1. A course where everyone misses the fairway, and unless you are very unlucky you should have no problem with that. Adam Scott won last year hitting 41% of fairways. JB Holmes in 2019 hitting 57%, and Bubba and DJ the years prior, hitting 51%. IN RIVIERA DISTANCE MATTERS WAY MORE THAN ACCURACY.
2. Greens are small. And this year, according to interviews from the players, greens and fairways are especially fast and firm. THIS MEANS TWO THINGS: HITTING FAIRWAYS AND GIR WILL BE HARDER THAN USUAL. Now, this gives an advantage to shorter irons , which obviously bounce and roll less (adv. longer distance from the tee). And obviously this means that being good around the green will matter more.
3. With small greens, being accurate with your irons is key. But you also need brains and course planning. Smart golf will help, as you need to set up good angles for your 2nd shots, to minimize the risk of missing the green, and more importantly facing an awful ATG shot.
Ok, all fine, I know most of you don´t even think about what I mentioned above when you pick your golfers (BUT YOU SHOULD). Now... on to the golfers I like as compared to the line offered on them:
A. BRYSON. 16-1 If he is on, he is the only one that can match DJ in a good day, because he is the only golfer that has an advantage OTT vs DJ. Yes, DJ is smoother with his irons and wedges, but Bryson´s distance, and him being a better putter than DJ even it out. We only need that driver to be somewhat controlled and not all over the place. There is not much pressure on him this week, and I think he will take this. He finished top 10 last year, and back then he was Bryson, not BRYSON. He hits 30 yards+ nowadays from the tee.
B. CAMERON DAVIS. 100-1. For a bomber who in my models and numbers for this course ranks 3rd behind Bryson and DJ, considering his last 12 rounds, 100-1 is INSANE. He comes from a 12th place at a course that did not suit him at all. The around the green game and his Putter were red hot last week. Hopefully it stays that way.
C. Bubba Watson. Another bomber who lately had been playing his irons especially well. His short game is not good, but apparently it has never mattered in the kikuyu grass that surrounds these greens. If you are offered 50-1 on a guy who has won 3 of the last 7 tourneys here, you would have to be an idiot not to take it.
Lets cross fingers and hopefully the three are in the top of the leaderboard by Sunday.
**If profitting and patience is not your thing and you only want a guy whom you feel you have a sweat on, bet DJ. He is playing at an all time great level.
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