Cincinnati has statistically been the best home team in the NFL both straight up and ATS. That's a bit of a surprise given the home reputations of Seattle, Denver, and New Orleans. I expect the Bengals to get the job done this Sunday and to earn themselves a match-up at New England. However, I am expecting the Chargers to cover the spread.
The Chargers have also gone under the radar in the 2nd half of the season. They have been winners of their last 4 games and have racked up some quality wins at Kansas City and Denver. They have also been extremely competitive in all their games this season. Through the entire regular season, the Bolts have only lost 1 game by 2 scores or more!!! (oddly enough, that game was to the Raiders). Needless to say, playing a lot of close games is a good primer for the playoffs. As for the Bengals, its easy to look like a dominant home team when your piling on points against the Vikings, Jets, and the Browns (sorry Bengals fans).
I am well aware that the Bengals already beat the Chargers in week 13. But keep in mind, that was after the Bengals' week 12 bye, and it was also after a very dramatic Chargers win at Arrowhead Stadium. I had a chance to watch their week 13 match-up and I feel the Chargers let one get away because of 3 correctable mistakes.
First, on their opening drive, the Chargers were moving the ball down the field, and Antonio Gates fumbled the ball in the redzone. The Bengals than proceeded to go three and out, and punted to rookie Keenan Allen who inexplicably didn't field the ball and allowed it to bounce another 20 yards. The net result was a 75-yard punt that brought the Chargers all the way back to their own 4-yard line! A horrible change in momentum and a horrible way to start a game. Nevertheless, the Bengals changed the entire field position without moving the ball on offense and ended up scoring first. The second big mistake was once again made by Gates. In their first possession of the 2nd half in a 7-7 game, the Chargers were once again on a nice 60-yard drive, and Dre Kirkpatrick stripped the ball from Gates at the Bengals 25-yd line. Another crucial turnover that wiped out a long drive.
The Chargers ended up losing a close one, 17-10. Without the 2 fumbles by Gates and the rookie mistake by Allen, the Charges could have taken the lead twice. I think they could have easily won the game, and they definitely played well enough to cover the spread. They could have done a better job against the Bengals run game, but all in all, it was a good enough effort for me to endorse them getting 7 points this time around.
I see a very confident Charger team showing up this Sunday, and I don't anticipate weather being too much of a factor given the forecast (I would keep an eye on the wind). I am hoping for a competitive game with a couple lead changes.
Good Luck
Cin is going to kick there azz in this win cover
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