Green Bay at New Orleans (10/26/2014)

Highest total of the year so far...at 56 and possibly climbing, this total is an automatic UNDER play for me.

Teams have settled down and these high totals are starting to result in unders - there have been four games with totals set at 50 or higher in the last three weeks.  All went under the total. 

Green Bay has played seven games this year and not one has exceeded 56 points.

New Orleans has played six games, two of which have gone over 56 points - at Atlanta in week 1 and home versus TB in week 5.  Both divisional shootouts.

That's two results over 56 points out of thirteen games, which is a 15% outcome.  Not great odds there.

Do the road and away math on these two teams and you get a predicted outcome of 47.25 points scored.  Do the math on all games combined and you get 51.375 points.

The fact that it is a primetime game does make me a little leery BUT to exceed 56 points you need a minimum of 14 points per quarter just to push...get a 3 or 7 point quarter and all of a sudden you need 24 in the next one.

Final score GB 27 NO 23 for an UNDER 56.

And yes I know the head to head on these two QBs in recent years has been north of 70 PPG.  However - that's three games over six years.  Going to disregard that stat at my own peril.

GL to all

Just Like your take on the Denver/SD game, you are inputting too many numbers with games that have little to do with the game at hand, and I think you overthink it with a little bit of an overkill w the mathematics. Once gain, I see where your train of thought is, but again, I think you need to look more into THIS specific game and cap it from there back, so to speak...but absolutely BOL, although I am on oppo side of both again...BOLTA.

Keven I stand corrected - double checked the numbers and last year comes out to 34 exactly.

I expect a dedicated run game out of both NO and GB.  Extended possessions will promote the under.

My original point was that when totals get this high you almost have to take the under as a percentage play.  The numbers support this regardless of who's on the field.

GL on your Saints play and on the rest of the season. 

Well...so much for that idea...buckle up boys and get ready for this Super Tecmo Bowl showdown!

Quote Originally Posted by jo14014:

24-27.......

That will be the halftime score at this rate...

LOOOOKING GOOOOOOOOD!!!!!!