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New Orleans at Green Bay (09/08/2011)

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Posted: #51

Quote Originally Posted by Supersunday:

I don`t see anyone here teasing the pack +1.5 and over 42

 

Now you do.

Parlay the Packers M/L with over 43.5, and it's pretty much an even money bet. I admit, it's a "safe" bet, but hey, this is just the first game of the season.

Good luck everybody.

 

 
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Posted: #52
Quote Originally Posted by vue21849:

GREEN BAY - 4   (Prime Wager)

 

good to see we're on the same side to start the season vue. I don't know what a "prime" wager is, but hopefully it makes us some "prime" money so we can go eat some "prime" rib!!!!!!!!!

 
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Posted: #53
green bay -4.5
 
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Posted: #54
saints are minus 1 DT, 2 DE's, 1 cb,  plus lance moore who is a good target..  Green Bay will unleash a full press No-huddle offense that will take advantage of a inferior under conditioned and undersized defense.  breeze and company will score but just enough to push the total over 48... GB by 10-17... parlay and tease with zona +14
 
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Posted: #55

Packers in this one. They are healthy, Saint's still got some things to catch up during their lockout. Bol! Packers on this one.

 
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Posted: #56
Give me the points...  and the over.  close shoot out tonight in Lambeau!!!  GL ALL..  just glad NFL is starting.
 
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Posted: #57
Pack D too much as Rodgers and company take care of the Saints.

27-17
 
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Posted: #58

Preface: The NFL is probably the most crooked game in town after the NBA.

Green Bay are da champs!  Rodgers is the best QB in the league!  The have Grant and Finley back back!  Their D is going in the top five in fantasy drafts.

New Orleans blew there wad two years ago.  Moore is out.  Defense has some injuries.

And the Packers only are laying four!  The whole world solar system is on Green Bay.  So why are the books smiling?

BOOKS >>>>

NEW ORLEANS +4
 
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Posted: #59
Quote Originally Posted by BloodyShredder:

Preface: The NFL is probably the most crooked game in town after the NBA.

Green Bay are da champs!  Rodgers is the best QB in the league!  The have Grant and Finley back back!  Their D is going in the top five in fantasy drafts.

New Orleans blew there wad two years ago.  Moore is out.  Defense has some injuries.

And the Packers only are laying four!  The whole world solar system is on Green Bay.  So why are the books smiling?

BOOKS >>>>

NEW ORLEANS +4


Not normally one for conspiracy theories, but I agree. I locked them in at +4 because I was afraid the line would go down, but instead it's gone UP somehow which really tells you where the money is going. Even though they're the champs, this game should've been the standard -3/+3 as I believe these teams are almost even on a neutral field. Take the points!
 
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Posted: #60
Quote Originally Posted by BloodyShredder:

Preface: The NFL is probably the most crooked game in town after the NBA.

Green Bay are da champs!  Rodgers is the best QB in the league!  The have Grant and Finley back back!  Their D is going in the top five in fantasy drafts.

New Orleans blew there wad two years ago.  Moore is out.  Defense has some injuries.

And the Packers only are laying four!  The whole world solar system is on Green Bay.  So why are the books smiling?

BOOKS >>>>

NEW ORLEANS +4

THERE IS NO DOUBT THAT THEY ARE CROOKED.. BUT NUMBER ONE ONLY 54% ARE ON GB.. AND # 2 ITS A LONG WEEKEND THEY WILL GIVE IT AWAY TONIGHT KNOWING IT WILL SET THE TONE FOR BETTORS TAKING FAV'S AND OVER ALL WEEKEND,  THERE MONEY WILL BE MADE TONIGHT WITH 70% OF THE MONEY ON OSU -13-14..
 
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Posted: #61
ooooohhhhhhh to each's own but geeeeeeezzzzzzzz BS does not cease to amaze.this game ( huge for X reasons) with playoff feel is under microscope especially after NfL labor issues.all eyes on this one.so for tonite throw conspiracy theory in trash where it belongs!!!
If Saints win = Conspiracy ???? pleassssssssssssse....lmao...
if anything saints never been consistent on road , on natural turf.
 
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Posted: #62

Tried not to play this game, never bet your heart. Packer homer. After winning HUGE on the SUPERBOWL I think I have some extra to put a few units on the PACKERS -4.5. Leaning on the OVER, but no play yet.

GLTA

 
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Posted: #63

Teaser Time

Green Bay Packers +2
New England Patriots -½

I really like both of these teams to take care of business in week one.  However more inclined to tease them into a situation where only a win is necessary for both.  



 
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Posted: #64
Last 11 superbowl champs won their season opener.  i dont know if the 4 pts is too much here, im going to go with now an see the packers coming out strong at home opening nite with a  7 pt victory. G.B. for me
 
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Posted: #65
Hey Oahuboy808 and Coloneljim I have literally been coming onto Covers and following both your posts for years now, you both really know your stuff!! What are you guys thinking for tonight, I never like to mess with the games week one but I was having an urge haha...I really like the Saints getting points and the under (I think both teams offenses will be rusty and GB's D is still GB's D and 48 points is a lot) But honestly I don't know how I can bet against Rodgers and the Pack at home on opening night...Where are you two guys leaning towards now...Thanks for the help let's all win BIG this year!!
 
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Posted: #66
Big let down after great season and Super Bowl win .Bet the dog and take the Saints
 
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Posted: #67
NO @ GB -4.5 O/U 48, ML NO +200, ML GB -240

Still using the Wall St quants analysis, worked well for NBA since there are more games and more data. 

Pro football is harder, fewer games, more randomness, but ...
using 800 gms data (past 3 seasons) 

I found ML on NO at +200 to be a slight advantage should be +180
so the -240 on GB is too high (-180)

On pt spread no strong bias shows up.
Put a gun to my head and I would have to take the away dog at +5. But it is weak, probably within the noise of the system.

Taking the under, 48 is a little high.

The key to wagering is the amt of the bet. It must be customized to the degree of risk. Unfortunately, you have to figure out for yourself.
 
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Posted: #68
wow Dukeycat, crazy stuff there, how does this work? I agree with you on the under and I kinda like the Saints getting the points as well...
 
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Posted: #69

The fucking saints are going to lose by more the 5, they have a starting Wide reciever out and a bad d# its over buddy. This is not 2008 when they won, remember farve threw the game like a dumb ass.

 
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Posted: #70
GB 1Half adding OKLA 1half big
 
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Posted: #71
I shook my magic 8-ball and got the Saints straight up +195. It's like a 2 pick parlay but with a single (albeit really bad) bet.
 
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Posted: #72
Quote Originally Posted by BloodyShredder:

Preface: The NFL is probably the most crooked game in town after the NBA.

Green Bay are da champs!  Rodgers is the best QB in the league!  The have Grant and Finley back back!  Their D is going in the top five in fantasy drafts.

New Orleans blew there wad two years ago.  Moore is out.  Defense has some injuries.

And the Packers only are laying four!  The whole world solar system is on Green Bay.  So why are the books smiling?

BOOKS >>>>

NEW ORLEANS +4

the question to ask is why the line hasnt moved up dramatically when gb is the public team.....the answer is the books want gb money here still and view NO as a decent investment no matter how it pans out....books win in the long run.

no bet for me but fading the public is one damn good idea
 
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Posted: #73

I'll put my  on the team that walked off the field Champions in their last game, not the team that ended their season getting beat by the Seahawks (lol) in round 1 of last years playoffs

PACKERS !!

 
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Posted: #74
Pack wins by 14...    30-16...NO without Will Smith on defense...
 
 
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Posted: #75
2 team teaser: Saints +10.5, over 41.5
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