Goldman Sachs cuts US recession odds to 15% as economic optimism grows
The report, titled “Soft Landing Summer,” pointed to a series of encouraging economic indicators on inflation and the jobs market that suggest the US economy will avoid the recession many feared. Tamping down inflation - without throwing the economy into recession - is what’s called a “soft landing,” something the Fed has only achieved once in the past 60 years! Wall Street economists have been forced to repeatedly postpone or even cancel their recession forecasts as Biden's economy proves resilient. Goldman Sachs pointed to “solid” job growth and rising real (inflation-adjusted) wages that should allow real disposable income to “reaccelerate” next year.
@fubah2
Even though it's only a forecast this is still encouraging news for the US economy
2
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Goldman Sachs cuts US recession odds to 15% as economic optimism grows
The report, titled “Soft Landing Summer,” pointed to a series of encouraging economic indicators on inflation and the jobs market that suggest the US economy will avoid the recession many feared. Tamping down inflation - without throwing the economy into recession - is what’s called a “soft landing,” something the Fed has only achieved once in the past 60 years! Wall Street economists have been forced to repeatedly postpone or even cancel their recession forecasts as Biden's economy proves resilient. Goldman Sachs pointed to “solid” job growth and rising real (inflation-adjusted) wages that should allow real disposable income to “reaccelerate” next year.
@fubah2
Even though it's only a forecast this is still encouraging news for the US economy
I know there are a lot of people who love Canada in here, can they fill us in on the housing market and their awesome 5 year mortgage rates? Pretty sure a lot of home owners are getting hit with higher rates, how long can they keep up mortgage payments before they default? What a sham of a home loan program they have up there.
Rate of mortgage delinquencies is kept low by Canadian banks helping borrowers with relief plans, payment deferrals and extended amortization. 2008 financial crisis was a global disaster but Canadian banks did well. Comparable to big 10 US banks, they are more secure, capitalized, diversified and regulated than small banks in US and Europe.
2
Quote Originally Posted by BigGame90:
I know there are a lot of people who love Canada in here, can they fill us in on the housing market and their awesome 5 year mortgage rates? Pretty sure a lot of home owners are getting hit with higher rates, how long can they keep up mortgage payments before they default? What a sham of a home loan program they have up there.
Rate of mortgage delinquencies is kept low by Canadian banks helping borrowers with relief plans, payment deferrals and extended amortization. 2008 financial crisis was a global disaster but Canadian banks did well. Comparable to big 10 US banks, they are more secure, capitalized, diversified and regulated than small banks in US and Europe.
Anybody that lives here in the U.S. and says they love Canada doesn't even understand the big picture. We think our waiting times to get medical procedures are long in this country? Try waiting many months, if not "years." You will die before you get your surgery if it's for a lifesaving predicament.... there's a price to pay for "socialized medicine"
In Canada, doctors prioritize the sickest patients so they are treated early in hospitals. Non-serious surgeries might wait. Average life span is longer for Canadians than for Americans. US based Commonwealth fund rates Canada healthcare system ahead of US system which is the most unaffordable in the world with millions of Americans under insured. Better for sick patients to be on a waiting list in Canada than to be uninsured in the US. No Canadian citizen becomes bankrupt because of medical bills.
2
Quote Originally Posted by Rush51:
Anybody that lives here in the U.S. and says they love Canada doesn't even understand the big picture. We think our waiting times to get medical procedures are long in this country? Try waiting many months, if not "years." You will die before you get your surgery if it's for a lifesaving predicament.... there's a price to pay for "socialized medicine"
In Canada, doctors prioritize the sickest patients so they are treated early in hospitals. Non-serious surgeries might wait. Average life span is longer for Canadians than for Americans. US based Commonwealth fund rates Canada healthcare system ahead of US system which is the most unaffordable in the world with millions of Americans under insured. Better for sick patients to be on a waiting list in Canada than to be uninsured in the US. No Canadian citizen becomes bankrupt because of medical bills.
In Canada, doctors prioritize the sickest patients so they are treated early in hospitals. Non-serious surgeries might wait. Average life span is longer for Canadians than for Americans. US based Commonwealth fund rates Canada healthcare system ahead of US system which is the most unaffordable in the world with millions of Americans under insured. Better for sick patients to be on a waiting list in Canada than to be uninsured in the US. No Canadian citizen becomes bankrupt because of medical bills.
The MAGA hysteria suggesting thousands of Canadians die horribly every year while on waiting lists for critical surgery is not only a myth of epic proportions but consider the common source of those unfounded claims -- MAGAs, who ironically insist there was MASSIVE ELECTION FRAUD perpetrated by democrats to steal the presidency from the sex-offender who trailed in virtually every consensus poll for the year leading up to the election.
2
Quote Originally Posted by thirdperson:
In Canada, doctors prioritize the sickest patients so they are treated early in hospitals. Non-serious surgeries might wait. Average life span is longer for Canadians than for Americans. US based Commonwealth fund rates Canada healthcare system ahead of US system which is the most unaffordable in the world with millions of Americans under insured. Better for sick patients to be on a waiting list in Canada than to be uninsured in the US. No Canadian citizen becomes bankrupt because of medical bills.
The MAGA hysteria suggesting thousands of Canadians die horribly every year while on waiting lists for critical surgery is not only a myth of epic proportions but consider the common source of those unfounded claims -- MAGAs, who ironically insist there was MASSIVE ELECTION FRAUD perpetrated by democrats to steal the presidency from the sex-offender who trailed in virtually every consensus poll for the year leading up to the election.
Quote Originally Posted by BigGame90: I know there are a lot of people who love Canada in here, can they fill us in on the housing market and their awesome 5 year mortgage rates? Pretty sure a lot of home owners are getting hit with higher rates, how long can they keep up mortgage payments before they default? What a sham of a home loan program they have up there. Rate of mortgage delinquencies is kept low by Canadian banks helping borrowers with relief plans, payment deferrals and extended amortization. 2008 financial crisis was a global disaster but Canadian banks did well. Comparable to big 10 US banks, they are more secure, capitalized, diversified and regulated than small banks in US and Europe.
Let's see how the next 3-5 years play out since rates just started increasing and most mortgages are set to increase rates...Canada is going to drag the entire country down with their mortgages. Debt to income ratios are going to go haywire as rates rise while everyone is trying to stay in the same boat. What. A. Disaster. Most home owners on a 5 year fixed rate that will adjust every 5 years. They've been sitting pretty for a decade while rates remained relatively low. But hey Third, keep up the good work trying to steer people away from the truth. Bot working hard overtime.
From Wiki- Currently, Canada’s nonfinancial debt exceeds 300% of GDP and household debt continues to surpass 100% of GDP as of 2023, both higher than the levels seen in the United States before the 2008 global financial crisis
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Quote Originally Posted by thirdperson:
Quote Originally Posted by BigGame90: I know there are a lot of people who love Canada in here, can they fill us in on the housing market and their awesome 5 year mortgage rates? Pretty sure a lot of home owners are getting hit with higher rates, how long can they keep up mortgage payments before they default? What a sham of a home loan program they have up there. Rate of mortgage delinquencies is kept low by Canadian banks helping borrowers with relief plans, payment deferrals and extended amortization. 2008 financial crisis was a global disaster but Canadian banks did well. Comparable to big 10 US banks, they are more secure, capitalized, diversified and regulated than small banks in US and Europe.
Let's see how the next 3-5 years play out since rates just started increasing and most mortgages are set to increase rates...Canada is going to drag the entire country down with their mortgages. Debt to income ratios are going to go haywire as rates rise while everyone is trying to stay in the same boat. What. A. Disaster. Most home owners on a 5 year fixed rate that will adjust every 5 years. They've been sitting pretty for a decade while rates remained relatively low. But hey Third, keep up the good work trying to steer people away from the truth. Bot working hard overtime.
From Wiki- Currently, Canada’s nonfinancial debt exceeds 300% of GDP and household debt continues to surpass 100% of GDP as of 2023, both higher than the levels seen in the United States before the 2008 global financial crisis
Rate of mortgage delinquencies is kept low by Canadian banks helping borrowers with relief plans, payment deferrals and extended amortization. 2008 financial crisis was a global disaster but Canadian banks did well. Comparable to big 10 US banks, they are more secure, capitalized, diversified and regulated than small banks in US and Europe.
@thirdperson
yep all true thanks
"I'm the MOST HONEST human being that GOD EVER created!" - Donald "the felon" Trump
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Quote Originally Posted by thirdperson:
Rate of mortgage delinquencies is kept low by Canadian banks helping borrowers with relief plans, payment deferrals and extended amortization. 2008 financial crisis was a global disaster but Canadian banks did well. Comparable to big 10 US banks, they are more secure, capitalized, diversified and regulated than small banks in US and Europe.
The MAGA hysteria suggesting thousands of Canadians die horribly every year while on waiting lists for critical surgery is not only a myth of epic proportions but consider the common source of those unfounded claims -- MAGAs, who ironically insist there was MASSIVE ELECTION FRAUD perpetrated by democrats to steal the presidency from the sex-offender who trailed in virtually every consensus poll for the year leading up to the election.
good point
"I'm the MOST HONEST human being that GOD EVER created!" - Donald "the felon" Trump
1
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
The MAGA hysteria suggesting thousands of Canadians die horribly every year while on waiting lists for critical surgery is not only a myth of epic proportions but consider the common source of those unfounded claims -- MAGAs, who ironically insist there was MASSIVE ELECTION FRAUD perpetrated by democrats to steal the presidency from the sex-offender who trailed in virtually every consensus poll for the year leading up to the election.
Quote Originally Posted by BigGame90: Democrats bright idea- Change the definition of a recession so we can tell the public we're not in a recession! No change in recession definition. That is, two consecutive quarters of negative gross domestic product. Many economists agree that a US recession is unlikely in 2023 because of stronger than expected economic growth.
I don't often say this, maybe ever,... but you are correct
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Quote Originally Posted by thirdperson:
Quote Originally Posted by BigGame90: Democrats bright idea- Change the definition of a recession so we can tell the public we're not in a recession! No change in recession definition. That is, two consecutive quarters of negative gross domestic product. Many economists agree that a US recession is unlikely in 2023 because of stronger than expected economic growth.
I don't often say this, maybe ever,... but you are correct
I agree... the sh#tstorm is still yet to hit. The Federal Reserve has engaged in the most serious campaign of rate hikes in our lifetime, and we are supposed to think we will skate free w a " soft landing " ? Good luck. So far, so good, but we are now 1.5 years into the Fed's initial rate hike and previous rate hike cycles say somewhere between 12 - 24 months, the effects are felt......how convenient for Biden in 2024.. lol.
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@BigGame90
I agree... the sh#tstorm is still yet to hit. The Federal Reserve has engaged in the most serious campaign of rate hikes in our lifetime, and we are supposed to think we will skate free w a " soft landing " ? Good luck. So far, so good, but we are now 1.5 years into the Fed's initial rate hike and previous rate hike cycles say somewhere between 12 - 24 months, the effects are felt......how convenient for Biden in 2024.. lol.
US based Commonwealth fund rates Canada healthcare system ahead of US system which is the most unaffordable in the world with millions of Americans under insured.
us based organization says that ?
"I'm the MOST HONEST human being that GOD EVER created!" - Donald "the felon" Trump
0
Quote Originally Posted by thirdperson:
US based Commonwealth fund rates Canada healthcare system ahead of US system which is the most unaffordable in the world with millions of Americans under insured.
Go look at the UK. They also love socialized medicine like you do, and tell me what kind of care they get.
Look, there is plenty of "inefficiency " here in America which causes rediculous healthcare costs, but when you want healthcare, don't you want it to save your life
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@fubah2
Go look at the UK. They also love socialized medicine like you do, and tell me what kind of care they get.
Look, there is plenty of "inefficiency " here in America which causes rediculous healthcare costs, but when you want healthcare, don't you want it to save your life
The MAGA hysteria suggesting thousands of Canadians die horribly every year while on waiting lists for critical surgery is not only a myth of epic proportions but consider the common source of those unfounded claims -- MAGAs, who ironically insist there was MASSIVE ELECTION FRAUD perpetrated by democrats to steal the presidency from the sex-offender who trailed in virtually every consensus poll for the year leading up to the election.
@fubah2
Your last point is broadly overlooked or outright ignored by many but it's a fact
1
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
The MAGA hysteria suggesting thousands of Canadians die horribly every year while on waiting lists for critical surgery is not only a myth of epic proportions but consider the common source of those unfounded claims -- MAGAs, who ironically insist there was MASSIVE ELECTION FRAUD perpetrated by democrats to steal the presidency from the sex-offender who trailed in virtually every consensus poll for the year leading up to the election.
@fubah2
Your last point is broadly overlooked or outright ignored by many but it's a fact
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: The MAGA hysteria suggesting thousands of Canadians die horribly every year while on waiting lists for critical surgery is not only a myth of epic proportions but consider the common source of those unfounded claims -- MAGAs, who ironically insist there was MASSIVE ELECTION FRAUD perpetrated by democrats to steal the presidency from the sex-offender who trailed in virtually every consensus poll for the year leading up to the election. @fubah2 Your last point is broadly overlooked or outright ignored by many but it's a fact
thats a key too
"I'm the MOST HONEST human being that GOD EVER created!" - Donald "the felon" Trump
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Quote Originally Posted by Zeus4par:
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: The MAGA hysteria suggesting thousands of Canadians die horribly every year while on waiting lists for critical surgery is not only a myth of epic proportions but consider the common source of those unfounded claims -- MAGAs, who ironically insist there was MASSIVE ELECTION FRAUD perpetrated by democrats to steal the presidency from the sex-offender who trailed in virtually every consensus poll for the year leading up to the election. @fubah2 Your last point is broadly overlooked or outright ignored by many but it's a fact
I think something remarkable is how Trump ordered our hospitals to be more transparent in how much they charge patients. After all, the bankruptcies we hear from people have to do w hospital stays and procedures. So what say you Kelly, Fubah, or Zeus ???
Are you even aware of that which Trump promoted ....
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I think something remarkable is how Trump ordered our hospitals to be more transparent in how much they charge patients. After all, the bankruptcies we hear from people have to do w hospital stays and procedures. So what say you Kelly, Fubah, or Zeus ???
Are you even aware of that which Trump promoted ....
Quote Originally Posted by thirdperson: Quote Originally Posted by BigGame90: Democrats bright idea- Change the definition of a recession so we can tell the public we're not in a recession! No change in recession definition. That is, two consecutive quarters of negative gross domestic product. Many economists agree that a US recession is unlikely in 2023 because of stronger than expected economic growth. I don't often say this, maybe ever,... but you are correct
About what? I saw nothing to agree with. They absolutely tried to redefine the term in a sense. 'Many' implies more than half. That is certainly not the case. Many economists still claim a good chance of a recession. The indicators all indicate a better than 50% chance. What economic numbers are better than expected now. Certainly a fair share of them were worse than expected. Most of this sentiment comes from the Jackson Hole meetings and them trying to put a good spin on the numbers and the banks lowering their expectations. There is still a 50/50 chance at least of another rate hike. Etc., etc.
1
@Rush51
Quote Originally Posted by Rush51:
Quote Originally Posted by thirdperson: Quote Originally Posted by BigGame90: Democrats bright idea- Change the definition of a recession so we can tell the public we're not in a recession! No change in recession definition. That is, two consecutive quarters of negative gross domestic product. Many economists agree that a US recession is unlikely in 2023 because of stronger than expected economic growth. I don't often say this, maybe ever,... but you are correct
About what? I saw nothing to agree with. They absolutely tried to redefine the term in a sense. 'Many' implies more than half. That is certainly not the case. Many economists still claim a good chance of a recession. The indicators all indicate a better than 50% chance. What economic numbers are better than expected now. Certainly a fair share of them were worse than expected. Most of this sentiment comes from the Jackson Hole meetings and them trying to put a good spin on the numbers and the banks lowering their expectations. There is still a 50/50 chance at least of another rate hike. Etc., etc.
These are just some various reports from economic sources in the last week or two:
The nominal yield spread is currently negative—quite low by historical standards—and predicts a 65% probability of recession in 12 months. This recession probability would be unprecedentedly high for a false positive. The near-term forward spread from the Board of Governors currently implies a 50% chance of recession 12 months from now.
Despite recent optimism around the U.S. economy, a recession remains a more likely scenario than a so-called "soft landing" as the Federal Reserve seeks to curb inflation by tightening monetary conditions, Deutsche Bank said on Wednesday.
"Given that inflation peaked significantly above target, the Fed should err on the side of tightening too much, rather than too little," Deutsche Bank analysts said in a note. "A US recession remains more likely than not."
However, in July, weak new orders, high interest rates, a dip in consumer perceptions of the outlook for business conditions, and decreasing hours worked in manufacturing fueled the leading indicator’s 0.4 percent decline. The leading index continues to suggest that economic activity is likely to decelerate and descend into mild contraction in the months ahead. The Conference Board now forecasts a short and shallow recession in the Q4 2023 to Q1 2024 timespan.”
1
These are just some various reports from economic sources in the last week or two:
The nominal yield spread is currently negative—quite low by historical standards—and predicts a 65% probability of recession in 12 months. This recession probability would be unprecedentedly high for a false positive. The near-term forward spread from the Board of Governors currently implies a 50% chance of recession 12 months from now.
Despite recent optimism around the U.S. economy, a recession remains a more likely scenario than a so-called "soft landing" as the Federal Reserve seeks to curb inflation by tightening monetary conditions, Deutsche Bank said on Wednesday.
"Given that inflation peaked significantly above target, the Fed should err on the side of tightening too much, rather than too little," Deutsche Bank analysts said in a note. "A US recession remains more likely than not."
However, in July, weak new orders, high interest rates, a dip in consumer perceptions of the outlook for business conditions, and decreasing hours worked in manufacturing fueled the leading indicator’s 0.4 percent decline. The leading index continues to suggest that economic activity is likely to decelerate and descend into mild contraction in the months ahead. The Conference Board now forecasts a short and shallow recession in the Q4 2023 to Q1 2024 timespan.”
Quote Originally Posted by thirdperson: US based Commonwealth fund rates Canada healthcare system ahead of US system which is the most unaffordable in the world with millions of Americans under insured. us based organization says that ?
We need to do better.
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Quote Originally Posted by KellyM_1964:
Quote Originally Posted by thirdperson: US based Commonwealth fund rates Canada healthcare system ahead of US system which is the most unaffordable in the world with millions of Americans under insured. us based organization says that ?
Inflation reduction act allows medicare power to negotiate lower drug prices with manufacturers. If negotiations succeed, possibility of lower prices for 10 drugs. Other countries have long negotiated drug prices.
Another positive first for the democrats
1
Quote Originally Posted by thirdperson:
Inflation reduction act allows medicare power to negotiate lower drug prices with manufacturers. If negotiations succeed, possibility of lower prices for 10 drugs. Other countries have long negotiated drug prices.
President Biden admin: - has capped the cost of insulin at $35/month! - will cap the total prescription drug costs at $2,000/yr! - enabled Medicare to negotiate to lower prescription costs!
Important moves for America which the republicans didn't do.
Democrats did.
1
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
A few key pts from today's WH news conference...
President Biden admin: - has capped the cost of insulin at $35/month! - will cap the total prescription drug costs at $2,000/yr! - enabled Medicare to negotiate to lower prescription costs!
Important moves for America which the republicans didn't do.
He was correct in that a recession is defined as 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP. And considering we're closing in on Q3 w a recession nary in sight, I'd say none will hit in 2023..
0
@Raiders22
He was correct in that a recession is defined as 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP. And considering we're closing in on Q3 w a recession nary in sight, I'd say none will hit in 2023..
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