Green Bay at New Orleans (10/26/2014)

Away:  Green Bay [4-2-1 ATS]
Home:  New Orleans [2-4 ATS]

Game Time: 8:30 PM
Stadium: Mercedes-Benz Superdome

Featured Lines

Recent Meetings:
N/A

Team Leaders:

Green Bay:
Passing: Aaron Rodgers (1674)
Rushing: Eddie Lacy (369)
Receiving: Jordy Nelson (712)

New Orleans:
Passing: Drew Brees (1916)
Rushing: Khiry Robinson (330)
Receiving: Jimmy Graham (376)

Highest total of the year so far...at 56 and possibly climbing, this total is an automatic UNDER play for me.

Teams have settled down and these high totals are starting to result in unders - there have been four games with totals set at 50 or higher in the last three weeks.  All went under the total. 

Green Bay has played seven games this year and not one has exceeded 56 points.

New Orleans has played six games, two of which have gone over 56 points - at Atlanta in week 1 and home versus TB in week 5.  Both divisional shootouts.

That's two results over 56 points out of thirteen games, which is a 15% outcome.  Not great odds there.

Do the road and away math on these two teams and you get a predicted outcome of 47.25 points scored.  Do the math on all games combined and you get 51.375 points.

The fact that it is a primetime game does make me a little leery BUT to exceed 56 points you need a minimum of 14 points per quarter just to push...get a 3 or 7 point quarter and all of a sudden you need 24 in the next one.

Final score GB 27 NO 23 for an UNDER 56.

And yes I know the head to head on these two QBs in recent years has been north of 70 PPG.  However - that's three games over six years.  Going to disregard that stat at my own peril.

GL to all

GRB will not hold NO to 23 ol in the dome. NO ave. 35 a game at home with Payton behind the bench recently and vs this wanting  GRB D. 35 is a min. amount NO will put up.

This game may go under but only because the Saints hold down  the Pack.

In what universe are the Saints "recently" averaging 35 points per game at home?  Did I not see them "recently" score 20 points hosting the Vikings?  THE VIKINGS???

This year's average is 28.5

Last year's average is 27.875

You must be thinking of 2011 when they averaged over 40 points per game.  This is not that team. That was in 2011, which was three years ago.

 Exactly 34 points a game

My bad

Keven I stand corrected - double checked the numbers and last year comes out to 34 exactly.

I expect a dedicated run game out of both NO and GB.  Extended possessions will promote the under.

My original point was that when totals get this high you almost have to take the under as a percentage play.  The numbers support this regardless of who's on the field.

GL on your Saints play and on the rest of the season. 

GREEN BAY    +     2     (PRIME PLAY!)

Lions -3.5

Saints -1.5

Texans -2

Vikings +2.5

Dolphins -6

Originally posted the day before the SD/DEN game, so not erroneous at the time.  I was referring to weeks 5-7.  Please read more carefully before responding, thanks.

If you want to be confrontational that's fine but at least have something intelligent to say rather than just blustering that I'm providing "bogus" information.  Everything in my original post is 100% fact. 

Good luck with your over

Halloween Game, Nighttime primetime, Voodoo on Bourbon Street all the crazies will be out in full force. this feels like a Saints type of game

offensive shootout

saints -2 and over 55

Who likes this?

Saints, over 50, and the Giants

parlay to triple my money

hopefully Butt-Gardener doesn't screw me over.