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Denver at Washington (11/15/2009)

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Posted: #26
Quote Originally Posted by Money23:

Don't over think this one, Denver obviously has a flat offense but the Skins have one of the WORST.. Denver will score off their defense. Denver BIG.


Great Avatar Money!  I almost missed it, and figured I'd point it out to others.  Good stuff.

Didn't this line open at 6.5?  If so, why the drop?
 
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Posted: #27
Quote Originally Posted by supere36m3:

Denver -3.. They are not going to lose 3 in a row....


Haven't I read something like this all year long?

Tennessee is not going to lose 2 in a row
Tennessee is not going to lose 3 in a row
Tennessee is not going to lose 4 in a row
Tennessee is not going to lose 5 in a row
Tennessee is not going to lose 6 in a row

If you're betting money on this, you might want to actually cap the game versus posting a gut feeling.
 
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Posted: #28

Quote Originally Posted by sirmartingale:

Haynesworth is not awesome anymore, he's a fat kid that has millions of dollars to buy twinkies with. He is inconsistent because he doesn't go hard all the time. The players are starting a mutiny in Washington and they have nothing to play for.

 

Isn't funny how quickly public perception of a player can change just because he is no longer playing on a winning team.

 
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Posted: #29

Denver or no play here. How can any team win with out offense?. Cample will throw to Zorn and hand off to Snyder.

 

 
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Posted: #30
denver -4
 
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Posted: #31
I'm a skins fan, so I'm staying away, I just don't see how losing portis affects this game, this year, betts has been just as good if not better.  Skins D is good, denver's d is good, looks like a low scoring game, but i wouldn't be surprised if skins win this game, the line movement would have me leaning skin's +, but good luck all
 
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Posted: #32
I WILL FOLLOW A TREND LOSER ON MONDAY NIGHT IS A COVER ON THE FOLLOWING SUNDAY DENVER-4
 
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Posted: #33
DO NOT BET ON DEVER! AGAIN!!! DO NOT BET ON DENVER!!!

TRAPPPP!!!

 
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Posted: #34
Defense is great for both teams denver offense is better !!! UNDER is The Only play Under or nothing ! GL
 
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Posted: #35
I'm taking the OVER.  it's gonna be a shootout
 
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Posted: #36

Quote Originally Posted by jaydub7:

I'm a skins fan, so I'm staying away, I just don't see how losing portis affects this game, this year, betts has been just as good if not better.  Skins D is good, denver's d is good, looks like a low scoring game, but i wouldn't be surprised if skins win this game, the line movement would have me leaning skin's +, but good luck all

 

I'm a denver fan...it seems like this should be a denver win...probably will be but they probably wont cover...looking at the line movement suggest that the skins are the play.

washinton has a great pass defense... bettis looked really good last week ...look better than portis..and fred davis might have gotten over his first game as a starter gitters..wouldnt surprise me that this is a low scoring nail bitter...

 

 

 
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Posted: #37
Quote Originally Posted by adsitar:

Fishy line here.  Opened at Denver -4.5 and dropped to -3.5 with 81% of the public on Denver.  Is this the type of game where Orton throws 3 picks again and Campbell shows up to win against the once 5-0 Broncos?  Any given Sunday.  I would stay away from this one, it could be a shocker.  Vegas is still trying to catch up and their will be some sucker bets out their.  This may be one of them.
   I AGREE WITH YOU AND JUST TOOK A SHOT ON THE FIRST HALF OF DENVER (-2.5)
 
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Posted: #38
only Seymour, Tito and i are on the under?

on the year.. WSH is scoring 14.1 ppg while DEN is at 18.8


 14.1
+18.8
32.9
 
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Posted: #39
oops.. sorry... white widow...lets try again...


on the year...

WSH is scoring 14.2 ppg while DEN 18.8 ppg
WSH giving up 19.3 ppg while DEN 15.5 ppg

Both PF avg          Both PA avg
    14.1                       19.3
    +18.8                    +15.5
     32.9                       34.8


avg of 32.9 and 34.8 =  33.9


3 to 3.5 pts our suggested total, thus making an under bet look no too bad here...



 
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Posted: #40
Quote Originally Posted by sirmartingale:

Haynesworth is not awesome anymore, he's a fat kid that has millions of dollars to buy twinkies with. He is inconsistent because he doesn't go hard all the time. The players are starting a mutiny in Washington and they have nothing to play for.


do you know what the role of a nose tackle is?
 
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Posted: #41
BUT... 

here are the last 5 weeks numbers...

WSH ppg 14.6 (pretty close to season avg)
DEN ppg 17.6 (a tad under their season avg)
WSH PA avg 21 (higher than season avg)
DEN PA avg 21.6 (6 pts higher than season avg)

Both PF avg     Both PA avg
  14.6                   21
+17.6                 +21.6
32.2                     42.6

avg of 32.2 and 42.6 =37.4

right on the freeken tee
 
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Posted: #42
Mountain time zone playing on east coast at 1pm is a big letdown spot for the road team as well.


So.... after all that.. i'm gonna play the season averages, and roll with the under still... Although i have one thing to worry about...

The fact that WSH has nothing to lose really, and is most likely gonna give up on the conservative approach, and start gunning the ball, being aggressive, and using trick plays....
But... if thats the case, can they really accomplish that style of offense?

 i say no..



big play on under



gl everyone!

 
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Posted: #43
oh ya i almost forgot, WSH hasn;t cracked 20 yet this season





 
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Posted: #44

i've got my own over/under system and my numbers project this one at 35.2.  that's a no play for me.  it's too close to the opening number.  i am however taking washington with as many points as i can get at the last minute before kick off.  GL

 
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Posted: #45
Denver just got done with the most brutal 3 game stretch of any team this year. 3 quality teams, two top teams, all coming off the bye, 2 of which were on the road. Now they travel half-way cross country to play an early game on the east coast. It all adds up as a loss for Denver, except for the fact that they are playing Washington.

Washington's 2 wins this year both came at home by a combined 5 points, against two teams with a combined 2 wins. Their best offensive player is done for the year, they may have the worst o-line in the league, Portis is out and Betts is banged up. Their defense is good, but they will be on the field all day long. Washington will need huge plays from their D and ST to win.

Vegas has been getting killed all year on these typical trap games. Washington is that bad. Take Denver or do nothing. I always feel the worst losing a bet on a team i know is awful.
 
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Posted: #46
The Skins' offense is really in total disarray.  Games are won and lost along the lines.  They lost Randy Thomas, Chris Samuels, and then Mike Williams who wasn't anything special when filling in.  Casey Rabach has been a disaster in the middle.  So now they are starting two "new" faces; Levi Jones this week at LT and Chad Rinehart (a draft bust who wasn't able to get in despite all the injuries) will be starting at RG over Will Montgomery.

Denver has the 3rd highest sack total in the NFL, they will add to it against this group.  It is hard to see Skins doing much on the ground behind this line to begin with, but Portis is out and Betts reported about 75% with a bum ankle after practice Friday.  Rock Cartright might be getting some carries (ugh).

No Cooley, Bailey will locking down on Moss, leaving Randel El as the best receiving option?  The only way they score frequently is by generating a bunch of short fields which isn't likely as the defense has just generated just 1 turnover in the last three games.

I am going with the Broncos here.

  
 
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Posted: #47
Washington  +3.5  (2u)
 
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Posted: #48
Denvers little slump comes to an end as they crush a terrible redskins team.
 
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Posted: #49
WAS +3.5
GLTA 
 
 
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Posted: #50

Quote Originally Posted by TigerPawsSC:

Vegas doesn't give out free money and they don't give out gifts.

Look too good to be true? It is. Denver -4.5 at Washington and the public pounds it? The line moves down to -3.5?

Good gracious people, do you think you're slipping one by the books here? You think they just missed this one? You're all smarter than that.

Short week for the Broncos after a physical Monday nighter with Pittsburgh.

Denver coming across the country on that short week to play a game at 11AM Denver time against a team that's desperate for a win. Low total (37). This screams field goal and it screams trap.

Don't be stupid.

Thank you TigerPaws.  Don't you think Vegas knows about Cooley and Portis.  And they still moved the line from 4.5 to 3.5  with 70% on the Broncos.  It's not Christmas yet.  There's a reason for this...

REDSKINS +3.5

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