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Arizona at Carolina (10/26/2008)

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Posted: #1

Away:  Arizona [4-2 ATS]
Home:  Carolina [4-2-1 ATS]

Game Time: 1:00 PM
Stadium: Bank of America Stadium

Recent Meetings:
N/A

Team Leaders:

Arizona:
Passing: Kurt Warner (1708)
Rushing: Edgerrin James (363)
Receiving: Larry Fitzgerald (546)

Carolina:
Passing: Jake Delhomme (1533)
Rushing: DeAngelo Williams (417)
Receiving: Steve Smith (496)

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Consensus Betting Information

 
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Posted: #2
 Que paso, mi amigo?
 
 
It's in the Cards, baby! This is exactly the kind of game that they get covers in. The Panthers are fresh off of smoking Saints, and the Birds, well, the birds didn't play last week. Gotta roll with the dog. Besides, there's no true turf advantage. Both teams are grass teams.
 
 Wow! Let me get some of that action!  
 
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Posted: #3

I am leaning towards Carolina. This team has done me well when they have played at home. I really like his match up.

 
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Posted: #4
coming into this week the West to East early morning trend is 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS (if i'm not mistaken)... i know there has only been 1 lost ATS and no losses SU... two games this week, with this being one of them...
 
having said that, why do i get the feeling Arizona is the team that is going to break that string?  i'll tell you what, the Raiders aren't... but might have to steer clear of this one...
 
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Posted: #5
No way am I staying away from this one. This is quadruple revenge. And a bad loss by the Cards last year to boot. This is the NFL nothing is as easy as it seems. The Cards may be traveling, but they are well rested too and coming off a bye. The 9-0 SU and 8-1 ats record of the west to east doesn't reflect the ats record of teams coming off of byes in that equation, so that point is moot in this instance. Carolina has won their home games by an average score of 18.75 points. The Cardinals have lost their road games by an average of 14 points. Yet the spread is only 4.5. The line shouldn't be any less than 7.5 and that's real. Something is fishy here. The small number really is what got me to thinking the Cards in the first place. This game is a set up and I am taking the "fishy" team.
 
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Posted: #6
ARIZONA is 8-21 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.CAROLINA is 34-19 ATS in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
Good teams win games, Great teams cover the spread!
 
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Posted: #7
Quote Originally Posted by Watch:

The 9-0 SU and 8-1 ats record of the west to east doesn't reflect the ats record of teams coming off of byes in that equation, so that point is moot in this instance.
 
you are correct... not ALL of those 9 games involved teams coming off the spread...
 
but Seattle did get destroyed 44-6 off of their bye week... and Oakland got destroyed 34-3 coming off of their bye week... so is 0-2 (in heinous fashion) reflection enough for you?
 
and Arizona is 0-2 in this situation, with both losses being complete blowouts...
 
but yea, the point is moot... if you insist...
 
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Posted: #8
Quote Originally Posted by lobosrule:

you are correct... not ALL of those 9 games involved teams coming off the spread...

should have said coming off the bye week...

 
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Posted: #9
Seattle and Oakland are not Arizona, and both of those teams have sub 500 records, lobosrule.
 
And furthermore, this is this year. Past results for Arizona (the mention of them being 0-2 in this situation) or for Carolina can't be used (peppy 222 learned that last week with San Diego and Buffalo. He kept resorting back to past results for both teams and the teams that they had played leading up to the game and it eventually got him an L and me a W). Everything is week by week. 
 
Arizona is a completely different team this year with a retooled squad and a much better quarterback in Warner. What I can say is lay your money on the Panthers with the rest of the free money seekers and we'll see what happens. Being the minority on a wager is one of the reasons why I am so successful. I don't mind playing the other team with the alleged least chance to get the cover. Hopefully I will be the only one on this thread with the Cardinals. I don't mind that one bit. Actually I knd of like it that way.
 
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Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by Watch:

And furthermore, this is this year. Past results for Arizona (the mention of them being 0-2 in this situation) 
 
look... Watch... if you are determined to bet Arizona bet them...
 
but i am not talking about LAST year... i am talking about them being blown out AT Washington (West to East A.M. game) and being blown out AT the Jets (West to East A.M. game)... THIS YEAR!
 
sorry man...
 
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Posted: #11
like i said, my gut feeling is that Arizona will somehow be the first team to break the string... but it is still a crazy trend to bet against right now... and none of the arguments you have presented are suggesting otherwise...
 
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Posted: #12
by the way... SD-Buff last week was the easiest bet on the board... for the exact reason we are talking about here...
 
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Posted: #13

Well lobosrule, I can't be predicatble and follow the crowd. And I know that given the circumstances and what it looks like on paper, with the short number and all, Carolina looks like the sure thing. Easy money. Taking candy from a 9 year old trick or treater. All that I am saying is that it is too easy to take Carolina. Public donations will drive the line up to 6 by gametime. I will make my wager 15 minutes before kickoff.  

 
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Posted: #14
now you're talkin' smart... i think...
 
on the one hand i would say you're right... after Carolina smacks NO and with the whole 8-1 ATS trend going against them, you gotta wonder why Arizona is only getting 4.5, and if there is a setup...
 
but on the other hand, Arizona has beaten Buffalo and Dallas their last two games, so they do deserve some respect...
 
i think if i can lay off of Carolina and Arizona covers, i will consider that a win... since i have bet on all 8 of the winners in that trend this year, and stayed away from the 1 loser... this could be the 2nd loser... but there's no way i'm laying off of Baltimore...
 
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Posted: #15
Liking AZ here.  They tough team with Weisenhunt.  And Car blew out NO. AZ should also be used to travel by now,
 
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Posted: #16
All that I know is that with all of the money on the Panthers the spread dropped from 4.5 to 4. That is what is called reverse line movement. 
 
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Posted: #17
Arizona Just because of the points
 
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Posted: #18
West teams coming East suck ATS.  Taking Carolina HUGE -4.
 
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Posted: #19
Arizona.... to be honest, just because carolina screwed be earlier this year... but i do think arizona will pull it off in carolina if boldin is in
 
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Posted: #20
Quote Originally Posted by Watch:

All that I know is that with all of the money on the Panthers the spread dropped from 4.5 to 4. That is what is called reverse line movement. 

and there you go right back to talking stupid again...

exactly how are you privvy to knowing how much money is on either side?  are you the manager of a sportsbook... because if you are not, then you do not know this information... only a sportsbook manager knows this... ONLY!

 
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Posted: #21
Quote Originally Posted by lobosrule:

and there you go right back to talking stupid again...

exactly how are you privvy to knowing how much money is on either side?  are you the manager of a sportsbook... because if you are not, then you do not know this information... only a sportsbook manager knows this... ONLY!



Not really.  Sportsbook managers only know how much is coming in at their sportsbook.  But sites like insight.com does give you some indications.
 
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Posted: #22
I really like AZ here due to the reverse line movement.  80% on CAR and West Coast team traveling east, why not leave the line at 4.5? or move to 5 for that matter.  Vegas is saying, "Give me all your Car bets". Book'em Dan-o as Mr. Mannix would say.  Only worry is that 80% of the money is also on the AZ ML which could be why they moved the line.
 
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Posted: #23
Quote Originally Posted by jeff-bob:

West teams coming East suck ATS.  Taking Carolina HUGE -4.


My original thinking, but with everyone knowing about this trend with SD and NO losing (and AZ doing the same earlier this year), why move the line to 4?  If the books were that positive, make it 5, but they not so sure.  I think AZ learned from their two trips to the east this year and will be more ready.  This AZ team is not the team of old.  They taking NFC West, and they are a tough team under new (1yo) coach.

GLTA.
 
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Posted: #24
Carolina has the #2 Pass D and Arizona has the #2 Pass O. I think the front of Carolina (i.e. Peppers) rattles Warner a little. Stewart and DeAngelo 1-2 punch, liking Carolina at home with the run game and the D. Is Boldin back for sure?
 
 
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Posted: #25
Could easily be a seven point game...then Rackers comes in to kick a field goal from the 29.  If it was 3.5 I'd take Carolina, but those 4's push me away.  GLA
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