@Midnight1
Like the guy said you do not want a headline reading, "Dewey Defeats Biden". You never want to spike the football on the 5-yard line.
If you listen to all of these folks and polls they will tell you that everyone is beating Biden now. His point is very valid. We have seen these things over and over throughout the years.
This applies to the Congressional contests as well. Sure right now it looks good for the Right. If you look at some of the 538 polls, etc. -- it seems likely for the Right to have a good showing.
BUT THEN the question would always be would it be enough of a quorum to get anything worthwhile done.
If you look at just something as superficial as S&P returns you see what happens when you have a split in the Congress or a split with the President and/or Congress with parties.
The best returns are nearly always when you have a split of some kind. Yes, a Republican President and a Republican Congress is better than a Democratic President and a Democratic Congress, as far as returns. BUT a Democratic President with a split or Republican Congress does better than a Republican President and a split or Democratic Congress.
The reason for this is if there is a lack of willingness to work with the opposite party if one party controls everything BUT does not have enough to 'force' radical things through. BUT if there is a split, then they seem to work better together.
I do NOT see there being an overwhelming majority of Right candidates to 'force' through legislation. BUT that is the ideal situation no matter the party of the President.
BUT if you have a Republican President and a split or Democratic Congress it usually stifles the economy.
As far as other economic issues -- I tend to hope enough 'on the fence' voters will realize the economy was better pre-pandemic.
I think another consideration is the conflicts going on around the World right now. People intuitively think Republicans are better for national defense-type issues.
Another huge issue in Europe and Canada -- not really the Argentine situation (mostly Venezuelans) -- are the illegals and the immigrants. That is driving some of the Far-Right sentiment. Will that help the Republican candidates in the USA, it is hard to say.
People really do have very short memories about things. IF IT IS NOT happening right now -- they sort of forget.
I think if the elections were soon and NOT a year away, the Right could very well win both Houses and the Presidency.
It is like I have always said about Trump though -- a lot of folks will never overlook his 'mean' tweets or his 'lack of diplomacy'. So, folks do not always vote their own interests.
HOWEVER, if you say for sure it comes down to Biden and Trump -- only Trump could handle all of the above things I mentioned in a positive manner. Even though he would NOT do some of the things I think he should do -- he would be far better than Biden. I think all of those current issues have gotten worse under him.
But if Biden does get in again -- then the Republicans NEED to have solid control of at least ONE house of Congress. But I would hope for a 'red wave' (for a solid majority) and Trump to win.
But a year is a long time.