President's job approval is CRUCIAL!

The current poll also indicates the president's approval rating

has dropped among independents,  from 39%  to  33%

Source: https://tinyurl.com/ybm4lxeo

KEY FACT:

In the last 10 presidential elections with an INCUMBENT president, if the president had
positive approval to disapproval poll numbers, he won re-election.
If he had net negative approval numbers, he lost.

There are obvious reasons why this makes perfect sense!

*In mid-October, this unique indicator has been a near 100% predictive model !
Read source: https://tinyurl.com/ycmcbc6l

trump's job approval numbers,
as of July 8:

=  -14.2 DISapproval  (was -12.8 in mid-June)

-17 ...Reuters
-12 ...Rasmussen
-15 ...YouGov
-17 ...IBD/TIPP
-13 ...Monmouth
-14 ...CNBC
-19 ...Politico
-18 ...USA Today
-16 ...NPR/PBS
-8 .....The Hill
-15 ...NYT/Siena College
-19 ...GALLUP
-14 ...Harris
-11 ...FOX News
-13 ...Quinnipiac
-14 ...CNBC

Read source:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html#polls

adolf trump's job approval numbers,
as of July 12:

=  -14.3 DISapproval  (was -14.2 last week.....was -12.8 in mid-June)

And as a natural result, as Mdnight correctly points out,

trump has to "blame" somebody for HIS mistakes...

President Donald Trump shook up his campaign leadership on Tuesday,
announcing he was promoting Bill Stepien to be his campaign manager
and demoting Brad Parscale, who had been serving in that role.

The announcement comes on the same day that two national polls
showed the President trailing presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden
by double digits.

Fubah is back for all the evening news. 

Unreal day Fubah. Goya, firing campaign manager, cutting off CDC from hospitalization data. Wild one today Fubs. 

The latest Quinnipiac University survey shows Trump trailing presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden by 15 points, a deficit that might help explain the bizarre series of attacks the President leveled at his rival during Tuesday's news conference and the shake-up in his campaign leadership on Wednesday led by his son-in-law and adviser, Jared Kushner.

As coronavirus cases surge and states rollback re-openings, former Vice President Joe Biden opens up his biggest lead this year over President Donald Trump in the race for the White House. Registered voters back Biden over Trump 52 - 37 percent, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University national poll released today. This compares to a June 18th national poll when Biden led Trump 49 - 41 percent. Since March, Biden's lead had ranged from 8 to 11 percentage points.
Independents are a key factor behind Biden's widening lead as they now back him 51 - 34 percent, while in June, independents were split with 43 percent for Biden and 40 percent for Trump.

as of July 18:

=  -14.3   (was -14.3 last week.....was -12.8 in mid-June)

Back to  -14.3 this weekend (rolling average)

In the last 10 presidential elections with an INCUMBENT president, if the president had
positive approval to disapproval poll numbers, he won re-election.
If he had net negative approval numbers, he lost

*In mid-October, this unique indicator has been a near 100% predictive model !
Read source: https://tinyurl.com/ycmcbc6l

CNBC "State of Play" Poll

July 10-12, 2020
= 1258 likely voters; 2.76% MOE
*no discernable poll bias!

Q: Who do you think would do a better job handling each of the following:
Donald Trump & Republicans - OR - Joe Biden & Democrats?
Pandemic?
44% ...trump
56% ...BIDEN!!!!

The economy?
48% ...trump
52% ...BIDEN !!!!!!!!!!

Putting the middle class FIRST?
45% ...trump
55% ...BIDEN!!!!!

Making HEALTH CARE more affordable?
43% ...trump
57% ...BIDEN !!!!!

Q: Net favorability vs UNfavorability?
-8 pts ...Joe Biden
-15 pts...trump

-10 pts...Democrats
-15 pts...REPUBLICANS

Q: NET approval of the job trump is doing handling
each of the following issues:
- 8 ....economy
-18 ...trump-virus
-14 ...immigration

Q: Approval or disapproval of the job trump ensuring economic relief for COVID-19
goes to those who need it most, NOT the wealthy and well-connected
45% ...approve
55% ...DISapprove !

Source: https://tinyurl.com/y4p6kqwv

ECONOMIST/YouGov poll

1500 (1242 RV) 3.3% MOE, July 12 - 14, 2020
Source: https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/hpupr0zhkl/econTabReport.pdf

*NOTE:
Before trump-worshippers here wet their collective panties,
to eliminate poll bias, I show the responses from "MODERATES"
(ie, niether Liberals, nor Conservatives)
MODERATES decide elections!

Q: Is president Donald Trump  HONEST & TRUSTWORTHY?

MODERATES say:

22% ... Yes, he's totally honest & trustworthy

63% ..aaaaHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

Q: Do you approve or disapprove of the way trump is handling his job as President?

MODERATES say:
29% ... approve
65% ...DISapprove!!!

Q: Do you think the U.S. economy will get better, get worse or stay the same
if Joe Biden is elected President in 2020?

MODERATES say:
36% ...Better under Biden!
32% ...worse
14% ...stay same

Q: Do you think the U.S. economy will get better, get worse or stay the same
if trump is reelected President?

MODERATES say:
27% ...better
46% ...WORSE under trump!
14% ...stay same

as of July 22:

 *There is slight movement today due to an "outlier" poll

Politico poll has trump at -17 approval

YouGov poll has trump at -14 approval

...but the right-leaning Rasmussen poll has trump only at -1...this is a clear outlier

Of the last 50 polls, only 6 were NOT double-digit negative approval....and the previous best was -6.

=  -13.7   (was -14.3 last week.....was -12.8 in mid-June)

In the last 10 presidential elections with an INCUMBENT president, if the president had
positive approval to disapproval poll numbers, he won re-election.
If he had net negative approval numbers, he lost

*In mid-October, this unique indicator has been a near 100% predictive model !
Read source: https://tinyurl.com/ycmcbc6l

Outlier polls proved to be right in 2016..should not be overlooked....

Fubah,

Whats the report on the latest polls today? I heard Fat Donnie is raging at Fox again today because the latest Fox poll has him with falling approval numbers again? It's funny how the guy claims that the polls mean nothing, yet whines and complains whenever new polls showing his approval numbers and chances for 2020 falling by the day. 

  Glad you asked...

Well the trail of NEGATIVITY that trump has brought upon himself continues...

the latest FOX News poll released today shows trump getting his a** kicked badly:

Biden +11 in Pennsylvania (very crucial 20 electoral votes!)

Biden +13 in Minnesota (where GOP had faint hopes of flipping, at one time)

Biden +9 in MICHIGAN (which was a .3% lucky win for trump in 2016)

And yesterday's 2 polls showed Biden in crucial FLORIDA a solid +6 in the St.Pete poll, but even better at +13 in the well respected Quinnipiac poll

More to come from the poll questions, which will show MODERATES responses to rule out party bias.

Those numbers look good Fubah for Independents like ourselves, who are seeking to return the country to a place of decency and respectability. 

And "outlier" polls (ie, either demographic fluke, or heavy poll bias) prove to be WRONG about 90%+ of the time overall....so what should a wise, seasoned, smart, intelligent "sports handicapper" do in making an assessment....put an EQUAL amount of weight to the results of a "one-off" vs. the overwhelming majority stats that oppose it?

Admittedly, for SOME, that might be a really tough question. SUch people confuse easily.

But for those of us with a reasonable grasp of the concept of "probability" - well we know what to do...

The Trump administration plans to announce that it will allow the sale of armed drones to other nations and bypass part of an international weapons export control agreement that the U.S. helped forge decades ago.

Do we really want to do this?

Oh Yes, the concept of probability..every time a coin is tossed there's a 50% chance it will be heard..I see..

But of course that automatically means trump wants to.

Currently, trump's rolling average net-negative approval is still  -13.8

Things could change dramatically,,between now and mid-October...that could effect President Trumps approvale.g A cure for Covid-19, Biden's pick for VP doesn't go over big and something comes out about what Biden is really doing down in that basement all day and late at night,,,the October surprise and many ,many more things..right now it's too early to take much stock in these ratings ..

Remember,,,most polls are not intended to inform but to discourage Trump supporters, in the hopes that many stay home on Election Day.

Correction -13.9

And waaaaay outside the margin of error!