Atlanta at Green Bay (12/08/2014)

Green Bay - 8.5 Over Atlanta!

Packer / Falcon Analysis (not my own)       

"GREEN BAY 40 - Atlanta 17—Falcons have been playing solid football the last five games, with three victories and two losses, by just 2 and 1 point. But keeping pace with the Aaron Rodgers’ offense at Lambeau in December is another matter. Rodgers now has a string of 31 TDP without an int. at home, and few defenses these days can even force a Packer punt in the first half.

Green Bay was riddled with injuries in its jinxed 2013 campaign. But 2014 has mostly been the opposite, with key Packers such as power back Eddie Lacy (770 YR) and Rodgers’ receivers staying healthy. Green Bay is one point (beat the Jets 31-24 laying 7½) away from a 6-0 pointspread mark at home TY. Atlanta WRs potent, but QB Ryan vulnerable to the rush."

Green Bay - 8 1/2 (bought down at -185) Over Atlanta!  1 Unit!  

GLTA                                   

Alright fukk this ^^, but anybody think NotLanta just pulls this out? Just too much money on GB, plus the Saints lost yesterday. Look at Green Bay's remaining games - crap Buffalo, even crappier Tampa Bay, and the high flyin' Lions in Lambeau on what should be a running game "Frozen Tundra" on 12/28. Pack won't lose another game, but they could lose this one..... 

+600 I'm in for the small - my last "hunches" were the Jets/Dolphins (which was down to the wire) As was the Chargers game last night. I gotta hit one of these.....

Good Luck People

This kind of betting my friends keep bookies in business!

Decided with the UNDER 55.  Weather scared me.

Teasing ATL +19 and UN  61 also.

I will probably get torched after a big Sunday. 

GREEN BAY (-12) 38 Atlanta 21

The Falcons played well in their 29-18 win against the Cardinals last week rolling up 502 yards at 6.8 yppl while allowing just 333 yards at 6.6 yppl and forcing three turnovers. Things will get just a bit tougher this week as they head to Lambeau Field to take on a red hot Packers team. I’m not sure how Atlanta is going to keep up with a Packers offense that has been virtually unstoppable the past nine weeks, going 9-1 SU and 7-2 ATS, winning by an average of score of 36-21. Overall the Packers are averaging 379 yards at 6.4 yppl against teams that allow 346 yards at 5.6 yppl and will be matched up against a Falcons defense that allows 404 yards at 6.2 yppl against teams that gain 343 yards at 5.4 yppl. The only shot the Falcons have in this game is to fire away and hope to outscore Green Bay with a pass offense that can be dangerous because their defense will not be able to slow down the Packers offense. This is a game where lots of points should be scored in a match-up of top level passing offenses and while the Atlanta pass defense is the worst in the league (allowing 284 yards at 7.7 yps to teams that average 240 yards at 6.4 yps) the Packers are tied for third in the league with 15 interceptions including three returned for touchdowns.

I don’t expect that there will be a letdown by Green Bay after their big win at home against the Patriots last week as this game is in front of a national audience in prime time on Monday night football. In addition, the Packers qualify in a 74-37-3 Monday night situation as well as a 107-57-4 statistical match-up spot. My model favors the Packers by 14.6 points and with a dome team like the Falcons travelling to play in the cold at Lambeau with the leagues’ worst defense I lean to the Packers -12.

And these are the kind of bets that keep ME in business...

Georgia Tech + 6 (buying up) Over Florida State!   10 Units!  

GLTA                           

Know you know why I only bet ONE UNIT on Green Bay!  A fun bet. Couldn't care less if the Pack lose the game outright...by a score of 97 to 3!