Political Betting Thread

This thread is solely for the discussion of good political wagers. It is NOT for general political bantering. It will NOT be moved to box. Let's have a good discussion on winning wagers an why. I have no problem laying higher odds (think money line favorites) for winning plays so supporting a -1000 shot doesn't make you square.  I'd love to hear what you might know based on insider or location stuff. 

Maybe, I can get a political game going. I'll check with management, but something like $1000 to wager, who wins the most units for some Covers apparel. I'll do a separate thread if they approve. 

Here are my immediate thoughts (using Bookmaker lines)

Definite plays:

New Hampshire-Biden -375. This line just dropped and I am not clear why. Biden is up by 11 points in the recent polls. The only thing I can think is that Gov. Sununu said that he thinks Trump will win NH (but he does not publicly support him and Sununu has a 70% approval rating). In 2016, similar polls had Clinton up 4 points and she won by less than 1%. Trump is not popular in the Northeast and I don't see that changing in two weeks. 

Graham over Harrison (S.C. Senate)-320. Every time I see a poll showing Harrison close, I am doing cartwheels. This is simple really. The black turnout will be huge meaning the white turnout will also be huge. Also, assuming that many registered S.C Republicans aren't supporting Trump (and that is statistically true since he is up by single digits), if they assume Biden will win, they will not want the Dems to take the Senate. I expect this to go to -450 by election day. 

Leans: 

Trump wining Florida-140. This has moved in Trumps direction and I think it is also simple: Biden doesn't need Florida. Resources are better spent elsewhere where he has a lead. I have not verified this but according to Drudge, Biden is spending 2-1 in AZ, Mich, PA, and Minn as compared to FL.

Arizona Senate race, Kelly over McSally. I view Arizona as the new Virginia. It is trending blue. Wall, thoughts?

Race I am watching:

Iowa Senate. Bookmaker had this as a -113 even last week. But Trump clearly wins that state. Break to the incumbent? 

Trump to win Florida is -125 at Bovada. I’ve been watching this line. 

I think he’ll do much better with the Hispanic vote there this time around. 

Trumps tie for the debate tomorrow: 

Solid -160

Striped +200 

I like striped 

Oooooo, I wonder if I can get that tie bet at bookmaker. 

What are factors in the past that led to higher voting turnout for Hispanics? Also, I haven't really looked but are his numbers with Hispanics much better in FL than Arizona (I think it is possible given that he has taken a harder line against Cuba). 

DJ, a little while ago I took a friendly wager from a buddy of mine, he bet Trump -155 ago. That means I have a Biden +155 wager at hand. Florida would be a very close contest state as always, I guess. Florida Hispanics or Latinos, i.e. Cuban Americans traditionally lean to GOP. So, Trump should have upper hand over Biden from Florida Americans. On the other hand, Trump is losing grip from many Florida seniors due to his mismanaging of Covid-19 crisis. Trump probably need this crucial state's electoral votes in that he is trailing in other battleground states.

Except for 1992, when it (Florida) sided with incumbent George Bush, the state has voted with the winner in every presidential election since 1964.*

*https://www.270towin.com/states/Florida    

dj,  ...a great idea for an interesting thread!!

Count me in.

But, but what about claiming to take   REPUBLICANS to win Alabama -10,000 ???

Or,   DEMOCRATS to win Massachusetts -10,000 ???   etc, etc.....

None of us would ever lay REAL money to win $100 at those odds even if they are likely gimmees.

Perhaps nothing over -1000 should be included ?!?!   Your thoughts...

You should be the ref as to what is or is not a valid bet, as well as monitor for all the stats.

If we do it, what I’m thinking is that everyone will have $1000 bank roll, so making those bets would make no sense.

count me in too

but curious how u might do this

if each pretend bet is to win $100  but with a br of just $1000  then a pick on a state to vote republican at -1000 odds mean we have used our entire br and so only get one pick .  there r many i would love to pick !!

u could get 10 members with a perfect 1-0 record  and nobody higher .

maybe a higher starting br  ?

DJ,

Kelly is coming off as a smooth, calm reasonable person while McSally cannot control her temper and comes off like a lunatic hothead just like she did against Sinema. I am not sure AZ is pushing blue rather McSally is just a terrible candidate and without the freebie to the position I dont think she can win an election vs a reasonable and sensible opponent. 

Certain zones are for sure DEM here and those zones are growing but you still have the conservative core here and I see that with the hilarious fear signs and ads that the RNC uses as their bread and butter every cycle.

Kelly is winning that. Might be the best bet on the board. Arizona might be turning blue. A lot of Biden-Harris signs in yards in my area. Still some Trump ones too, but not anywhere near the Trump signs I saw in 2016. 

What are the odds that Hunter’s laptop is actually Rudy’s laptop....?

lock

I like Trump to win Texas -350 

I’m looking at different things on Bovada and I see they have odds for Democratic candidate 2024 

AOC +300 

Biden +300 

Harris +350 

Warren +800 

Sanders +1000 

1. Who would lock up funds for that long. 

2. How is AOC the favorite. 

Harris seems like the only legitimate wager and that's only if she's the incumbent Vice President.

Correcting some obvious "disinformation" regarding Michigan Seante race,

Peters is leading handily using an average among numerous RECENT polls

from RealClearPolitics (a right-biased website)

Michigan Senate - James  vs Peters +4.7 pts

Peters +5  Reuters
Peters +6  MIRS
Peters +5  CNBC
Peters +7  The Hill
James +1  Trafalgar *
Peters +6  EPIC-MRA
Peters +1  NYT/Siena
Peters +3  CBS News
Peters +10 Emerson
Peters +5  Detroit News

James ahead of Peters on the Trafalgar poll is huge. Plenty good enough for me. If I can. Put my 1,000 on James to win the Michigan senatorial race from Peter's. 

i definitely wouldnt put money on james since he is clearly way behind peters +4.7 in michigan senate race

I am teaching you everything I know KellyM! Looking forward. James will be the 2nd biggest story on 3 November after he defeats Peters!

Well this is a handicapping website first and foremost and we believe in REAL numbers, not wild nor wishful guesses.

Gotta have solid, logistical, analytics to support laying cash on any bet.  Otherwise it's a fool's bet with weak value.

Wall:

I agree. I think that is a wager I will be watching. 

Detox:

There is literally no way that Texas goes D. I will be paying attention to the numbers. Also, the only way to tie up money for four years is with something that nets over 50% investment (to match normal savings). 

All:

Is Michigan available on other sites? Its not on bookmaker. 

  Yes.

On BetCRIS, Michigan:  

Republicans +205     versus    Good Guys -255

On Bet365, Michigan:

Republicans +200   versus  Good Guys -275

5dimes showing bets but no lines yet.

 Personally, Michigan is a fav I will lay large *IF* there are no more last ditch, desperation "October Surprises" from the trump crime family and his accomplices.

Trump won by the narrowest of margins in 2016:   0.2% points (10,704 votes)

And that was BEFORE they elected Democrat GOV Whitmer -- who is very popular.

It was just an observation circus clown.

Obviously, I did not say Biden is going to win Arizona based on yard signs. You seriously have no critical thinking skills. 

Indeed it is. Looks like biggest lock on the board. McSally is hated here. She isn't even viewed as legitimate since she got blown out by Sinema. 

Minnesota Senate race is a dead heat with Republican Jason Lewis in statistical tie with far Left BLM lover and enthusiast Tina Smith. Tina was elected to the vacant seat when Senator Franken was booted in 2018.

Early indications are Minnesotans do not want to be a 'Somalia' number 2!