle forgets when given the chance they spend like sailors on shore leave! Republicans spend as much, if not more, than the Democrats !And the Democratic party never obstructs the raising of the limit a few individuals voting against it for politics is far different than the whole party obstructing its raising.
Now one could say or argue that the Democrats use it to run up discretionary spending and then talk about how evil the Republicans are that they will allow the government to shut down. But to me it’s a disingenuous arguments. Democrats almost always propose new taxes to pay for their discretionary spending, making it debt neutral. Of course, that sets Republican’s anul hair’s on fire, being the party that spends and cuts taxes without regard to the national debt for own there benefits This has been a rerun drama sense Reagan’s 8 year residency.
It really strikes a nerve when the Republican leaning folks bang the drum about debt & spending with misleading statistics & data when reality they are just a political weapon for hypocritical conservatives….And it get worse every 2 years ? When I think or here the terms Squad or MAGA… I want to hold my nose and stick my finger down my throat! The actions of Groups like ANTIFA and all the fringe counter groups will and are truly hurtful to our country…..Needs to end hopefully in my lifetime!
@wallstreetcappers
The graphs provided in the links were all you needed to understand the relationship between government spending and the American Economy. Just for the record, "Your" position is in the minority. I have heard many economists speak on the subject, and most say the same about too much "government" spending causing inflation. Most notable, Larry Summers (a democrat) was warning of the consequences well before inflation took off.. Common sense just tells you when you have a significant uptick in new $$ entering the economy in a very short period of time, it has to go somewhere, and when the economy can't absorb it... well, you can connect the dots..
And your comment, " What I would like to see is what data/charts you have that can show consumer spending that ramped and then quantify that to inflation, tells me you "Still" don't understand the problem. You say you want to see "Consumer Spending" .. I could say I want to see "Business Spending"... but to what avail? Government spending entered all facets of the economy, consumer (hello stimulus checks), AND business (how many Trillion Dollar bills has Biden passed). So analyzing either in isolation is pointless.. It's GDP, the totality of economic output and its relationship to government spending that needs to be understood !!
And that has already been pointed to you, which you ignored...
* It's clear to me you can't begin to understand the problem if you are not asking the right questions *
**I think the big picture takeaway of this discussion is that "lefties" (yourself included) don't acknowledge in any way, shape or form the consequences of Trillion Dollar spending bills & Money showered on the consumer during COVID. It is absurd that none of you,.... "None" .. ever acknowledge Government Spending and its affects on the Economy. Just how big do you guys want our Central Government to be ??
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