2018 Masters Strategy and Tips

This is a hobby, especially golf.  I play, I'm about a 12-14 handicap with about even odds I break 80 or 100 but typically end up in the mid to high 80s.  Hopefully my approach helps some folks but disclaimer to follow at your own risk.

This is likely the most difficult sport you can handicap, keep in mind it is different than just about any other sport you may handicap as there is no team and although tennis is similar there is a repeatableness and eliteness athletically there that doesn't apply here.

First, in case you are fairly new to golf note that for the most part the season ends towards October of every year.  Many of the better players take that time as the offseason and the start of the new season begins in January with the better players pacing themselves with specific events to tune them for the first Major of every year The Masters.  The Masters is also unique as a "Major" tour event in that it is the only one played at the same course every year.  If you don't know more about this majestic spectual I suggest you Google the plentiful info out there which elaborates on the particulars of this course/event and why most of the golfing world considers this the best golf course in the world.

So I'll try to shorten the rest of this (well probably not).  Starting point, WHO WILL MAKE THE CUT.  This is very important, the elite status of this event means you get the best and smallest field of any event.  Higher level of competition means pressure and a lower score cut point.  I have a lot of time invested in ranking up data and working some formulas, the bottom line I've identified 25 players who I think are the top 25 for this years event.  Rather than fill pages with details I'd suggest doing a bit of digging yourself to understand what is important here.  I few notables that did not make that list are:  Adam Scott, Charl Schwartzel, Charley Hoffman, and Ian Poulter (although an argument maybe should be made).  I note those as a bet for NOT MAKING THE CUT is reasonable for those on the list.

MAKING THE CUT

We will use the last 10 scheduled majors as a the measuring stick (some players didn't play all).  Of my top 25, 6 had better than 80% making the cut rate.

 10/10    8/9    9/10   5/6 (don't like him for Top 10 or better though)   4/4* (3 of those 2011-2012 but did make the cut in only Masters appearance (33rd) last year)   9/10

80% Cut Rate (8 so 14 of 25 are good YES MAKE THE CUT wagers and might need some of those to hedge Top 10, Top 5 and To Win bets)

Dustin Johnson 8/10  / Rickie Fowler 8/10  / Paul Casey 8/10  / Hideki Matsuyama 8/10  / Sergio Garcia 8/10 / Louie Oosthuizen 8/10 / Marc Leishman 8/10

Before you decide have a look at their Masters cut history and don't be afraid to lay a big number (Note Matt Kuchar has missed the cut here 1 time, back in 2002 in 11 tries....that is 10 in a row and he is playing well coming in).

TOP 10 (or whatever first leve after CUT is available to you)

No since in picking winners if you don't even know the odds of your guy showing up on Sunday are.  Let me cock block any Bromances before they start, we want only the facts here folks, don't fall in love with anyone.  For PLACE type wagering (Top 30, Top 20, etc) we need to separte out who can win vs who can hang and play solid.  For that we need to look at what is required to win at the Masters, that list although there are an exception or two is as follows:

Sorry this was a long writeup and there was charater limit.

Better than 80% Cut Rate

Jorand Speith 10/10  / Justin Thomas 8/9  / Jason Day / Jon Rahm 5/6 (don't like here) / Pat Cantlay 4/4* (3 were 2011-12 but did make cut last year at Masters) / Matt Kuchar 9/10

Criteria for Winning Masters

1.  UNDER 40 YEARS OLD  2. OWGR TOP 30 RANKING (World Golf)  3.  NOT MASTERS ROOKIE  4.  TOP 30 MASTERS FINISH  5. TOP 10 FINISH IN ANY EVENT THIS SEASON  6. AT LEAST 1 PGA TOUR WIN ON BENTGRASS GREENS 6.  TOP 15 FINISH in MAR/APRIL THIS SEASON  7.  LIKELY NOT THE OWGR #1 OR THE DEFENDING CHAMP......Alternate Criteria:  Distance to Apex Driving Ranking of Top 70 (high ball flight)  not required but helpful

These criteria have held true to the tune of 80-90% with minimal exceptions since the course was overhauled in 2008 and most go back to 2002.  My lists below will take these as well my stats formula and major/Masters history into consideration....a player may check all the boxes but not have much history in majors/here to justify wagering Top 10 or better or there is enough of a feast/famine history to suggest the price is not worth the risk of a missed cut.  Also some of the players are in there because of great value at their price.  In addition to all the criteria above as we work done to Top 5 and To Win wagers you need to understand what type of player typically wins here.  It goes beyond stats, you need a creative, gun slinger/risk taker, scrambling is a MUST, and not just good putting stats someone who can sink long difficult putts.  A player like Adam Scott is a great example to use here, he has won and played well here in the past and he is a great at most facets of the game but he is not who you want to be riding a car payment on to sink numerous 25-30 ft birder or par putts on out here.  Another example is Dustin Johnson, his scrambling and clutch putting has always been a weakness and make for a real challenge for him to win here.  I also think you need to consider the specific circumstances for the year.  This year with generally good weather (except Sat) and mostly low winds and the field that is playing (the wildcard of Tiger) how they are playing and decide how competiive you think this one will be.  I think there will be many who can put up low scores and keep pressure on anyone leading which to me means your gonna need mental toughness and a backdoor top 10 might be harder to come by for the careful/solid players.  Another thing to note is this course rewards calculated stratetic iron players, the perfect trio is great iron player, great scrambler, great clutch putt sinker.  Driving is way over rated here, especially accuracy, it means very little.  GIR at this course is very, very important.

TO PLACE OR BETTER

Jordan Spieth  / Matt Kuchar / Jason Day* / Hideki Matsuyama* / Paul Casey / Brian Harman* / Ryan Moore

Briefly, Spieth is the only 10/10 cut maker in the majors, has 2 of 3 Top 5 performances here and an 11 and has never placed below 37th in any major.  If you believe his brief putting woes are behind him like I do then he has the best stats of anyone in the field.  Kuchar I started with as only a Make the Cut or Top 10 wager as he isn't the aggressive/creative shotmaker that is typically required but at his price and considering his last 5 major record of 9-2-16-4-MC is one of the best in the field I like him all the way to To Win (he also competed very well last week in Houston and has a Masters last 5 of 8-5-46-24-4).  Jason Day is changing irons this week, he did arrive early not playing in Houston so I few that as positive and at this price I can't ignore a last 5 Majors record of 9-27-22-2 and a last 5 Masters record of 3-20-28-10-22.  Hideki Matsuyama is probably the best iron player in the world, perhaps the best of all time.  He has an asterik because he injured his wrist earlier this year and after starting the year like he finished last year (strong) he has yet to prove he is completely over this.  At this price though and a last 5 Major Record of 5-14-2-11-4 and a last 5 Masters Record of 54-MC-5-7-11 I think it is worth the risk.  Paul Casey last 5 Major record is 13-11-26-6-10 and last 5 Masters record is 38-MC-6-4-6, he did turn 40 this year though but he also has the most sub 70 rounds at the Masters (other than Phil and Tiger).  Brian Harman is my longshot darkhorse, he is a Savannah, Georgia native (near Augusta) it is concerning that in his debut 3 years ago (and only Masters appearance) he missed the cut but since then his Major record is 13-MC-2, including a solid impressive dogfight in last years US open which he lost a heartbreaker in a playoff to Brooks Koepka to.  He checks all the criteria (currently ranked #23 OWGR) and is in excellent form including finishes of 3-4-5-9 in 2018.  He also has 2 bentgrass green wins in his career....more than many better names.  There is tremendous value here, although he has yet to prove himself here, and for a carrot I'll add going back into 2017 he has shot in the 60s in the 1st round 9 of 11 tournaments and shot in the 60s in both of the last 2 majors (one he missed the cut on)...great value for 1st round leader also.  Before you think I'm completely off my rocker with Harman, statistically speaking only (my formula) I have him as the 6th best player in the field behind only Spieth/Thomas/Rose/Mickelson/Johnson.  Ryan Moore is a bit of feast or famine and although he checks all the the 2/5 MC here in the last 5 is a concern and I don't think he has the stats or history to win in this field.  His last 5 Majors is 13-MC-9-70-46 and his last 5 Masters is 38-MC-12-MC-9.  What tipped the scale for me on Moore is he has 5 rounds in the 60s here in 5 trips.  That is more than Dustin Johns, Hideki Matsuyama and ties Jason Day.

Rather than go into the any more detail on Top 5 and To Win I'll cover a few of the big names and why I don't like them here.  Between this and the PLACE info I think you can decide for yourself.

Justin Thomas -  He more than checks all the boxes and can win this.  What I didn't like is in two trips here he has placed no better than 22nd and has no rounds under 70.  If you don't believe Spieths putter will work this week he has the best stats in the field.  I fault no one for taking him to WIN though, might be handy come Sunday...don't like pricing for Top 5 or Top 10 though.

Justin Rose -  He is a great pick of the past for me.  He has the 2nd best recent stats in the field.  He has 3/5 top 10 finishes here at the Masters in his last 5.  Generally I think the Brits play tough here, once they have a few goes at it.  So why not?  Well most of it is price, but his last 3 Majors are MC-54-MC and stepping back further his is just 1/7 Top 10s (2nd here last year).  I also think his finish at Houston last week was very, very poor and perhaps the 2 seconds here in recent years combined with the quality of this field just make it a no go at this price

Phil Mickelson - Like Rose he has the best Top 10 historical odds in the field and unlike Rose he has 3 Green Jackets.  he is also 3rd best coming in statistically.  But he is 56% making the cut in the last 10 Majors and is only 1/9 Top 10 finishes in those (the British which I think is the most forgiving of the majors) with no wins.  He's also 47 and looks like he has put on a LB or 20 in the last 2 years.  His finish at Houston last week is a big concern for me also, so blasts from the past blow up holes.  I don't like it at this price and this field.  In fact I'm going to be betting NOT MAKE THE CUT at a juicy price (he has 2 of those in his last 5 here).

Rickie Fowler -  Fault no one for taking him but his stats and mental toughness don't match up.  Very disappointed to see he fold after taking the 3rd round lead in Houston last week.  And it was a bad fold.  He is 2/5 Top 5 in his last 5 Majors but it falls to 2/10 Top 10 (those two 5s) and 3/10 Top 20 going further back which speaks to the mental progress...not progressing.  On the positive he checks all the boxes and is top 10 statistically.  Supposedly he has the most $ bet on him.

Tiger -  Not at this price.  Statistically he should contend, his GIR % is a serious concern though.

Sergio -  Not good form in recent Majors after winning last year.  Repeating is difficult here.  He has the recent stats to contend though.

Jon Rahm -  Supposedly the 5th most $ bet on him.  Great making the cut % so far for him but he not only is 0/6 Top 20s in a major he faded badly here last year after tieing for the lead at one pt to finish 27th.  Too emotionally immature IMO and baby steps anyway, how about a Top 20 finish first.

Alex Noren -  No bentgrass green victories, MC here last year is a Euro player and only decent Major outing was the British (forgiving and aligns with Euro tour games) in Top 10, otherwise 57% making the Major cut and never finished below 46th.  Great recent form though.

Rory McIlroy -  Wait he is a savant and the next Jack Nickalus....just ask anyone from the UK.  Sorry Rory, statistically I have you 18th best in the field in recent form and 99th in Par 4 Scoring, 188th in GIR and 57th Putting Avg won't do it in this field.  He is also at 67% Making the Cut in last 10 majors.  A nugget found here as well, in his last 5 Masters he has had a blown round (77 or higher) in either the 2nd or 3rd round and finished out the 4th round with a sub 70.  That pads the stats and perhaps good for the 4th round but he confirms what the eye test says that he has not seriously competed here in a quite a while and he has some demons to overcome here.

Good luck and keep some powder dry for the in-game and especially Sunday.

Cool.  Now doubt some things will be off, sometimes way off.  Hopefully I'm hedged a bit and if not setting some aside for live betting helps.