PGA Tour Weekly Betting

I have been in and out of this site for a few years now, and I have been betting various ways for golf for over 10 years. I decided to really focus on H2H matches and give every tournament a try this year. I started keeping track when this new season began a few weeks ago. I would like to try to build a POSITIVE community of people that can discuss golf. I plan to post all of my tournament plays as well as any round by round matches on here. Feel free to follow, ignore, or discuss. Over the last year I have done pretty well. I am not a big time better, I look to make enough money to pay for my hobbies like golf and poker and occasionally buy a few nice boxes of cigars. I have managed to do all of those so I figured that I would share my picks for anyone that is interested. Don't bitch about a losing week, don't give me the "this guy is a fake", or any of that bullshit. You are all adults that can make an educated decision if you want to tail or not. I will post my record so far this year, I know it doesn't mean anything since I didn't post them earlier, it is just if you are curious. If you want to be apart of helping each other out, or just talking golf, I would love to hear from you. I will post my plays next week with The Shriners Hospital for Children Open.

Season To Date:
Tour Championship (34-26-2) +5.9 units
Safeway Open (22-14-3) +5.55 units
Corales Puntacana (22-14-3) +7.29 units

Mo Money

Sanderson Farms was another good tournament for me. Again I will start posting all my picks this week with the Shriners Hospital Open. This past weekend I went 18-10-1 +6.3 units. This brings my past 4 tournament record up to 96-64-8 +25 units. While I don't expect to keep hitting at that high of a percentage, any profitable week will be good for me. I will release my picks Wednesday early evening, sorry I can't get them out any sooner, real life stuff always gets in the way. Once I get my picks posted I look forward to any discussion on them. 

Mo Money

Look forward to seeing your picks

Does that record for the Sanderson Farms mean that you had 29 bets?

Yes. I have been using a philosophy similar to what Greg Peterson uses with his MLB and NCAA BB betting. If you have never listened to him or his pod you should, the amount of information in that guy's brain is CRAZY. I bet a high volume of games because if you trust your system why shouldn't you bet them all. I was tired of trying to narrow down my plays and then I would have more winners in match ups that I didn't select than I did in the ones I actually played. I tracked this for some time and found that my overall record would have been better if I just bet all of the match up that my system told me to play. The downside of this is that you need a large bank roll in order to play this way. I tailed Greg Peterson in all of his MLB plays this year betting this way and I made some decent money. He bets EVERY side AND EVERY total in EVERY game for both MLB and NCAA BB, it is crazy! 

Shriners Hospital for Children's Open Picks: All lines and match up are from SportsBettingAG

Full Tournament Head to Head Picks:

Niemann (-134) over Z. Johnson

Hadwin (-130) over Cink

List (-120) over Poston

Varner (-128) over Wise

Morikawa (-130) over English

Casey (117) over Fowler

1st Round Head to Head Matches:

Palmer (-125) over Howell

Ancer (-140) over Sabbatini

Munoz (-105) over Z. Johnson

Redman (-135) over Higgs

Cantlay (-130) over Fowler

Matsuyama (-135) over Day

Streelman (-115) over An

Bello (-125) over Hoag

Reavie (-125) over Mitchell

Hoffman (-130) over Rodgers

Kuchar (-125) over Poston

Grillo (-128) over Higgs

Scheffler (-130) over Day

Redman (-102) over S.W. Kim

Palmer (-140) over Ventura

Norlander (113) over An

Davis (-105) over Na

Matsuyama (-130) over English

Ancer (102) over Zalatoris

I will update day 1 record and give out some round 2 picks tomorrow. Best of luck to all that follow.

Mo Money

Sorry guys some of those picks were out of order, here are the correct order of picks:

Full Tournament Head to Head:

Grillo (-130) over Higgs

Hadwin (-130) over Cink

Niemann (-124) over Johnson

List (-120) over Poston

Scheffler (-105) over Wolff

Varner (-128) over Wise

Scheffler (-130) over Day

Redman (-102) over S.W. Kim

Palmer (-140) over Ventura

Norlander (113) over An

C. Davis (-105) over Na

Matsuyama (-130) over English

1st Round Matchups:

Palmer (-130) over Howell

Ancer (-135) over Sabbatini

Munoz (-105) over Johnson

Bello (-125) over Hoag

Redman (-135) over Higgs

Cantlay (-130) over Fowler

Matsuyama (-135) over Day

Streelman (-115) over An

Reavie (-125) over Mitchell

Hoffman (-130) over Rodgers

Good luck to all!

What a great day 1! The picks ended up going 6-2-2 +3.6 units. I will be taking a look at the match ups for tomorrow as soon as they come out. I will most likely post any plays early tomorrow morning. I hope some of you tailed today and were able to see a nice little profit!

Mo Money

Nice work. Looking forward to your round 2 picks. 

you have any opinion on outright picks? Who would you back after Round 1?

I don’t do outright picks, sorry I suck at those. I have found a niche with head 2 head picks. 

MoMoney

Round 2 Picks: There were a few that I could have gotten better lines on if I would have bet them last night. I don't have a bunch but here is what I have:

Dufner (-125) over Tway 

Palmer (-118) over Howell

Redman (-133) over Higgs (lost this one yesterday but going back to it today)

Hoffman (-135) over Rodgers

Landry (-105) over Chappell (this one wasn't on my radar but based on play yesterday seems like good value)

That's all I have for today. Best of luck to everyone that tails. Let's have another profitable day. 

Mo. Money

I liked what I saw with Landry over Chappell and it worked out well. The others had already teed off. Keep ‘em coming. 

I will update record later. Here are picks for Round 3 Match Ups:

Jones over Lewis
Schenk over Hossler
Burns over Sabbatini
Ancer over Norlander
Varner over Frittelli
Straka over Garnett
Garcia over Cink
Hahn over Lashley

Best of luck today!
Mo Money

Updated Record:

Round 1: 6-2-2 (+3.6 units)

Round 2: 1-2-2 (-1.43 units)

Round 3: 4-3-1 (+.35 units)

Full Tourney: 5-4-1 (+.81 units)

TOTAL: 16-11-6 (+3.33 units)

3 of those pushes were from a guy getting a birdie on the final hole to cost us the win. Without out those 3 final hole birdies we would be up 6.33 units. Oh well those all balance out in the long run.................don't they? 

Round 4 picks to come in the morning. 

Mo Money

No round 4 picks. The only one I was looking into (Wolff over Clark) jumped from -140 to -180. I should have grabbed it last night before I even did research as I know Wolff is a far better player than Wyndham Clark!!! Oh well no plays for today, but still 2 full tournament plays pending. I will give full update later tonight. 

As always, best of luck in any plays you do have. 

Mo Money

I know that line shot up. I was looking at it at the end of the Bama game and it was -150 when I started looking at it. Then by the time I placed my bet it was -165. I was like jeeeez louise. GL either way. Let's hope Wuffie goes low again or Clark shits his pants. GL on whatever else you wager on.

Final numbers from the Children's Hospital

Full Tourney: 7-4-1 (+2.80 units)

1st Rd: 6-2-2 (+3.6 units)

2nd Rd: 1-2-2 (-1.43 units)

3rd Rd: 4-3-1 (+.34 units)

TOTAL: 18-11-6 (+5.31 units)

That is 5 tournaments in a row that I have had at least 5+ units won! I don't think there will be any picks next week as the CJ Cup is typically played in Asia but they have switched courses this year. I will have to see if I can find the statistics for this course that I typically use. I will also not have the typical course history that is apart of my formula. I would rather not have any plays than to force plays just to have some action. 

Let me know if any of you were able to make a few bucks with the picks this week, love to hear when we can get a community win!

Mo Money

Who's everyone fancying this week over at Shadows Creek?! I work over at golf-crunch.com as an analyst. We do 5 selections a week, 1 point on each bet. We are +12.95 points this season 5 events in. 

Going this week for 

Collin Morikawa Top 10 @9/4

Harry Higgs Top 20 @13/2

Xander Schauffelle Top 5 @ 3/1

Sergio Garcia Top 10 @9/2

Cameron Smith Top 20 @11/4 

I follow these guys on ActionNetwork.  This guy I followed for all sports gambling on twitter started this sports bettors app.  They always have articles on betting golf.  VERY insightful!  I would suggest taking a look at it.  It’s free unless you want the pro part.  Their articles they write on gold about 2-3 times a week are amazing.  I don’t follow that closely but they got me betting just cause they are so knowledgeable.  I won a little last week having Ancer for w/top5/top10

Okay guys back at it again this week with picks. This is not a tournament that I would typically play. I don't tend to like small field, no cut events and this tournament has never been at this course. I like to take into account course history and I really analyze which key stats are need for each course played. I have done some research to try and analyze what it will take to win on this course based on when the Hero World Challenge was played here. I think I have a decent model set up for this tournament but all of my bets this week will be for .5 units. Give me your thoughts and opinions on the picks. We are going to have another positive week this week!

Full Tournament: 

English (-130) over Watson

Palmer (-140) over Spieth

Munoz (+109) over Horschel

Hovland (-130) over Niemann

Berger (-125) over Im

Scott (-118) over Fleetwood

Harman (-110) over Todd

Berger (-112) over English

1st Round

Finau (-145) over Duncan

Na (-135) over Taylor

Niemann (-118) over Todd

Thomas (-130) over Reed

Scott (-105) over Day

As always best of luck to everyone, let make some $

Mo Money

I'm gonna dabble with some golf action this year. I found one incorrect line of all the lines I looked at for this event. Rory McIlroy avgs 52% top 10's on the PGA since 2012, btw that is incredible. With the field limited this week he is statistically likely to improve that stat. Also, Dustin and DeChamcrushtheball are out of the field and one of them if not both would have occupied a top 10 spot. Rory's top 10 bet is +120 meaning implied odds of 45.5%. This bet is in the bonus statistically at inception. Betting him to win is in the bonus as well by 3%, but I don't go for those bets, I need some breathing room.  They have Xander's odds so skewed from his recent good play I wouldn't even consider betting him unless you just love the hot hand. I'm also placing a smaller bet on Matsuyama for a top 20 as he is 52% on top 20 finishes on the PGA and his payout implied odds are at 52% and this is a limited field so I feel in the bonus here as well. Every thing else looked bad. I'm not so keen on H2H bets unless I see something real tasty. I'd also prefer betting rd 3 and 4 vs earlier as some players will play their hand and possibly have a history of checking out mentally. I'm interested in tracking MoMoney and see how he does. My only concern is the spread b/w the H2H being too large to overcome. I need to pay attention to it more. From a topical viewpoint I'd almost take the opposite approach and bet less H2H's due to the spreads nibbling at your toes all the time.  For instance, I feel I am actually the house on this Rory bet and I am collecting the juice statistically.  Good luck all.

Day 1 Update:

Round 1: 1-2-1 (-.87 units)

Full Tournament Update: Leading in 5 of the 8 match ups

English vs Watson (4 shot lead)
Palmer vs Spieth (1 shot lead)
Munoz vs Horschel (8 shot lead)
Niemann vs Hovland (1 shot down)
Berger vs Im (1 shot lead)
Hatton vs Reed (5 shot lead)
Harman vs Todd (3 shot lead)
Berger vs English (3 shots down)

Round 2 Plays: None

@MoMoney2

 ZoZo Results:

Full Tournament Plays: 5-3 (+.67 units)

Round 1: 1-2-1 (-.87 units)

Total: 6-5-1 (-.2 units)

I didn't have many bets last week. I got busy and didn't have the time needed to really look at plays for each round. I have a few plays for this week's Bermuda that I will post last on today. Last 7 weeks of betting still up +34.5 units, I will take that! 

MoMoney

Bermuda Championship Picks:

Full Tournament:

Suh (-105) over Willett

Schenk (-105) over Stenson

Hadley (-105) over Stuard

Rodgers (-105) over Lewis

Redman (117) over Todd

Varner (109) over Todd

No 1st Round plays, hopefully we can get some round 2 plays. 

Best of luck to any that follow or tail.

MoMoney