Tennessee at San Diego (01/06/2008)

i have one word that may sum this whole game up...norv.

 

I worry about rivers, although the bolts are playing really hot right now. I couldn't resist the +10 I got on Tenn. That's a lot of points in a NFL Playoff game. In addition, looks like there could be rain in SD. that ball just might slip out of someones hand. you never know.

 

Don`t be fooled by teasers in NFL playoffs

I don’t tease games in the NFL playoffs. As we’ve seen throughout the playoffs again this year, playoff games have a higher variance from the pointspread compared to regular season games.

None of the four losing teams in the Wild Card round covered the pointspread, or the teaser pointspread. Tampa Bay, Jacksonville, New York and Cincy all lost by more than a touchdown against the spread. It was a similar story last week, as the Bears, Colts and Patriots all failed to cover even on a teaser spread – only the Redskins were turned from a loser or a push into a winner with the extra six points.

This is not uncommon at this time of the year. In 2004, the Wild Card round saw the same 0-4 ATS mark for losing teams, even with an extra touchdown.

In 2003, two of the four losing ATS teams covered the teaser line, while we saw one underdog lose the game in spread covering fashion (Seattle), making their opponent, Green Bay, good on teasers.

In 2002, we also had two winning teams fail to cover the spread (Pittsburgh against Cleveland and the 49ers against the Giants), but both were good on the teaser line.

2001? All four winners covered the pointspread, all four losers were losers even with an extra six points, although San Francisco covered on a 7-point teaser at Green Bay, as 3 1/2-point underdogs in a 25-15 loss.

In 2000, all four winners covered the pointspread, and none of the four losers would have cashed a ticket even with an extra touchdown.

So, over a six-year span, we get some clear results for the Wild Card round of the playoffs here in the 21st century. The team that won, covered the pointspread at a 21-3 clip (87.5 percent). Pick the straight up winner and you’ll pick the ATS winner, it’s just that simple. An extra six points really don’t make much of a difference.

The results don’t lie. Teasers need to improve your winning percentage from 52.4 percent (the break even point for straight bets at -110 juice) to 66.7 percent (the break even point for teaser bets) in order to prove profitable.

Yet teaser bettors found that only four of the 24 teams that lost in the Wild Card round over the last six years benefited from the extra six points; just five of the 24 teams benefited if you laid the extra juice required for a 7-point teaser.

Teasers aren’t any good in the Divisional playoff round either. It certainly makes sense – the rested home teams are the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds, the best teams in the league all season. Their opponents were forced to play a tough playoff game last week, many times on the road.

The underdogs that cover the spread in these games (and the spreads in the second week of the playoffs are usually higher than the spreads in the Wild Card round), tend to be the playoff surprises, and they tend to win the game outright. The home favorites that cover in this round tend to win in blowout fashion. Put the two factors together and you can see why teasers generally provide poor results at this time of year.

In the Divisional round of the playoffs last year, three of the four winners won by 13 points or more. The 2003 playoffs were odd - it saw all four games decided by a touchdown or less, but 2002, 2001 and 2000 each saw only one game decided by less than two touchdowns. It’s blowout city time, folks, and blowouts are the antithesis of what teaser bettors are looking for.

Six-point teaser bettors covered only one of the four Divisional round games last year, with the Steelers pushing against the teaser line, winning by three as 9-point favorites. In 2003, the exception-to-the-rule year saw teaser bettors cash on only two of the four ATS losers – despite the close results, the underdogs won two of the four games outright, leaving those who teased the Rams from -7 down to -1 against the Panthers and those who teased the Chiefs from -3 to +3 against the Colts banging their heads against the wall in dismay.

In 2002? One teaser mattered, as the Titans beat the Steelers by three in overtime, laying four points. In 2001 only the Raiders covered on the teaser line at New England, in the infamous ‘tuck rule’ overtime game. In 2000 the Eagles got the push on the 6-point teaser in their 10-point loss to the Giants as 4-point underdogs.

Put all the results together and we find that teasers in the Divisional round produced only slightly above in the Wild Card round.

There are only three games left in the NFL season: the conference championship games this weekend and the Super Bowl two weeks from Sunday. One might think that the linesmakers are so confident in their numbers, and so familiar with the strengths and weaknesses of the teams involved that these games often fall right around the pointspread, making teasers a very profitable play. In fact, that is not the case at all.

Conference championship games historically have been littered with blowouts. The peaking teams play extremely well; the losing teams often seem to run out of steam only 60 minutes from a Super Bowl appearance.

There has not been a single conference championship game decided by a single digit margin in the last three years. All the winning teams won by 10 points or more: Philly by 17 and New England by 14 last year; New England by 10 and Carolina by 11 in 2003; Tampa Bay by 17 and Oakland by 17 in 2002. The straight up loser was the ATS loser in every one of those games, and an additional six points made absolutely no difference to the outcome.

In 2001, both games were relatively close, with the Patriots winning by seven at Pittsburgh and St Louis winning by five against Philly. But New England was the underdog in that game, and the Rams were double digit favorites. Even final scores that were closer did not produce teaser wins, although those who teased St Louis down from -11 to -5 probably got the push.

In 2000, blowouts were once again the norm, as the Giants beat the Vikings by 41 and the Ravens beat the Raiders by 13. Both straight up winners were underdogs; teaser bettors were not rewarded at all.

So, here in the 21st century, teaser bettors have not cashed a single ticket on the 10 championship games, getting only a single push back in 2001.

Tight lines that get two-way action from the bettors aren`t indicators that the games are going to finish close to the number. Betting teasers in conference championship games has been nothing short of a disaster, 0-9-1 over the last five years. I urge you to avoid teaser bets this weekend.

When it comes to the NFL, take it from Ted Sevransky. He is a a professional handicapper with Covers Experts.

SD 10units

tennessee has no shot in this game , san diego has been so good the last month and the titans were lucky to get by a depleted indianapolis team just to be here , tomlinson has a field day and the chargers win this huge 31-10 to set up a date with the colts in indy next week.

 

 

 

I have to think the under would be the play.  If I can get a line, I will play the Tenn team under.  I am guessing it would be somewhere around 13. 

I'm in san diego and it's been raining steadily all day - nothing heavy - but certainly constant.  Local sports authority is sold out of rain ponchos (needed one as I'll be at the game).  Forecast is for steady rain all day tomorrow and into Monday.

 

Field will be in good but not great shape as the holiday bowl was about 10 days ago.  Won't turn into a mudder, but the rain will likely mean a wet ball and a turnover or two.

I sure after I say this he will make be eat crow.  But, I am happy that VY is starting.  I have probably seen him play a dozen times between college and pro.  I am comfortable saying that his big play passing always starts with the threat of him being able to run.  He is NOT a drop back QB.  Take into consideration that he will be much less than 100% and the field being a little slick, I don't see his legs as much of a threat.  Now consider that Roydell and Scarfe are out.  SD will have a lot of options for their defensive scheme adjustments.  On top of that, White is hobbled by a sore knee as well.  So, their top three best short yardage options are gone (Youngs legs, white and Scarfe on play action).  I just can't see how Tenn. will be able to sustain drives.  As long as SD does not give them a short field, they won't score much.

 

Because of all the above, I don't see SD taking any chances.  Runs, Screen and short play action to Gates.  If Tenn tries to put too many in the box, maybe a throw a few up for Chambers to keep the safeties honest.  SD has to go into this game knowing that they just have to be patient, feed LT the ball and win the field position war.

 

Personally, I have loved SD all week since watching Tenn back into the playoffs as their offense had trouble moving the ball until Collins bailed them out against several of Indy subs.  But, the under looks like an even smarter bet.  Even smarter, the under on Tenn points.  It is at 13 now. 

 

5 units Tenn Under

3 units Under for game

1 unit parlay SD and under

JAX GAME WAS RIGGED...

I talked to a significant player on the Titans who is a friend and he said it doesn't matter who plays at QB for the whole game, they will contest a good game

new to thread was wondering how to check old threads like the jax vs pits

BIGDADDY, where are you? We need your expert opinion.

bigdaddy...i was thinking the same thing!!!  tough to take a norv turner team in any playoff game!!!  tough to take a qb who can't throw the rock though!!!(vince)   gonna hold off and see how the first one goes and break this down a little more!!!

There are key things being missed in this game.  The Titans and VY have had the better running game this year than the Chargers, they also have the more stought defense.  The Titans will cover the 10 and may just win outright.