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Detroit at Chicago (10/22/2012)

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https://profootballmock.com/?p=4810
 
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I'll start with the Lions this week. They have been a notoriously bad road team and don't play well in Chicago. I keep reading of their big win last week but did they really win or did Philly lose? Philly was up by 10 in the 4th if I'm not mistaken and had 2 careless turnovers that had little to do with the Lions. A much better coached Bears team will not lose if leading late. 

The Lions have 1 weapon. The Bears front 4 has the ability to get after statue Stafford without having to blitz allowing them to concentrate on Johnson. Clearly this is the formula that other teams have figured out because his stats clearly don't reflect his talent. The Lions are gonna be a 1 dimensional team allowing the front to pin their ears back. There will be no running game. Lions are 1 of the worst on O while Bears #1 on D. 

As far as Lions D, we all know of the secondary issues and their front just hasn't looked the same this year. On the other hand, the Bears have been a sack and turnover machine. If you think it's luck, you're dead wrong. It's a trademark of this team and has been since the Super Bowl team. However, I will admit the td's have been fortuitous but they definitely know what to do with the ball and try as much as possible to improve field position if not score.

Advantage - Bears

The Bears will be without Jeffery for a few weeks but do get Earl Bennett back who is Jay's favorite 3rd down option since their days in Vandy. He's a big possession receiver and great compliment to Marshall. Forte continues to get healthy and takes the offense wherever he goes. It starts and ends with him and I expect to see a lot of touches as the Bears aren't looking to get in a shootout. Cutler and Marshall continue to get better each week and Jay looks to be heating up like he did last year before the injury. The Bears front has also looked better with each passing week opening holes for Forte and giving Cutler enough time. The sideline shove match looks to be behind them.

Advantage - slight edge Bears do to the balance. The Lions have inflated stats due to playing from behind early and often.

Special teams edge definitely goes to the Bears. They have the better kicker and I've been calling for a Hester td in my last 2 previous Bears posts. After the Lions showing in Tennessee, this may finally be the week. The Bears racked up over 200 return yards in last year's meeting in Chicago helping the D flip the field.

Lovie heads into his 11th MNF game as the Bears' coach looking to improve to 9-2 after picking up his 8th in Dallas a few weeks back. The Lions gave Lovie 1 of his 2 losses last year in Detroit. The meeting in Soldier Field last year was a a complete beat down. Stafford had 4 picks despite over 300 yards passing. The Lions didn't get in the end zone until there was 5 mins left in the game. Cutler was 11/19 and Bennett grabbed 6 for 88. The Bears rushed for over a 100 as the carries were spread out primarily between Forte and Barber. 

I loved the Bears at 5 but not nearly as much at 6.5. I am actually leaning toward the under 47. The offense is coming off a bye which I think may hurt their rhythm in the passing game. The Bears won't be able to stretch the field quite as much without Jeffrey. I expect them to come in with an emphasis on the ground game to open up the play action. They will take their shots deep with Marshall but I look for more of a ball control offense with Forte and Bennett. The D should have another good game. Johnson will get his but I expect some big sacks and a couple turnovers to neutralize the passing game.

I expect to see something like a 23-17 or 23-20 score with the Bears winning. I think they control the game but fear a late garbage td leaving a backdoor cover for the Lions and possibly over. The Lions will be pass heavy by the 4th. I have the Bears in my suicide and will most likely tease the Bears and under.
 
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Posted: #28
Anyone betting against the Bears !!! Well you might as well flush your money!!!  Bears, Lynx and overs, with Cards winning game 7 !!!!
 
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Posted: #29
Quote Originally Posted by vue21849:

   Lions are about to get crushed this time!

CHICAGO - 6

This guy is a freaking joke!!!!  Seriously, how do you even have $$$ to bet when you LOSE EVERY GAME!!!!  And you act like you are some top notch researcher/handicapper.  I'm not an expert by any means but THIS GUY IS AN ABSOLUTE JOKE!!!!

And you post your picks in big, bold, colorful letters like a freaking second grader.

This is what he picked this week alone!

ARIZ (+6) THEY LOST BY 7 (WRONG!!!)

ARI/MINN (OVER 39.5) TOTAL WAS 35 (WRONG!!!)

CIN (+1) THEY LOST BY 7  (WRONG!!!!)

NYG (-6) THEY WON BY 4  (WRONG!!!)

WAS/NYG (UNDER 49.5) TOTAL WAS 50 (WRONG!!!)

BUF (-3) THEY LOST BY 1 (WRONG!!!)

N.E. (-10.5) THEY WON BY 3 (WRONG!!!)

JACKSONVILLE (+6) OMG YOU FINALLY GOT ONE RIGHT!!!

That is a record of 1-7 for this Sunday.

I know we've all had bad runs, but I've been following the threads and this guy posts something for almost every game and claims he wagers on them.  Even a monkey can throw his crap and get one right.  You are HORRIBLE!!!!

 

 
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Posted: #30

Detroit 27

Chi      24

 
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Posted: #31

Hello all! I've kept a book for over 15 yrs and am now retired. Most games i'd lay off especially NHL and MLB, but there's certain games where you just know the outcome. NBA lines can get fishy but nothing beats the NFL. Anyway, if you'd like to follow my pics, i'll post on most primetime games to help you punters out. For years my winning percentage has been high 80's. Let's look at this game which is similar to Steelers/Bengals and last weeks MNF game Broncos/Chargers. Please note that i've passed my book down to my brother-in-law but i stil check the action of my former clients (300+). So many of these websites tell us what pecent of public is on what  team. Let's face facts, there is no way to really know. Line movement isn't always an indication of one side getting heavy action. From my former clients alone, 75-80 percent of them were on Cincy tonight and SD last week. I'll bet my boots they're all gonna jump on the Chicago Squares. Point being, line's didnt move much on SD and Cincy and it looks like Chicago is staying put as well. I;m not saying our book is all of North America, but im sure other bookies will conquer. As a former bookkeeper, i love these kind of games. Everyone see's the line and jumps on the favourite because they're a 6.5. The same people jump on 2.5 favorites or 13.5 favourites. Don't get fooled. Not saying anything is predetermined but there are experts who study this beautiful game and they set the lines. It's a 6.5 because  Detroit will cover. CASE CLOSED. had it been a 7.5, then different story. It may be Det ML or the bears could be up 13 and get back doored, but the outcome will be Det +6.5. As for TB/Min on thursday, the line is correct. Game could go either way and action will be on both sides. I think minny covers that one in the last minute. Crazy things seem to happen on monday and thurs nights this year. Maybe AP breaks won while the the vikes have a small lead and are killing the clock. We'll see but as for the lions, they will cover against their division foes to the shagrin of many. Vegas wasn't built off gamblers, it was built off squares. Good luck to all.

 
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Posted: #32
Quote Originally Posted by roachkiller:


LMFAO!!  VUE does suck.  He seems too confident with Da Bears, ima have to play the Lions and I'm a Bears Fan!!! Heck maybe even ML because I think there's a chance they take this one.
 
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Posted: #33
Leaning on Detroit and the under in this one
 
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Posted: #34
The Bears are one of the best defenses in the league and if you can't see that already then stop betting.  The Bears are also one of their longest running rivals.

The Bears will come out looking for blood.  The Lions have yet to prove themselves and are overrated by far. 

The Bears are ranked #1 in rush defense, 13th in pass defense, 8th in sacks, #1 in defensive scoring, #1 in interceptions, and #4 overall in the league.  This doesn't come by accident folks.  The Bears are a TURNOVER machine and it will not be any different against this division rival. 

As for the Lions, in some defensive stats they barely break the top lower 10 in the league with everything else being average or in the bottom third tier. 

This will defensively be the Lions' toughest test for their whole season.  Their last win over Philly wasn't very inspiring considering how crappy the Eagles offense has been this year.  Their defense was semi formidable. 

I see Chicago covering this easily and especially being at home.  Less than 1 year ago Chicago easily covered at home against the visiting Lions and it won't be different tomorrow.

Chicago all the way to end this wonderful football week!
 
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Posted: #35
DETRIOT ON A MONDAY NIGHT
 
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Posted: #36
LIONS ROLL HERE! 50% of winnings from this year are on them tonight! Win or Lose, will be back for WK 10 action!
 
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Posted: #37

DET 13 - CHI 37

This was the score the last time these two met in Soldier Field, both teams were 6-3 at the time - and the Bears were only giving 2.5 at that time. Stafford (in typical Stafford fashion) threw 4 picks that day, while Cutler didn't throw one. I think the Bears defense is even stronger now. Does anybody not see this score and game as any different this time!?!??!?!?

Bears/Over - for a nice end to a nice weekend........

 
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Posted: #38
Da Bears
 
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Posted: #39
Rain in Chicago?? Give me the under!
 
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Posted: #40
Quote Originally Posted by Schumonty:

I'll start with the Lions this week. They have been a notoriously bad road team and don't play well in Chicago. I keep reading of their big win last week but did they really win or did Philly lose? Philly was up by 10 in the 4th if I'm not mistaken and had 2 careless turnovers that had little to do with the Lions. A much better coached Bears team will not lose if leading late. 

The Lions have 1 weapon. The Bears front 4 has the ability to get after statue Stafford without having to blitz allowing them to concentrate on Johnson. Clearly this is the formula that other teams have figured out because his stats clearly don't reflect his talent. The Lions are gonna be a 1 dimensional team allowing the front to pin their ears back. There will be no running game. Lions are 1 of the worst on O while Bears #1 on D. 

As far as Lions D, we all know of the secondary issues and their front just hasn't looked the same this year. On the other hand, the Bears have been a sack and turnover machine. If you think it's luck, you're dead wrong. It's a trademark of this team and has been since the Super Bowl team. However, I will admit the td's have been fortuitous but they definitely know what to do with the ball and try as much as possible to improve field position if not score.

Advantage - Bears

The Bears will be without Jeffery for a few weeks but do get Earl Bennett back who is Jay's favorite 3rd down option since their days in Vandy. He's a big possession receiver and great compliment to Marshall. Forte continues to get healthy and takes the offense wherever he goes. It starts and ends with him and I expect to see a lot of touches as the Bears aren't looking to get in a shootout. Cutler and Marshall continue to get better each week and Jay looks to be heating up like he did last year before the injury. The Bears front has also looked better with each passing week opening holes for Forte and giving Cutler enough time. The sideline shove match looks to be behind them.

Advantage - slight edge Bears do to the balance. The Lions have inflated stats due to playing from behind early and often.

Special teams edge definitely goes to the Bears. They have the better kicker and I've been calling for a Hester td in my last 2 previous Bears posts. After the Lions showing in Tennessee, this may finally be the week. The Bears racked up over 200 return yards in last year's meeting in Chicago helping the D flip the field.

Lovie heads into his 11th MNF game as the Bears' coach looking to improve to 9-2 after picking up his 8th in Dallas a few weeks back. The Lions gave Lovie 1 of his 2 losses last year in Detroit. The meeting in Soldier Field last year was a a complete beat down. Stafford had 4 picks despite over 300 yards passing. The Lions didn't get in the end zone until there was 5 mins left in the game. Cutler was 11/19 and Bennett grabbed 6 for 88. The Bears rushed for over a 100 as the carries were spread out primarily between Forte and Barber. 

I loved the Bears at 5 but not nearly as much at 6.5. I am actually leaning toward the under 47. The offense is coming off a bye which I think may hurt their rhythm in the passing game. The Bears won't be able to stretch the field quite as much without Jeffrey. I expect them to come in with an emphasis on the ground game to open up the play action. They will take their shots deep with Marshall but I look for more of a ball control offense with Forte and Bennett. The D should have another good game. Johnson will get his but I expect some big sacks and a couple turnovers to neutralize the passing game.

I expect to see something like a 23-17 or 23-20 score with the Bears winning. I think they control the game but fear a late garbage td leaving a backdoor cover for the Lions and possibly over. The Lions will be pass heavy by the 4th. I have the Bears in my suicide and will most likely tease the Bears and under.

Very solid analysis.  One thing I would add is that the Bears have won or lost every game this year by two scores or more (10 or more points).  The Lions on the other hand, have won or lost every game by one score or less (8 or less points). 

One of these trends will be broken tonight.  I think the Bears are the better team....no question about it!!  However, I think their bye week came at a bad time.  This team was healthy and really firing on all cylinders.  I'm concerned that they may have lost a little of their momentum.  I have never in my life have seen a team have 5 pick-6s over the course of a 3-week period.  Not even in college football.  I expect Jim Schwartz to dumb-down the gameplan and be conservative just like they did against Philly in the 1st half of last week.  Especially, given the previous performances by Stafford at Soldier field.  I think the Lions will play "not to lose", conservative football.  While the Lions defense has looked awful at times, they have actually done a decent job against the run, ranking 10th in the league in yards allowed. 

I think the Lions will do just enough to keep this a competitive game given how much is at stake for them (a win would get them to .500).  With Minnesota and Green Bay also playing well, they could pretty much consider their playoff chances done with a loss here.

With all that being said, I'm betting on the Lions to keep this game close.  Perhaps I was a little too ambitious in picking a Lions upset here.  I will retract my previous post and predict the Lions lose 24-21.  Jason Hanson misses the game-tying field goal in the final seconds.  good luck

 
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Posted: #41
TIE
 
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Posted: #42
Quote Originally Posted by moho:

Bears need to shut down down just 1 dangerous guy,and thats "MEGATRON". this guy is a game breaker indeed.

Always tough to pick teams coming off a bye but,i like the home dog here to cover-6.5

daaaaaaa bearz

home dog ... yikes 
 
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Posted: #43
Quote Originally Posted by roachkiller:


 
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Posted: #44
Great insight from sammy and the dimes fellah. That being said chicago has monster defensive stats but not super high on offense. The defense gives them a lot their offense. Very balanced team. Chicago will bury them right?? Detroit just heaves it all over the place and this will either bury them or make chicago move at a faster pace which could cause cutler to make hurried mistakes. Its a gamble but the line speaks well for a 4 or 3pt cover or outright win for detroit. Face it with the rest of the division playing better ball they need to do or die. DET and OV for the large!!!!!!!!!!!!!
 
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Posted: #45
Hey sammie how bout hanson makes it, OT then misses. Gimme that over son!!
 
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Posted: #46
I'm not quite sure about the total.  If the game plays out like a think it is, then it will be competitive and low-scoring.  But you never know with these gunslingers in Stafford and Cutler. If they start forcing the ball into Megatron or Brandon Lloyd, they might throw some picks....or they might make some big plays. 
 
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Posted: #47
Oo0oooo0Ohhh peeple pleaze nOooo0o more hate !!!! we here to make muney i think . pleaze leave mister vue alone becoz everybudy knows hes a respucted handjobcapper, i mean handicappur.i think.does nut matter how mister vue picks has been terribul becoz one weak he will get hot again but i dunno0oOo when.OoOoo0oohhhh  4 and 11 this weak and last weak 5 and 11 is not dat bad ! SooO0oo0o pleaz nOoooOo more hate !!! i dunno i like duh bares from chicago but mister vue likes them too so i dunno. now i almost broke like vue and have to sell 3 fur 1 fooking pizzass to keep duh wife quiet oOoo0oohhh i dunno but gud luck anyhows.
 
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Posted: #48
brandon lloyd?  scooping passes from Brady in Chicago tonight eh?    Awful.

this line screams for an over.  stafford n megatron will "get theirs".   meaning they are good for 23+ pts.
 
and the eagles can play like shit and still put up 27+  ( last week at home vs lions)... cutler forte and marshall will take advantage of staffords picks, lions r always pass happy because they are so accustomed to being down early in football games.. leshoure will be a non factor because the run game will be quickly abandoned.

Remember the bears developing the running game a few weeks ago at dallas on mnf, and then they started taking shots  hesters double move on the deep ball play action pass... you will be seeing a whole lot more of that.. not saying itll be hester catching those deep patterns, but im saying bennett and marshall outmatch that secondary...

cmon guys... over all day.  prediction: bears 34 lions 24



over all the way... who cares if its windy.  its the windy city.  marshall over that secondary?


 
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Posted: #49
U  N  D  E  R
 
 
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Posted: #50
Quote Originally Posted by roachkiller:

LOL I have been saying this for along time!!!!!   Just fade Vue and you will make cash!!!  But he is right tonight on the Bears - 6 and I'm taking the Over 46!!!  This pick will hit for sure!! I'm calling it now 35 -17 Bears!!!
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