President's job approval is CRUCIAL!

True.

Ten of the last 10 *INCUMBENT* re-elections have shown that it depends on net approval ratings.

Trump is the ONLY president in modern times who has NEVER achieved a 50% approval rating from among an average of several polls in the same period 

Likewise he has NEVER achieved a net positive approval/disapproval rating among an average of several polls in the same period.

Another first. Can't win unless those numbers flip.

KEY FACT:

In the last 10 presidential elections with an INCUMBENT president,
if the president hadpositive approval to disapproval poll numbers,
he won re-election.
If he had net negative approval numbers, he lost.

There are obvious reasons why this makes perfect sense!

*In mid-October, this unique indicator has been a near 100% predictive model !
Read source: https://tinyurl.com/ycmcbc6l

trump's job approval numbers,
as of AUGUST 25:              -11.2 

(holding fairly steady in the negative 10 to 12 range)

Positivity on Biden hits high

Washington (CNN) The Democratic National Convention took over the conversation
surrounding the presidential race this week, and more Americans had positive things
to say about the party's nominee -- former Vice President Joe Biden -- than
at any point in the last eight weeks.

These findings come from The Breakthrough, a project from CNN, SSRS and researchers
from Georgetown University and the University of Michigan asking Americans what they
have heard, read or seen about each of the presidential candidates lately. The survey
was in the field beginning the second day of the convention and continued through
Sunday night.

The number of people who spoke positively about Biden jumped sharply, and outpaced
negative responses: there were about 1.6 positive responses for every negative response,
the highest ratio so far.

At the same time, President Donald Trump's ratio of positive to negative sentiment
dipped to its lowest point since early July when the project began tracking -
- fewer than one positive response was recorded for each negative response.

so biden's ratings goes up, but trumps falls

what happened to all the winning trump claimed

trump's approval still circling the toilet

Why this matters ...

KEY FACT:

In the last 10 presidential elections with an INCUMBENT president,
if the president had positive approval to disapproval poll numbers,
he won re-election.
If he had net negative approval numbers, he lost.

Read source: https://tinyurl.com/ycmcbc6l

The '60-day rule' for elections
Barr may be willing to bend for Trump

Opinion by Elie Honig
Wed September 2, 2020

(CNN)If there was any question before about whether William Barr could be willing
to use his power as attorney general to tilt the scales in the upcoming presidential
election, there shouldn't be anymore. Barr appeared to confirm as much on CNN
Wednesday: that he would be willing to breach longstanding Justice Department
norms -- that is, the unwritten "60-day rule" -- to advantage the re-election
campaign of President Donald Trump.

Barr also continued to claim "Elections that have been held with mail
have found substantial fraud and coercion," he said.
When asked by Wolf Blitzer whether he could cite any prosecutions
relating to this purportedly widespread criminal phenomenon,
Barr responded by citing one case -- yes, just one.

contrary to Justice Department practice under both political parties, Barr is
keeping the door wedged open to deliver Trump a September or October surprise.
Barr had already signaled that he will not respect the 60-day rule
as it relates to any potential indictments resulting from the ongoing
investigation by John Durham into the origins of the investigation of
Russian interference in the 2016 election.
https://tinyurl.com/yyphyplm

It is worth noting that a presidential campaign is always a referendum
on the incumbent. Meaning, if he did well then there is little or no valid
reason to remove him from office. And if he performed poorly - in
whatever fashion the electorate believes - then they vote him out.

And the leading indicator are the polling results for "job approval"
In effect, if those numbers are net positive, he will be re-elected.
10 of the 10 modern history *INCUMBENT* elections have been decided
based on this view by the public.  100% accurate!!!

Simple fact -- Bottom Line.

Trump's numbers have improved just slightly over the summer
but are still dreadfully bad: mean avg range -8 to -9

Read source: https://tinyurl.com/ycmcbc6l

The two week rolling average at RCP now has trump at  -8.7

despite two outlier polls in his favor.

That was Tuesday.

On Wednesday, with the usual mountain of new polls released,

that 2 week rolling average at RCP poll monitoring site is now well above  -9 points

-14  YouGov
-3.....Rasmussen  *consistent outlier
- 6  The Hill
-13 Monmouth
-17 Reuters
-10 CNBC
- 8  Harris
-16 TIPP
-13 CNN

It is worth noting that a presidential campaign is always a referendum
on the incumbent. Meaning, if he did well then there is little or no valid
reason to remove him from office. And if he performed poorly - in
whatever fashion the electorate believes - then they vote him out.

And the leading indicator are the polling results for "job approval"
In effect, if those numbers are net positive, he will be re-elected.
10 of the 10 modern history *INCUMBENT* elections have been decided
based on this view by the public.  100% accurate!!!

Simple fact -- Bottom Line.

bottom line

must get higher positive to negative approval like biden has

For nonbiased forecasts of US elections, check out statistical projections by non-US sources with no axe to grind.  Currently, the Economist gives Biden 86% probabiility of winning.  Whereas Financial times has Biden with solid 280 from states when only 270 is needed to win electoral college.

It is worth noting that a presidential campaign is always a referendum
on the incumbent. Meaning, if he did well then there is little or no valid
reason to remove him from office. And if he performed poorly - in
whatever fashion the electorate believes - then they vote him out.

And the leading indicator is the polling results for "job approval"
In effect, if those numbers are net positive, he will be re-elected.
10 of the 10 modern history *INCUMBENT* elections have been decided
based on this view by the public.  100% accurate !!!

Simple fact  --  Bottom Line.

Interesting.

anyone but rump 

Well.....things may be getting interesting.

On Sept 12 trump's 2 week rolling average of polls for job approval was  -9.3

Today (about 2 weeks later; using same site) it has moved down to  -7.5

*Those of watching elections for decades realize that usually

the numbers narrow somewhat as the election approaches.

Indeed, trump was -14 early in the summer...

Keep in mind though, those numbers are nationally.

The swing states are the key...

 And on Sept 28 that RealClearPolitics number is back up to  -8.6

The leading indicator is the polling results for "job approval"
In effect, if those numbers are net positive, he will be re-elected. If not, he LOSES!!!
10 of the 10 modern history *INCUMBENT* elections have been decided
based on this view by the public.  100% accurate !!!

Simple fact  --  Bottom Line.

And -8.3 today .....up and down rollercoaster as the rolling average drops 2 week old polls and adds the newest.

Will be interesting to see the polls taken *AFTER* the first debate, on trump's job approval.

Likely coming late this week

deep in the negatives .

to win he has to get poitive numbers .  no way this will happen

The leading indicator for winning the presidency is the polling results for "job approval"

In effect, if those numbers are net positive, he will be re-elected.

If not, he LOSES!!!

10 of the 10 modern history *INCUMBENT* elections have been decided
based on this view by the public.  100% accurate !!!

Simple fact  --  Bottom Line.

what is his job approval now ?

GALLUP: Bottom Line

While Trump's approval rating has improved, it remains below the 50% threshold f
or an incumbent that has historically been associated with presidents winning a
second term. In addition, Americans' satisfaction with the way things are going is
near its historical low point, and while economic confidence has recovered from
its record drop in the spring, it remains negative.

-7.4   at RCP