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Pittsburgh at Green Bay (02/06/2011)

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Posted: #151
Quote Originally Posted by BreakaBookie:

of those 32, how many covered?

or is the 32 figure ATS?

 

That would be straight-up....so this trend would point towards the GB on the ML.

 
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Posted: #152
Mendenhall for Superbowl MVP +750
 
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Posted: #153
The bears shut down the pack pretty good if you take away that one 1st drive and I'd have to believe Pitts D is better than the Bears. Add in a Pittsburg offense that looks a hell of a lot better than the bears so im going with the Steelers here in a game that wont be that close.
 
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Posted: #154
I expect the GB offense to do better than the Pitt backers think.  Troy's achilles will still hamper his mobility some as that type of injury not only lingers but gets to you mentally.  If Rogers O line doesnt let him down too much(Clifton will be the key..can he perform well again), Rogers may very well have his way since his 3rd or 4th receivers will often have good separation.  I see James Jones or Nelson having a big day and would not be surprised at a running game set up by the pass to at least prevent easy defensive adjustments.
On the other side of the ball, I fear Pouncey's loss(inspite of a decent replacement) will impact the steelers run game somewhat and definately impact a fairly poor pass protecting O line. The center on a team may well be the second most critical player.  Ben will extend plays and take chances, some will work but I would be surprised if the GB D didnt come up big a couple times. 
I am betting the better O line pass protection wins here and my pick is GB. money line, first half and game.
Good luck to all of you.  This promises to be exciting.
 
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Posted: #155
Quote Originally Posted by Irisheyez:

Man.....hard to go against Pitt here.....very hard to do that......Bears had a chance to tie that game late with a third string qB.......as a matter of fact, I submit that if Hannie would have come in and played the third quarter, the Bears would have had even a better chance to win that game.  If the Packers struggle to score 14 offensive points in that game after an opening 7 point drive.....what the heck is Pitt gonna do to the 6th seed, 6 lose Pack.......Looks like the wrong team is favored here.  But, that is just a gut reaction without any real thought or digging. 

Irish my man. What Up brah?

Yes the Packers struggled to score but they drove the ball up and down that field. They could have easily scored 2 more TD's if it weren't for the TO (INT) in the red zone. On top of that, it was an outdoor field that was cold, slippery, wet and we all know that Packers are a dome team. Look at what they did to the Giants defense in their house. Giants "D" at that time was putting QB's out of the game. Pitt does have a solid rush defense but they do not expect the Packs to run much. That is the key for the Pack as I see them taking advantage of Pitt blitzing as often possible and suseptive to a screen with Starks at the helm. 10 yards here, 15 yards there. Next thing you know, Packs are in the Red Zone. 

On the other side of the ball, Packers defense is well balanced. it is Pitt that will have a hard time scoring a lot of points due to the fact that they will try and control time of possession by the run. That wont help them keep up with Rodgers. I don't see this game being as close as everyone thinks. Packers will run away from the 2nd quarter and Pitt will play catch up all game. That will get them off their game plan and desperation will set in. INT'S, INT'S INT'S.

Packers 32

Pitt 9
 
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Posted: #156
if anyone would take pitt andthe over..buy the point to make it a 3 and a half dog...if it goes over thats the play i cant see greenbay doing it all themselfs.pit is going to put up some points also.this is going to be a fast game with alot of points going back and forth..im jumping on the over..but if i did take pitt i would buy the extra point..good luck to everyone and enjoy the game........................27...24...eitherway
 
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Posted: #157
Here is my almost safe bet ---A THREE TEAM TEASE--OVER ON THE PRO BOWL SCORE(OVER 53)-----STEELERS +12.5(SO FAR)----OVER ON THE SCORE(34.5 SO FAR)-----IT MIGHT BE A BIT NAMBY PAMBY BUT WINNING DOES MAKE IT MORE INTERESTING----PRO BOWL OVER SHOULD BE EASY ,THE TEA LEAVES,OOPS I MEANT THE STATS POINT THAT WAY---GOOD LUCK ALL!!!!
 
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Posted: #158

I see a close game all the way from start to finish with Big Ben & Co. prevailing.  It may even take overtime which i think is a great prop bet considering the return is usually set at 10-1 or more.

Steelers are more experienced.  And that's the bottom line for my choice in this game.  Also:  It became very clear in watching game vs. Bears that Rodgers gets off track when suffering a hard hit.  He was very ineffective for an entire half of football after that hit by Peppers, and the game surprisingly became anyone's game with the likes of Caleb Hanie at the helm.  That was no easy victory for the Packers whatsoever and i think they're pretty lucky that Cutler wasn't able to play the 2nd half. 

STEELER NATION ALL DAY AS THEY GO UP THE STAIRWAY TO SEVEN!$!$!$!

 
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Posted: #159

Reviewed the PIT NYJ game, and found the PIT D to be lacking againsr the passing game, blitz worked well for PIT, way too many blown coverages.GB in there game saw the sme thing.

Pit passing game was well defensed same as GB. Both QB's are excellent with there passing decisions and both can be picked. Both O's paasing games be stopped but only to a certain point. Both D's can be thown on to a certain point.

Alot of talk about PIT losing there center, The back up is more than capable but an injury to Scott another versatile lineman for PIT, leaves PIT critically short on depth. No one runs on PIT but GB will try PIT needs to be able run more consistenly through out the game.

Special teams PIT has an excellent return game as of late nad it better be working cause IMO GB has a better punter, and no doubt a better FG kicker, PIT's kicker is a replacement and forget him outside the 45 GB cna and has made long kicks. I think this were the spead comes in PIT has to drive deeper than GB for a FG. If this game stays close (and I think it will) this  could be big edge.

PITs big edge is SB experience a good example of this is Casey Hampton the PIT NT  had a great game VS Mangold one of the best C in the league thats one intangible about this PIT team they seem to be able elevate there play in the big money games.

Taking PIT medium play.

 
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Posted: #160
Quote Originally Posted by FleshGordun:

Watched the GB CHI game again (recorded) and amend my statement about GB. Despite a good running game ( CHI fans sorry, Urlacher cant get off blocks anymore) Rogers was completely ineffective unable to find open recievers. I have to ask is the CHI D better than the PIT D equal?  GB needed to score, was trying to score and was completely blanked drive after drive. Conversely Haini haney WTF his name is drove his team repeatedly into GB territory eventually throwing INTs.

Observations: Rogers is extremely accurate putting the ball where only his recievers cna catch it. However, GB recievers were unable to get seperation and or Rogers was unable to find the open one. Again is the PIT D at least equal to CHI?

DEF GB has a fine pass rush but they are poor against the run particularly short yardage.other wise there excellent.

It has been mentioned that GB during the season was unable to generate come form behind victories where as PIT has. Except for ATL I cant see evidence of this supposed juggernaut spread offense when its really needed. IMO PIT D is better than ATL at least equal to CHI. PIT 3-4 D has better LB's across the board and more complicated in disguising coverages. From 09 to 10 PIT has changed there CB play from a large cushion 90% to tighter man coverage vastly improving the short to medium pass defense, however leaving them vulnerable to the long pass (JETS game).

Both PIT and GB offenses have seemingly lost momentum in the second half of there last games and now have 2 weeks off, I havent reviewed the PIT NYJ game, but right now I am thinking of waiting till the public pushes the # up and playing the under.


they didnt lose momentum, they were just playing it safe because they had the lead..
 
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Posted: #161
The safest bet here is the OVER

OVER 44 (-107) 5units

GLTA.
 
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Posted: #162
I'm starting to get a little nervous by this time the line should have been bouncing around but it is not. It is staying around 2.5 and at 44. Which means this is going to be a very tight game like a 1 point victory and low scoring which that would favor Pitt or a beat down by one of the teams and it is not going to be close. The line should have adjusted for pouncy injury or maybe vegas just does not want to adjust the line and make so obvious that is a factor. Which then everyone would jump on Greenbay. Give me your feedback
 
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Posted: #163

Quote Originally Posted by danielbriseno:

I'm starting to get a little nervous by this time the line should have been bouncing around but it is not. It is staying around 2.5 and at 44. Which means this is going to be a very tight game like a 1 point victory and low scoring which that would favor Pitt or a beat down by one of the teams and it is not going to be close. The line should have adjusted for pouncy injury or maybe vegas just does not want to adjust the line and make so obvious that is a factor. Which then everyone would jump on Greenbay. Give me your feedback

As reported by ESPN: "Doug Legursky will be starting. He replaced Pouncey in the 1st Qtr. of last Sunday's Championship Game against the Jets, and Pittsburgh did not appear to struggle much, with the change at center." Obviously, the books observed the same thing in issuing the number. Line  adjusting is normally reserved for high profile players (skilled) or impact players like Troy P. where the filling in backups cannot compensate talent-wise. For years, I always thought that the Steelers Offensive line sucked, as Ben was taking more than the number of average sacks. I seen the same thing with GB's' Rodgers, in his earlier years. However, both QB's are "playmakers", and simply take more time in the pocket to make something happen. Spreads such as 1,3,4,6,7,10,11,13,14, and 17 are "key" numbers.  Vegas needs a very good reason to move his line either off of or onto one of these key numbers. I have found in over 20 years of capping that the injury factor is highly suspect and overrated. Normally, the rosters of the average NFL team are not filled with a bunch of stumblebums, as backups. In fact I love getting extra points my way, because of the publics over perception with the injury factor, and my wallet hasn't suffered any harmful effects.

 
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Posted: #164

Hello Vue,

 

I have read alot of positive things about you and your picks who do you like in the superbowl and what do you think about the the over?

 
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Posted: #165

Hello Vue,

Here is my write up let me know what you think?

Head to Head the score is 22/17 in favor of Pitt. Pitt on the road scores 24/15 in favor of Pitt, Greenbay on the road scores 20/14 in favor of GreenBay, Teams that made the playoffs this is how the Greenbay did against those teams the score averaged out to be 22/16 in favor of Greenbay, Teams that Pitt has played that made the playoffs the score averaged out to be 19/20 in favor of Greenbay. Pitt last 3 games averaged 32/17 and Greenbay last 3 games averaged 30/17.Teams that are similar to opponents Pitt has played during the regular season to a Greenbay team are Alanta twice, Jets twice, New England,Baltimore 3x when those scores are averaged it is 20/19 in favor of Greenbay. The opponents similar to a Pitt team that  Greenbay has played are Alanta twice,Jets,Miami,Giants,Philly twice the scores averages out to 20/17 in favor of GreenBay. Both Pitt and Jets played some of the same opponents throughout the year those scores average out to be 31/26 in favor of Greenbay. When you average all the numbers it comes out to 20.5. For the Pitt but I will add 3 points to the Pitt to make the score which makes it 24 and when you average the scores for Greenbay is 24. Which means this will be a tight game possibly but one reason why I’m leaning toward Greenbay is when Greenbay went into New England and almost beat them with a back up QB 27/31and that same New England team went into Pitt and beat them 39/26. Greenbay leads Pitt in the post season 3rd down conversion, completion rating, and Defensive sacks. Extra points made, Defensive pass interceptions, forced fumbles. Also Greenbay has played over 70x on artificial turf to Pitt 16x. I don’t know how much of a factor that is but that’s a big difference to you numbers guys that averages out to 31/29 in favor of Greenbay. I didn’t add that into figuring out my final score thou but anyways this is my prediction I have Greenbay to win 27 to 24. Please let me know your thoughts.

 
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Posted: #166

the numbers are right but not the packers turn them around

 
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Posted: #167
What a bunch of pussys my local bookies are ----they wouldn't take a line on either the senior bowl or the pro bowl---they were so f--spit nickels over this shit---r and c we are gonna kick ur f--ing ass in the bowl SHOW ME THE MONEY---hope my covers friends didn't have the same trouble w/ their books----arrggghhh!!!!!
 
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Posted: #168
Here is what the super bowl comes down to---expierience period--look at the niners --the cowboys--the steelers--expierence ,defense,running game----steelers have all three--Idid not think they would be where they are now ,but there you have it--green bay ---really beat up--found a running game late in the season-(eagles were only an interception away from playing the falcons for the nfc championship)--all and I mean all bullshit aside--steelers will win by 10 barring injuries to polamalu and mendenhall--green bay is too green in the big one,to pittsburgh,it's just another game --game 7---SEVEN
 
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Posted: #169

first of all, vue, you may be on a hot streak.. but there were countless weeks this year I followed your picks because of how much hype you give yourself and you were far from impressive. every game you would put LARGE on you'd lose... but anyways.

Quote Originally Posted by vue21849:

   My first reaction when the line was posted was that it's inflated. And at Super Bowl time, it usually is to accommodate less sophisiticated bettors.

exactly, with all the history and tradition of the Steelers and their recent success and dominance the line is begging for you to take Pitt. Everyone loves Pitt. They were unstoppable all year. So why give them 3 points? They want you to take the three points.

I feel the contest will be very close, till near the end. Both teams' playing styles are  a carbon copy of each other.

Not at all, lol. Pitt is a smash mouth team who likes to run the ball and set up the deep bomb to Wallace. Rarely do they come out with multiple recievers. You are misinformed. GB is the exact opposite. Before the emergence of Starks they never ran the ball, and even so I wouldn't say their a running team now, just a passing offense with a decent weapon at RB to keep teams honest so they can pass all day.

 Weeks ago, I saw the Packers potential as a possible SB team. And up till last weekend, I was gung ho, about Green Bay's chances to win it all. However, I ALWAYS bet with my head and not my heart! I'm a rabid Bears fan, but I bet against them. Sometimes, you have to make hard choices. Like when I chose the Jets over NE. 

You know it all man. You're a RABID fan? (whatever the means). Second of all, if you're a Bears fan your OBVIOUSLY betting with your heart. How could you take the Packers when they just beat your Bears and have been the longest divisional rivalry in sports. LOL. I'm going to take your PITT pick over GB. Just because you're a Bears fan and you're biased. Just like when you chose the Jets over NE? Who wouldn't getting 10 lol.

 I'm seeing the Pack as the new darlings of the media, and the betting public. I feel the number could even rise to 3 pts in the public frenzy to bet on "a good thing"! After much analysis, I'm going with:

PITTSBURGH  + 2.5

 

terrible analysis. especially coming from a bears fan lol.   carbon copies was the funniest part too btw.

 
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Posted: #170
Quote Originally Posted by joshcenci12345:

all you people out there on the green bay bandwagon need to stop.. im sick of hearing all this garbage on rodgers the best qb of all time all of a sudden.  remember this guy won his FIRST playoff game 3 weeeks ago.  Big Ben is 10-2 in the playofffs and last time i checked has 2 RINGS.  That right there is advange PITT right offf the bat.  Next,  you guys are saying G.B. defense will kill PITT's O-Line and their better an this an that, Well i dont know if you guys have been watching or not but the Steelers backup center last week didnt allow any sacks, played a hell of a game, and you never even heard how much Pouncey was missed AT ALL, it was like he wasnt even there. Obviously Pouncey is better and has been our most valuable lineman all year, but i have faith in our backup as he proved himself against a pretty good Jets defense.  Big Ben can and will make up for a beat up O-Line just as he has done his whole career, he extends plays better than any other QB in the leauge, and simply just MAKES PLAYS HAPPEN, the guy flat out just knows how to win THE BIG GAME, as he has proved with 2 rings... PITT has consistently been the best D in the league all year long.  If Rodgers an Co. will spread them out and throw all day on the Steelers D and have such a easy time,  why has this strategy not cosistenly been used by every team the steelers have played?????? If its that easy,  it would have been done all year long and PITT still went 12-4 without Ben playing the first 4 games.  Next,  G.B. running game stand ZERO chance of moving the ball..  Mendenhall just keeps running harder an harder as the weeks go by and that will allow Ben big  throwing lanes.  Also,  the G.B defense hasnt gone up against any good offenses all year, granted they played atlanta twice an shut them down, i will admit that,  an philly also but they played against vick in week 1 which really doesnt count. The Steelers offense can beat them in any way, remember G.B. rush defense was 18th in the league and the way Mendenhall has been running thats a big advantage to PITT. Ben was on fire against G.B last time they played on play action passes and with Mendenhall running the way he is, Ben can easily have another field day. Im not sayin this will be an easy win for PITT, the Pack got a tough team BUT pittsburgh is proven and is more experieced and theres no reason why PITT shouldnt go for 7!  The extra week will clearly favor PITT with Lebeau makin schemes to distract Rodgers.  Good Luck to you all

 

you are a complete moron lol.

 
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Posted: #171

Quote Originally Posted by Bowie94:

The bears shut down the pack pretty good if you take away that one 1st drive and I'd have to believe Pitts D is better than the Bears. Add in a Pittsburg offense that looks a hell of a lot better than the bears so im going with the Steelers here in a game that wont be that close.

 

uhm did you forget this game was played on the worst field in the NFL with heavy winds? oh yeah. you did. And BTW Rodgers put was like 9-12 150 yards in the first half (the only time that game mattered)

 
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Posted: #172
Quote Originally Posted by 808pickyboy:


Irish my man. What Up brah?

Yes the Packers struggled to score but they drove the ball up and down that field. They could have easily scored 2 more TD's if it weren't for the TO (INT) in the red zone. On top of that, it was an outdoor field that was cold, slippery, wet and we all know that Packers are a dome team. Look at what they did to the Giants defense in their house. Giants "D" at that time was putting QB's out of the game. Pitt does have a solid rush defense but they do not expect the Packs to run much. That is the key for the Pack as I see them taking advantage of Pitt blitzing as often possible and suseptive to a screen with Starks at the helm. 10 yards here, 15 yards there. Next thing you know, Packs are in the Red Zone. 

On the other side of the ball, Packers defense is well balanced. it is Pitt that will have a hard time scoring a lot of points due to the fact that they will try and control time of possession by the run. That wont help them keep up with Rodgers. I don't see this game being as close as everyone thinks. Packers will run away from the 2nd quarter and Pitt will play catch up all game. That will get them off their game plan and desperation will set in. INT'S, INT'S INT'S.

Packers 32

Pitt 9

 

smartest post I've seen on this threat yet. Everyone here on Pitt which is perfect (you guys always lose). This game could get ugly. can't believe no one has realized that Pitts STRENGTH (LBS) WILL BE COMPLETE NON FACTOR. LBS CAN NOT LINE UP AGAINST WRS. LOL.    HARRISON ON JAMES JONES? WOODLY ON JORDY NELSON? COME ON MAN!

 
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Posted: #173
Quote Originally Posted by danielbriseno:

Hello Vue,

 

I have read alot of positive things about you and your picks who do you like in the superbowl and what do you think about the the over?

Hey Dan,          Thanks for the comments. I've had a pretty decent season and having an outrageous playoffs. However, I hardly merit the props you're giving me. Among the cappers I know, who have been on Covers a long time, and who get excellent results, and give very good analysis are:Bigdaddyhpd,BKG 1010,Break a Bookie,Canada Cup,College Sharp, Dr. Dogs, e Willie169,Irisheyez,Oahuboy808,Phancard, and W8Lifter, among many. Whether you do your own, or "tail" other cappers, I advise to keep good records. I read your detailed analysis, and I can see you've obviously done your homework.  I strongly feel it will be a close contest. 85% of the time, the team that wins the game, covers the number. I feel this game falls into the 15 % area. It would not surprise me in the least, that the Pack could win the game, but the Steelers cover the number. I always bet against the spread. But I wouldn't fault anyone, for taking the ML on Green Bay. As for the O/U, I  honestly don't know, and I'm not about to mislead you with an opinion. (Historically most SB's have went over as most teams "showcase" their talent,open up the playbooks, and officiating tends to be a little looser with a "let them play" attitude.) AND if you follow me- fade me each year in Week # 17- I suck in that week over the last 20 years!

 
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Posted: #174
Quote Originally Posted by coversROTHSTEIN:

 

terrible analysis. especially coming from a bears fan lol.   carbon copies was the funniest part too btw.

Sorry, that I have not lived up to your high standards, this season! I plan to do better next year. Of course, if you handicapped games yourself, you wouldn't have to follow lousy cappers like me!

 
 
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Posted: #175
leanin towards GB
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