Arnold Palmer Invitational plays

 I cannot really expand on what has already been said in previous posts. But here are the two I am on this week:

Noren +115 vs Hideki M: Noren has been really solid this year. Making the cut in each event and having 5 top 25 with a second and a third so far. Hideki is coming off a layoff with a wrist injury that occurred in early February. Throw in the fact that Hideki is paired up with Tiger the first two days which is an absolute circus. If Hideki is on on his game he is one of the best in the world, but being grouped with Tiger and coming off an injury, I will take a shot on Noren at plus money. I bet this earlier at +115.. currently +130 on Noren now.

Fleetwood -110 vs Rory: this is a flat out fade of Rory McIlroy. Tons of talent but he just isn't firing on all cylinders for whatever reason. Coming off a T59 and a missed cut. I will take a shot on Tommy in this spot.

11-8 +4.05 units YTD in golf

I am not a huge fan of these single round match ups, but I am taking a shot at this one:

Stanley -150 vs Potter Jr: This is a flat out fade on Potter. Great story winning at Pebble but since then he has three missed cuts since and first rounds have been 76,77,76 (in case you don't know that is not good)... Stanley was a top 20 in this event last year and knows the course. Potter has not played in this event. Throw in the circus of being the group in front of Tiger. I think both of these guys will struggle but even more so Potter. Juice is high but I think it is worth it...

Potter fade in round one came through so giving this match up a shot in round two:

Grillo -130 vs Schwartzel 2nd round only Arnold Palmer Invitational

Both of these guys are solid top 100 players in the world. I really like how Grillo has played this season compared to Schwartzel. He is 26th in shots gained vs the field in every round this season thus far at +1.2 with an average round score of 70.4. Schwartzel on the other hand is ranked 156th at -0.6 shots gained vs the field and an average round score of 71.9. In round one these guys were paired together as they will be in round two. Grillo hit it longer, had one more fairway than his opponent, and he putted over two shots better than him on the greens. Overall he ended up beating Schwartzel by 4 on day one. Throw in the fact that Grillo has solid history in this event (T7 last year and T17 the year prior). Schwartzel has played this event once and was a T45...-130 looks more than reasonable in this spot. Mind you this is golf and anything can happen...

This play was on my radar. I will join you on it. Feel lucky getting the push on Grillo match. Not much worse than having a one shot lead going into 18 and hits one OB. Schwartzel played like I thought he would... really expected a much better performance from Grillo. No complaints it's a push. Good luck today with An.

Thanks for the An play Sacker. Great call!

Hahn -110 vs Ollie S Arnold Palmer Inv 3rd round only

Playing the stat lines here as both guys have had solid years so far. Hahn is hitting 71% of the fairways and 64% greens in regulation. Ollie is hitting 32% of the fairways and 53% of the greens in regulation. Taking a shot here with the guy just playing better golf this week and comes in a bit hotter than the other player.

Good luck guys