San Diego at Kansas City (10/25/2009)

its a must win for SD but so what.

they just are not as dominate as they used to be

KC is not a great team but they have been in the last few games

i'll take KC to cover

Chargers can't run the football, they can't protect their quarterback, they can't pressure the opposing quarterback. They stole two against the chiefs (dropping both ATS) last year and i guarantee the chiefs remember those games, especially the last one that they had all but locked up until the last couple minutes of the game.

honestly, only public perception has the chargers favored by more than a FG here in my opinion, and sure enough the public jumped right on the chargers and continute to pound them ATS, but that would be the wrong play here.

in the 4 meetings between these two teams in KC since KC was last a home favorite against the chargers, they are 3-1 ATS, 2-2 SU against the bolts. and there are plenty more trends:

Underdog is 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 meetings
Chiefs are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings
Chargers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a road favorite
Chiefs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. AFC West
Chiefs are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win
Chiefs are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 7 (don't know how much this matters, but interesting enough to note)

KC +6 (come gametime)

I'm going with KC.  This game has the makings for an upset.  KC is a solid home dog, they typically play well at home, and SD has not shown me anything special this year.  Theres upsets every week in the NFL and this game (aside from ATL vs. Dal and possibly MIN vs. PIT) does not have one team thats clearly better than the other. 

KC will definitly cover, and its worth putting a small play on the $ line. Dwayne Bowe and Cassel are starting to connect, LJ is playing better.  San Diego will dissappoint a ton of people tomorrow.

I bet the house on KC last week and prolly puttin the new one on Diego this week... Diego is finding their stride.. Just don't let Jamaal Charles run back two kicks and it's in the bag..

Bolts 27 Royals 9   ;) 

CHARGERS -5

Kansas City +5.5

as long as Norv remains the coach, the chargers will never make it to the superbowl. it's so frustrating watching him coaching a game.  with that said...

KC + 5 and sprinkle in the over

There have been 6 MNF games this year.  That would be 6 teams that covered and 6 teams that didn't cover.  The trends says the team that covered MNF spread will cover the next game they play.  The trend also says the team that didn't cover the MNF spread will not cover their following game...

The trend is 11-1 ATS with only the Cowboys bucking. They covered against Carolina Monday the 28th and followed up with a loss ATS to Denver.

You can only lead the horse to the water....can't make it drink!!

GL

CHARGERS BOUNCE BACK HERE!

CHARGERS -5.5

NFL  WEEK 1 ATS (5-11)

NFL  WEEK 2 ATS (5-1-10)

NFL  WEEK 3 ATS (9-7)

NFL WEEK 4 ATS (8-6)

NFL WEEK 5 ATS (8-6)

NFL WEEK 6 ATS (5-9)

San Diego to right the ship

33 - 16

Over 44