In the last 10presidential elections with an INCUMBENT president, if the president had positive approval to disapproval poll numbers, he won re-election. If he had net negative approval numbers, he lost. There are obvious reasons why this makes perfect sense! In mid-October, this unique indicator has been a 100% predictive model !
*REMEMBER: elections with INCUMBENT president and polls in MID-OCTOBER only!
In the last 10presidential elections with an INCUMBENT president, if the president had positive approval to disapproval poll numbers, he won re-election. If he had net negative approval numbers, he lost. There are obvious reasons why this makes perfect sense! In mid-October, this unique indicator has been a 100% predictive model !
*REMEMBER: elections with INCUMBENT president and polls in MID-OCTOBER only!
Those are the numbers I'm talking about...the ones in the coming Mid-October. If those numbers are an unknown ,,, what good is it to know the President's job approval numbers n June?
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Those are the numbers I'm talking about...the ones in the coming Mid-October. If those numbers are an unknown ,,, what good is it to know the President's job approval numbers n June?
I predict we will see more of Obama in the coming months than Biden. It will be a ventriloquist act with Obama's hand up Biden's ass. Biden can't talk by himself. If there are debates, and I predict Dem's will try to cancel, Biden will have an earpiece receiver that Obama can tell him what to say.
To me, the polls mean nothing right now, the approval ratings mean nothing. This year is WAY TO VOLITILE to predict early. It's a chess match, and if it means destroying half our country than so beit. We get to see politics at it's lowest, ulgy, selfish, sickening pieces of shit that it is.
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I predict we will see more of Obama in the coming months than Biden. It will be a ventriloquist act with Obama's hand up Biden's ass. Biden can't talk by himself. If there are debates, and I predict Dem's will try to cancel, Biden will have an earpiece receiver that Obama can tell him what to say.
To me, the polls mean nothing right now, the approval ratings mean nothing. This year is WAY TO VOLITILE to predict early. It's a chess match, and if it means destroying half our country than so beit. We get to see politics at it's lowest, ulgy, selfish, sickening pieces of shit that it is.
Polls are becoming an inverse indicator. 8 hours prior to the Brexit vote what did the polls say? On the evening of Hillary vs. Donald what were the polls saying?
I don't know how any WORKING AMERICAN can support the Democratic party.
I'm no Trump fan, but most of us will be better off if he gets 4 more years. Of course, the lazy non working segment of our society would prefer to get $600 a week indefinitely for sitting on their ass. The Democrats are Robin Hood with a bag of Sharpie's. Pathetic.
Gamble for entertainment, invest for wealth!
1
Polls are becoming an inverse indicator. 8 hours prior to the Brexit vote what did the polls say? On the evening of Hillary vs. Donald what were the polls saying?
I don't know how any WORKING AMERICAN can support the Democratic party.
I'm no Trump fan, but most of us will be better off if he gets 4 more years. Of course, the lazy non working segment of our society would prefer to get $600 a week indefinitely for sitting on their ass. The Democrats are Robin Hood with a bag of Sharpie's. Pathetic.
Those are the numbers I'm talking about...the ones in the coming Mid-October. If those numbers are an unknown ,,, what good is it to know the President's job approval numbers n June?
Again, if YOU are seeking a comparison between June poll numbers and the subesequent poll numbers resulting in mid-October of INCUMBENT presidential election years then I don't imagine that information would be difficult for YOU to find if that is what you're looking for.
POLLS provide valuable information to every campaign in every election at the state and national levels and many civic elections as well. Certainly they are relied on by those campaigns - and this includes the trump administration.
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Quote Originally Posted by SarasotaSlim:
Those are the numbers I'm talking about...the ones in the coming Mid-October. If those numbers are an unknown ,,, what good is it to know the President's job approval numbers n June?
Again, if YOU are seeking a comparison between June poll numbers and the subesequent poll numbers resulting in mid-October of INCUMBENT presidential election years then I don't imagine that information would be difficult for YOU to find if that is what you're looking for.
POLLS provide valuable information to every campaign in every election at the state and national levels and many civic elections as well. Certainly they are relied on by those campaigns - and this includes the trump administration.
Trump in a tailspin Trump plummets in new poll..............ABC
Clinton opening up a 12 point lead on Trump two thirds see him as bias............
Hillary Clinton surged to a broad advantage against Donald Trump in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll, capitalizing on Trump’s recent campaign missteps. Two-thirds of Americans see him as biased against groups such as women, minorities or Muslims, and a new high, 64 percent, call Trump unqualified to serve as president.
Americans by 68-28 percent think his comment about Judge Gonzalo Curiel was racist. Regardless of whether or not it was racist, 85 percent say it was inappropriate.. Most generally, the public by 56-36 percent, a 20-point margin, says Trump is standing against their beliefs as opposed to standing up for their beliefs.
Trump hasn’t got a chance!
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June 26,2016
Trump in a tailspin Trump plummets in new poll..............ABC
Clinton opening up a 12 point lead on Trump two thirds see him as bias............
Hillary Clinton surged to a broad advantage against Donald Trump in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll, capitalizing on Trump’s recent campaign missteps. Two-thirds of Americans see him as biased against groups such as women, minorities or Muslims, and a new high, 64 percent, call Trump unqualified to serve as president.
Americans by 68-28 percent think his comment about Judge Gonzalo Curiel was racist. Regardless of whether or not it was racist, 85 percent say it was inappropriate.. Most generally, the public by 56-36 percent, a 20-point margin, says Trump is standing against their beliefs as opposed to standing up for their beliefs.
Rasmussen poll, President Donald Trump’s daily approval rating stands at 45% The numbers came out Tuesday in the Daily Presidential Tracking Poll...... Barack Obama had a 44% approval rating at the same point in his presidency.( and got re-elected)
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June 23, 2020
Rasmussen poll, President Donald Trump’s daily approval rating stands at 45% The numbers came out Tuesday in the Daily Presidential Tracking Poll...... Barack Obama had a 44% approval rating at the same point in his presidency.( and got re-elected)
June 26,2016 Trump in a tailspin Trump plummets in new poll..............ABC Clinton opening up a 12 point lead on Trump two thirds see him as bias............ Hillary Clinton surged to a broad advantage against Donald Trump in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll, capitalizing on Trump’s recent campaign missteps. Two-thirds of Americans see him as biased against groups such as women, minorities or Muslims, and a new high, 64 percent, call Trump unqualified to serve as president.Americans by 68-28 percent think his comment about Judge Gonzalo Curiel was racist. Regardless of whether or not it was racist, 85 percent say it was inappropriate..Most generally, the public by 56-36 percent, a 20-point margin, says Trump is standing against their beliefs as opposed to standing up for their beliefs. Trump hasn’t got a chance!
I don't get your point.
Hillary held a significant advantage, and despite it plumetting late in October due to James Comey - which was OBVIOUSLY unexpected by any pollster -- she still held a 3 pt lead and did win the vote by 2 pts. FACT.
Not sure why you choose to bring in a RACIST context here. Are you a racist?!
In the end 62 million Americans voted for trump and 65 million Americans voted against him.
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Quote Originally Posted by SarasotaSlim:
June 26,2016 Trump in a tailspin Trump plummets in new poll..............ABC Clinton opening up a 12 point lead on Trump two thirds see him as bias............ Hillary Clinton surged to a broad advantage against Donald Trump in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll, capitalizing on Trump’s recent campaign missteps. Two-thirds of Americans see him as biased against groups such as women, minorities or Muslims, and a new high, 64 percent, call Trump unqualified to serve as president.Americans by 68-28 percent think his comment about Judge Gonzalo Curiel was racist. Regardless of whether or not it was racist, 85 percent say it was inappropriate..Most generally, the public by 56-36 percent, a 20-point margin, says Trump is standing against their beliefs as opposed to standing up for their beliefs. Trump hasn’t got a chance!
I don't get your point.
Hillary held a significant advantage, and despite it plumetting late in October due to James Comey - which was OBVIOUSLY unexpected by any pollster -- she still held a 3 pt lead and did win the vote by 2 pts. FACT.
Not sure why you choose to bring in a RACIST context here. Are you a racist?!
In the end 62 million Americans voted for trump and 65 million Americans voted against him.
June 23, 2020 Rasmussen poll, President Donald Trump’s daily approval rating stands at 45% The numbers came out Tuesday in the Daily Presidential Tracking Poll...... Barack Obama had a 44% approval rating at the same point in his presidency.( and got re-elected)
Whoa! You have a lot of learning to do.
First ,no intelligent person -- for obvious reasons -- takes the result of ONLY ONE POLL from many choices and hold that single result up as some universal truth! Cherry-picking results is disingenuous at best. Rasmussen is also known to lean right-wing in its methodology, which is why we take the avg of several polls. I could just as easily cherry pick and point to the much more reputable poll from REUTERS, for the same time frame, which shows trump with only 39% favorability!
Second, it is further disingenuous to show only the favorability. One must show the gap between favorability and UNfavorability! And as it stands today, from an average of the polls clearly shown at RealClearPolitics site, trump is net negative -12.8 pts.
Third, if you paid attention to the first post (you didn't) you would remember it CLEARLY states the incumbent wins or loses based on net positive or net negative approval ratings in mid-OCTOBER -- not today. Do you understand??????
Fourth, this is a handicapping forum. Seasoned cappers understand full well, you never -- I mean *NEVER* -- use a sample size of ONE result to predict how a completely different future event, with different players and different circumstances, will unfold! NEVER!! That is waaaaay STUPID! You will get laughed off any forum - and rightly so - by any intelligent/knowledgable cappers for thinking that because X happened ONCE 4 years ago under different circumstances then that means Z will surely happen next time. That's rookie capper thinking. Total minor-league thinking.
The point of the thread is clear.
AN INCUMBENT president *MUST* have net POSITIVE approval ratings - regardless how high or low they are - they must be net POSITIVE in mid-OCTOBER if he is going to win re-election......and right now it doesn't look good. But who knows....maybe Bill Barr will deliver for trump another "October Surprise" just like Comey did 4 years ago...
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Quote Originally Posted by SarasotaSlim:
June 23, 2020 Rasmussen poll, President Donald Trump’s daily approval rating stands at 45% The numbers came out Tuesday in the Daily Presidential Tracking Poll...... Barack Obama had a 44% approval rating at the same point in his presidency.( and got re-elected)
Whoa! You have a lot of learning to do.
First ,no intelligent person -- for obvious reasons -- takes the result of ONLY ONE POLL from many choices and hold that single result up as some universal truth! Cherry-picking results is disingenuous at best. Rasmussen is also known to lean right-wing in its methodology, which is why we take the avg of several polls. I could just as easily cherry pick and point to the much more reputable poll from REUTERS, for the same time frame, which shows trump with only 39% favorability!
Second, it is further disingenuous to show only the favorability. One must show the gap between favorability and UNfavorability! And as it stands today, from an average of the polls clearly shown at RealClearPolitics site, trump is net negative -12.8 pts.
Third, if you paid attention to the first post (you didn't) you would remember it CLEARLY states the incumbent wins or loses based on net positive or net negative approval ratings in mid-OCTOBER -- not today. Do you understand??????
Fourth, this is a handicapping forum. Seasoned cappers understand full well, you never -- I mean *NEVER* -- use a sample size of ONE result to predict how a completely different future event, with different players and different circumstances, will unfold! NEVER!! That is waaaaay STUPID! You will get laughed off any forum - and rightly so - by any intelligent/knowledgable cappers for thinking that because X happened ONCE 4 years ago under different circumstances then that means Z will surely happen next time. That's rookie capper thinking. Total minor-league thinking.
The point of the thread is clear.
AN INCUMBENT president *MUST* have net POSITIVE approval ratings - regardless how high or low they are - they must be net POSITIVE in mid-OCTOBER if he is going to win re-election......and right now it doesn't look good. But who knows....maybe Bill Barr will deliver for trump another "October Surprise" just like Comey did 4 years ago...
I don't get your point. Hillary held a significant advantage, and despite it plumetting late in October due to James Comey - which was OBVIOUSLY unexpected by any pollster -- she still held a 3 pt lead and did win the vote by 2 pts. FACT. Not sure why you choose to bring in a RACIST context here. Are you a racist?! In the end 62 million Americans voted for trump and 65 million Americans voted against him.
Well, to start off..I will take away your race card ...I'm a President Trump supporter so by far leftist thinking ,,,I must be a racist..so that's a card you will not be able to play with any effect again. .The article I posted was not my thoughts it was the thinking of ABC and I attributed in my post to them..
I'm not surprised even a little bit ,that you don't get the point ..after you posted in big black letters KEY FACT....What kind of KEY FACT can it be when it relates to nothing in comparison....As I posted earlier ..without knowing what the Presidents approval numbers will be until the up coming Mid-October "what difference does it make ?"
Also, the 18 or 19 largethan normal approval numbers you posted for the President as of June 24th will mean what in Mid-October ? Nothing I can think of...since the whole premise of your post is about an incumbent Presidents approval/disapproval numbers half way through October.
For some reason you seem to heavily weight RealClearPolitics net negative avg. (-12.8) as an important tool or gauge as some kind of indicator of future results..
Well, if this is true what was the the averages of all these polls at RealClearPolitics prior to the 2016 Presidential election ?
Was that avg.correct ? Or was a few individual Polls correct..?
Did they also predict who would win the electoral college by building models... ?
Someone needs to start a thread topic( maybe you can ) "Crucial to who will win the Presidential election".. and post in the first comment in huge black letters "October Surprise" however ,we won't know till we know the surprise in October ...because it could change all numbers and models.
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Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
I don't get your point. Hillary held a significant advantage, and despite it plumetting late in October due to James Comey - which was OBVIOUSLY unexpected by any pollster -- she still held a 3 pt lead and did win the vote by 2 pts. FACT. Not sure why you choose to bring in a RACIST context here. Are you a racist?! In the end 62 million Americans voted for trump and 65 million Americans voted against him.
Well, to start off..I will take away your race card ...I'm a President Trump supporter so by far leftist thinking ,,,I must be a racist..so that's a card you will not be able to play with any effect again. .The article I posted was not my thoughts it was the thinking of ABC and I attributed in my post to them..
I'm not surprised even a little bit ,that you don't get the point ..after you posted in big black letters KEY FACT....What kind of KEY FACT can it be when it relates to nothing in comparison....As I posted earlier ..without knowing what the Presidents approval numbers will be until the up coming Mid-October "what difference does it make ?"
Also, the 18 or 19 largethan normal approval numbers you posted for the President as of June 24th will mean what in Mid-October ? Nothing I can think of...since the whole premise of your post is about an incumbent Presidents approval/disapproval numbers half way through October.
For some reason you seem to heavily weight RealClearPolitics net negative avg. (-12.8) as an important tool or gauge as some kind of indicator of future results..
Well, if this is true what was the the averages of all these polls at RealClearPolitics prior to the 2016 Presidential election ?
Was that avg.correct ? Or was a few individual Polls correct..?
Did they also predict who would win the electoral college by building models... ?
Someone needs to start a thread topic( maybe you can ) "Crucial to who will win the Presidential election".. and post in the first comment in huge black letters "October Surprise" however ,we won't know till we know the surprise in October ...because it could change all numbers and models.
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: I don't get your point. Hillary held a significant advantage, and despite it plumetting late in October due to James Comey - which was OBVIOUSLY unexpected by any pollster -- she still held a 3 pt lead and did win the vote by 2 pts. FACT. Not sure why you choose to bring in a RACIST context here. Are you a racist?! In the end 62 million Americans voted for trump and 65 million Americans voted against him. Well, to start off..I will take away your race card ...I'm a President Trump supporter so by far leftist thinking ,,,I must be a racist..so that's a card you will not be able to play with any effect again. .The article I posted was not my thoughts it was the thinking of ABC and I attributed in my post to them.. I'm not surprised even a little bit ,that you don't get the point ..after you posted in big black letters KEY FACT....What kind of KEY FACT can it be when it relates to nothing in comparison....As I posted earlier ..without knowing what the Presidents approval numbers will be until the up coming Mid-October "what difference does it make ?" Also, the 18 or 19 large than normal approval numbers you posted for the President as of June 24th will mean what in Mid-October ? Nothing I can think of...since the whole premise of your post is about an incumbent Presidents approval/disapproval numbers half way through October. For some reason you seem to heavily weight RealClearPolitics net negative avg. (-12.8) as an important tool or gauge as some kind of indicator of future results.. Well, if this is true what was the the averages of all these polls at RealClearPolitics prior to the 2016 Presidential election ? Was that avg.correct ? Or was a few individual Polls correct..? Did they also predict who would win the electoral college by building models... ? Someone needs to start a thread topic( maybe you can ) "Crucial to who will win the Presidential election".. and post in the first comment in huge black letters "October Surprise" however ,we won't know till we know the surprise in October ...because it could change all numbers and models.
That's it ??! Claiming I don't get YOUR point in *MY* thread ???? LOL
You seem to be guilty of the same minorleague understanding as many others: what happened *ONCE* before (sort of) means even though there are different players and different circumstances 4 years later, that ONE occurance is somehow also indicative of the next outcome.
UN-freakn'-BELIEVABLE! On a handicapping website!!! Juvenile doesn't even begin to describe that thinking! Seriously dude.
For the others here who are somewhat better developed when it comes to understanding how ONE previous outcome DOES NOT determine nor even suggest an outcome among different players & circumstances 4 years later, for you more intelligent cappers, just keep in mind that the trump admin is intently focussed on polls as we speak! They aren't total idiots! The massive net negative numbers TODAY mean they must do something proactive to change them prior to election -- because if they stay net negative, the president loses the election. Period. That's the point. If anyone wants to look up previous net negative or net positive numbers at any time in a given election year -- HAVE AT IT!!! I applaud the effort.! Gof for it! But in the end the bottom line is still the same. Come election time, the INCUMBENT must have net POSITIVE gap between favorable and unfavorable or he loses. Period.
PS. as of Friday June 26, trump's approval numbers have now dropped further to -13.5
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: I don't get your point. Hillary held a significant advantage, and despite it plumetting late in October due to James Comey - which was OBVIOUSLY unexpected by any pollster -- she still held a 3 pt lead and did win the vote by 2 pts. FACT. Not sure why you choose to bring in a RACIST context here. Are you a racist?! In the end 62 million Americans voted for trump and 65 million Americans voted against him. Well, to start off..I will take away your race card ...I'm a President Trump supporter so by far leftist thinking ,,,I must be a racist..so that's a card you will not be able to play with any effect again. .The article I posted was not my thoughts it was the thinking of ABC and I attributed in my post to them.. I'm not surprised even a little bit ,that you don't get the point ..after you posted in big black letters KEY FACT....What kind of KEY FACT can it be when it relates to nothing in comparison....As I posted earlier ..without knowing what the Presidents approval numbers will be until the up coming Mid-October "what difference does it make ?" Also, the 18 or 19 large than normal approval numbers you posted for the President as of June 24th will mean what in Mid-October ? Nothing I can think of...since the whole premise of your post is about an incumbent Presidents approval/disapproval numbers half way through October. For some reason you seem to heavily weight RealClearPolitics net negative avg. (-12.8) as an important tool or gauge as some kind of indicator of future results.. Well, if this is true what was the the averages of all these polls at RealClearPolitics prior to the 2016 Presidential election ? Was that avg.correct ? Or was a few individual Polls correct..? Did they also predict who would win the electoral college by building models... ? Someone needs to start a thread topic( maybe you can ) "Crucial to who will win the Presidential election".. and post in the first comment in huge black letters "October Surprise" however ,we won't know till we know the surprise in October ...because it could change all numbers and models.
That's it ??! Claiming I don't get YOUR point in *MY* thread ???? LOL
You seem to be guilty of the same minorleague understanding as many others: what happened *ONCE* before (sort of) means even though there are different players and different circumstances 4 years later, that ONE occurance is somehow also indicative of the next outcome.
UN-freakn'-BELIEVABLE! On a handicapping website!!! Juvenile doesn't even begin to describe that thinking! Seriously dude.
For the others here who are somewhat better developed when it comes to understanding how ONE previous outcome DOES NOT determine nor even suggest an outcome among different players & circumstances 4 years later, for you more intelligent cappers, just keep in mind that the trump admin is intently focussed on polls as we speak! They aren't total idiots! The massive net negative numbers TODAY mean they must do something proactive to change them prior to election -- because if they stay net negative, the president loses the election. Period. That's the point. If anyone wants to look up previous net negative or net positive numbers at any time in a given election year -- HAVE AT IT!!! I applaud the effort.! Gof for it! But in the end the bottom line is still the same. Come election time, the INCUMBENT must have net POSITIVE gap between favorable and unfavorable or he loses. Period.
PS. as of Friday June 26, trump's approval numbers have now dropped further to -13.5
That's it ??! Claiming I don't get YOUR point in *MY* thread ???? LOL You seem to be guilty of the same minorleague understanding as many others: what happened *ONCE* before (sort of) means even though there are different players and different circumstances 4 years later, that ONE occurance is somehow also indicative of the next outcome.
UN-freakn'-BELIEVABLE! On a handicapping website!!! Juvenile doesn't even begin to describe that thinking! Seriously dude.
For the others here who are somewhat better developed when it comes to understanding how ONE previous outcome DOES NOT determine nor even suggest an outcome among different players & circumstances 4 years later, for you more intelligent cappers, just keep in mind that the trump admin is intently focussed on polls as we speak! They aren't total idiots! The massive net negative numbers TODAY mean they must do something proactive to change them prior to election -- because if they stay net negative, the president loses the election. Period. That's the point. If anyone wants to look up previous net negative or net positive numbers at any time in a given election year -- HAVE AT IT!!! I applaud the effort.! Gof for it! But in the end the bottom line is still the same. Come election time, the INCUMBENT must have net POSITIVE gap between favorable and unfavorable or he loses. Period. PS. as of Friday June 26, trump's approval numbers have now dropped further to -13.5 https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html
You can call it YOUR thread,however mezmurized2 over SBR should get some credit ..don't you think dude ?
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Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
That's it ??! Claiming I don't get YOUR point in *MY* thread ???? LOL You seem to be guilty of the same minorleague understanding as many others: what happened *ONCE* before (sort of) means even though there are different players and different circumstances 4 years later, that ONE occurance is somehow also indicative of the next outcome.
UN-freakn'-BELIEVABLE! On a handicapping website!!! Juvenile doesn't even begin to describe that thinking! Seriously dude.
For the others here who are somewhat better developed when it comes to understanding how ONE previous outcome DOES NOT determine nor even suggest an outcome among different players & circumstances 4 years later, for you more intelligent cappers, just keep in mind that the trump admin is intently focussed on polls as we speak! They aren't total idiots! The massive net negative numbers TODAY mean they must do something proactive to change them prior to election -- because if they stay net negative, the president loses the election. Period. That's the point. If anyone wants to look up previous net negative or net positive numbers at any time in a given election year -- HAVE AT IT!!! I applaud the effort.! Gof for it! But in the end the bottom line is still the same. Come election time, the INCUMBENT must have net POSITIVE gap between favorable and unfavorable or he loses. Period. PS. as of Friday June 26, trump's approval numbers have now dropped further to -13.5 https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html
You can call it YOUR thread,however mezmurized2 over SBR should get some credit ..don't you think dude ?
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: That's it ??! Claiming I don't get YOUR point in *MY* thread ???? LOL You seem to be guilty of the same minorleague understanding as many others: what happened *ONCE* before (sort of) means even though there are different players and different circumstances 4 years later, that ONE occurance is somehow also indicative of the next outcome. UN-freakn'-BELIEVABLE! On a handicapping website!!! Juvenile doesn't even begin to describe that thinking! Seriously dude. For the others here who are somewhat better developed when it comes to understanding how ONE previous outcome DOES NOT determine nor even suggest an outcome among different players & circumstances 4 years later, for you more intelligent cappers, just keep in mind that the trump admin is intently focussed on polls as we speak! They aren't total idiots! The massive net negative numbers TODAY mean they must do something proactive to change them prior to election -- because if they stay net negative, the president loses the election. Period. That's the point. If anyone wants to look up previous net negative or net positive numbers at any time in a given election year -- HAVE AT IT!!! I applaud the effort.! Gof for it! But in the end the bottom line is still the same. Come election time, the INCUMBENT must have net POSITIVE gap between favorable and unfavorable or he loses. Period. PS. as of Friday June 26, trump's approval numbers have now dropped further to -13.5 https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html You can call it YOUR thread,however mezmurized2 over SBR should get some credit ..don't you think dude ?
Sure! AND LISHY over at RX too!
0
Quote Originally Posted by SarasotaSlim:
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: That's it ??! Claiming I don't get YOUR point in *MY* thread ???? LOL You seem to be guilty of the same minorleague understanding as many others: what happened *ONCE* before (sort of) means even though there are different players and different circumstances 4 years later, that ONE occurance is somehow also indicative of the next outcome. UN-freakn'-BELIEVABLE! On a handicapping website!!! Juvenile doesn't even begin to describe that thinking! Seriously dude. For the others here who are somewhat better developed when it comes to understanding how ONE previous outcome DOES NOT determine nor even suggest an outcome among different players & circumstances 4 years later, for you more intelligent cappers, just keep in mind that the trump admin is intently focussed on polls as we speak! They aren't total idiots! The massive net negative numbers TODAY mean they must do something proactive to change them prior to election -- because if they stay net negative, the president loses the election. Period. That's the point. If anyone wants to look up previous net negative or net positive numbers at any time in a given election year -- HAVE AT IT!!! I applaud the effort.! Gof for it! But in the end the bottom line is still the same. Come election time, the INCUMBENT must have net POSITIVE gap between favorable and unfavorable or he loses. Period. PS. as of Friday June 26, trump's approval numbers have now dropped further to -13.5 https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html You can call it YOUR thread,however mezmurized2 over SBR should get some credit ..don't you think dude ?
Fubah2 is right about history. Although no poll is perfect all the time, polls overall are right more often than not especially late in elections. Historically, impeached incumbents in a recession normally don't win reelections.
4
Fubah2 is right about history. Although no poll is perfect all the time, polls overall are right more often than not especially late in elections. Historically, impeached incumbents in a recession normally don't win reelections.
In the last 10presidential elections with an INCUMBENT president, if the president had positive approval to disapproval poll numbers, he won re-election. If he had net negative approval numbers, he lost. There are obvious reasons why this makes perfect sense! In mid-October, this unique indicator has been a 100% predictive model !
In the last 10presidential elections with an INCUMBENT president, if the president had positive approval to disapproval poll numbers, he won re-election. If he had net negative approval numbers, he lost. There are obvious reasons why this makes perfect sense! In mid-October, this unique indicator has been a 100% predictive model !
Seasoned cappers understand full well, you never -- I mean *NEVER* -- use a sample size of ONE result to predict how a completely different future event, with different players and different circumstances, will unfold! NEVER!! That is waaaaay STUPID! You will get laughed off any forum - and rightly so - by any intelligent/knowledgable cappers for thinking that because X happened ONCE 4 years ago under different circumstances then that means Z will surely happen next time. That's rookie capper thinking. Total minor-league thinking. The point of the thread is clear. AN INCUMBENT president *MUST* have net POSITIVE approval ratings - regardless how high or low they are - they must be net POSITIVE in mid-OCTOBER if he is going to win re-election.....
"I'm the MOST HONEST HUMAN BEING that God has EVER created!!" - Donald Trump
0
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Seasoned cappers understand full well, you never -- I mean *NEVER* -- use a sample size of ONE result to predict how a completely different future event, with different players and different circumstances, will unfold! NEVER!! That is waaaaay STUPID! You will get laughed off any forum - and rightly so - by any intelligent/knowledgable cappers for thinking that because X happened ONCE 4 years ago under different circumstances then that means Z will surely happen next time. That's rookie capper thinking. Total minor-league thinking. The point of the thread is clear. AN INCUMBENT president *MUST* have net POSITIVE approval ratings - regardless how high or low they are - they must be net POSITIVE in mid-OCTOBER if he is going to win re-election.....
Changes as of June 30... KEY FACT: In the last 10 presidential elections with an INCUMBENT president, if the president had positive approval to disapproval poll numbers, he won re-election. If he had net negative approval numbers, he lost. There are obvious reasons why this makes perfect sense! In mid-October, this unique indicator has been a 100% predictive model ! Read source: https://www.minnpost.com/eric-black-...ction-pattern Trump's job approval numbers, as of June 30 : -14 net average (was -12.8 only two weeks ago) -18 ...USA Today -12 ...Rasmussen -14 ...Harris-11 ...FOX News -12 ...YouGov -15 ...NYT/Siena College -16 ...NPR/PBS -19 ...Politico-19 ...Reuters -13 ...CNBC Read source: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html#polls
Presidential Job Approval,
At this same point
Incumbent presidents ran for re-election:
Jimmy Carter 38% (1980)
George W.H. Bush 41% (1992)
George W. Bush 47% (2004)
Barack Obama 47% (2012)
Bill Clinton 53% (1996)
Ronald Reagan 54% (1984)
Winners are at or over 47%, losers are at 41% or lower. Donald Trump is at 41% as of now.
7
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Changes as of June 30... KEY FACT: In the last 10 presidential elections with an INCUMBENT president, if the president had positive approval to disapproval poll numbers, he won re-election. If he had net negative approval numbers, he lost. There are obvious reasons why this makes perfect sense! In mid-October, this unique indicator has been a 100% predictive model ! Read source: https://www.minnpost.com/eric-black-...ction-pattern Trump's job approval numbers, as of June 30 : -14 net average (was -12.8 only two weeks ago) -18 ...USA Today -12 ...Rasmussen -14 ...Harris-11 ...FOX News -12 ...YouGov -15 ...NYT/Siena College -16 ...NPR/PBS -19 ...Politico-19 ...Reuters -13 ...CNBC Read source: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html#polls
Presidential Job Approval,
At this same point
Incumbent presidents ran for re-election:
Jimmy Carter 38% (1980)
George W.H. Bush 41% (1992)
George W. Bush 47% (2004)
Barack Obama 47% (2012)
Bill Clinton 53% (1996)
Ronald Reagan 54% (1984)
Winners are at or over 47%, losers are at 41% or lower. Donald Trump is at 41% as of now.
Changes as of June 30... KEY FACT: In the last 10 presidential elections with an INCUMBENT president, if the president had positive approval to disapproval poll numbers, he won re-election. If he had net negative approval numbers, he lost. There are obvious reasons why this makes perfect sense! In mid-October, this unique indicator has been a 100% predictive model ! Read source: https://www.minnpost.com/eric-black-...ction-pattern Trump's job approval numbers, as of June 30 : -14 net average (was -12.8 only two weeks ago) -18 ...USA Today -12 ...Rasmussen -14 ...Harris-11 ...FOX News -12 ...YouGov -15 ...NYT/Siena College -16 ...NPR/PBS -19 ...Politico-19 ...Reuters -13 ...CNBC Read source: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html#polls
July 02 update: trump's job approval vs DISapproval was -14 pts.... now -14.3
1
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Changes as of June 30... KEY FACT: In the last 10 presidential elections with an INCUMBENT president, if the president had positive approval to disapproval poll numbers, he won re-election. If he had net negative approval numbers, he lost. There are obvious reasons why this makes perfect sense! In mid-October, this unique indicator has been a 100% predictive model ! Read source: https://www.minnpost.com/eric-black-...ction-pattern Trump's job approval numbers, as of June 30 : -14 net average (was -12.8 only two weeks ago) -18 ...USA Today -12 ...Rasmussen -14 ...Harris-11 ...FOX News -12 ...YouGov -15 ...NYT/Siena College -16 ...NPR/PBS -19 ...Politico-19 ...Reuters -13 ...CNBC Read source: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html#polls
July 02 update: trump's job approval vs DISapproval was -14 pts.... now -14.3
38% currently approve of the job Donald Trump is doing as president
Record partisan gap, with 91% of Republicans, 2% of Democrats approving
Trump's job approval rating is down among most demographic groups
WASHINGTON, D.C. -- President Donald Trump's approval rating is holding steady at a lower level after a sharp drop in late May and early June, with only 38% of Americans currently approving of the job he is doing.
38% currently approve of the job Donald Trump is doing as president
Record partisan gap, with 91% of Republicans, 2% of Democrats approving
Trump's job approval rating is down among most demographic groups
WASHINGTON, D.C. -- President Donald Trump's approval rating is holding steady at a lower level after a sharp drop in late May and early June, with only 38% of Americans currently approving of the job he is doing.
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