We continue the Florida swing this coming week with the players championship at TPC Sawgrass. This course reminds me a lot of pga National which we just saw a couple weeks ago. This is a par 72 measuring out at a modest 7,275 yards with yet again a ton of water hazards and bunkering serving as the primary defenses along with some pretty thick rough.
These fairways are pretty narrow as well ranking 12th/44 courses on tour in that regard. This along with the fact that it’s not a super long course will result in a lot of guys keeping driver in the bag to avoid disaster off the tee. This will lead me to look for guys that are accurate off the tee, but also have shown success on these positional, less than driver courses.
Approach game per usual will be the biggest predictor of success at this course. This is the 5th hardest course on tour to gain strokes approaching the green. This is a product of the thick rough around here, small greens, coastal winds, and the plentiful water hazards that defend the greens. 18 of the last 20 winners at Sawgrass were ranked in the top 35 for strokes gained on approach in the year leading up to this event. A stat that really highlights the importance of being in form on approach to win this event. The majority of approaches will come from the 100-150 yard range but also a fair share of long irons from 200+ yards. I wouldn’t personally waste time betting anybody that’s been struggling with the irons of late.
This is also a very difficult course to gain strokes around the green. With the small green complexes that are very fast and do feature undulations it can make scrambling a little tricky. Greens will be missed so having a quality short game is something I’d like to see for players I’m backing. This is another week I won’t look too much into putting, but these are poa trivialis surfaces so I’ll take a look at guys that have had success on these surfaces along with fast greens.
I think there are some great comp courses to look at one of which I already mentioned in pga National, but also harbour town and sedgefield. All positional courses that often require you to take less club off the tee and spike on approach. The ideal player here has had some success on these courses, is accurate off the tee, is an in form overall approach player, and has an adequate around the green game. Sand save% and par 5 scoring are some ancillary stats I’ll be taking a look at as well. Will post in here once i’ve taken a stance on some guys
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
We continue the Florida swing this coming week with the players championship at TPC Sawgrass. This course reminds me a lot of pga National which we just saw a couple weeks ago. This is a par 72 measuring out at a modest 7,275 yards with yet again a ton of water hazards and bunkering serving as the primary defenses along with some pretty thick rough.
These fairways are pretty narrow as well ranking 12th/44 courses on tour in that regard. This along with the fact that it’s not a super long course will result in a lot of guys keeping driver in the bag to avoid disaster off the tee. This will lead me to look for guys that are accurate off the tee, but also have shown success on these positional, less than driver courses.
Approach game per usual will be the biggest predictor of success at this course. This is the 5th hardest course on tour to gain strokes approaching the green. This is a product of the thick rough around here, small greens, coastal winds, and the plentiful water hazards that defend the greens. 18 of the last 20 winners at Sawgrass were ranked in the top 35 for strokes gained on approach in the year leading up to this event. A stat that really highlights the importance of being in form on approach to win this event. The majority of approaches will come from the 100-150 yard range but also a fair share of long irons from 200+ yards. I wouldn’t personally waste time betting anybody that’s been struggling with the irons of late.
This is also a very difficult course to gain strokes around the green. With the small green complexes that are very fast and do feature undulations it can make scrambling a little tricky. Greens will be missed so having a quality short game is something I’d like to see for players I’m backing. This is another week I won’t look too much into putting, but these are poa trivialis surfaces so I’ll take a look at guys that have had success on these surfaces along with fast greens.
I think there are some great comp courses to look at one of which I already mentioned in pga National, but also harbour town and sedgefield. All positional courses that often require you to take less club off the tee and spike on approach. The ideal player here has had some success on these courses, is accurate off the tee, is an in form overall approach player, and has an adequate around the green game. Sand save% and par 5 scoring are some ancillary stats I’ll be taking a look at as well. Will post in here once i’ve taken a stance on some guys
Justin Thomas (22-1) The iron play from JT appears to be back, ranking 1st in this field on approach in the last 36 rounds. The concern with him is getting a little wild with the driver, but I like that it is a little negated here with all the clubbing down off the tee. Currently top 10 at api and 3 top 10s in his last 4 starts, I think he’s close. Don’t think this numbers going to get any better so I’ll go ahead and bite
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Justin Thomas (22-1) The iron play from JT appears to be back, ranking 1st in this field on approach in the last 36 rounds. The concern with him is getting a little wild with the driver, but I like that it is a little negated here with all the clubbing down off the tee. Currently top 10 at api and 3 top 10s in his last 4 starts, I think he’s close. Don’t think this numbers going to get any better so I’ll go ahead and bite
Brian Harman (100-1) Harman has been striking the ball pretty well. Looking at some of his recent performances here he’s had some big upside showings with the putter on these surfaces. Trust him to keep it out of the thick rough/water off the tee. Just thought this was a good number to take a sprinkle on him on a course where he’s had 3 top 8’s in his last 6 starts.
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Brian Harman (100-1) Harman has been striking the ball pretty well. Looking at some of his recent performances here he’s had some big upside showings with the putter on these surfaces. Trust him to keep it out of the thick rough/water off the tee. Just thought this was a good number to take a sprinkle on him on a course where he’s had 3 top 8’s in his last 6 starts.
Nick Taylor (120-1) This number is too big for a guy that actually wins golf tournaments and is absolutely flushing his irons. He’s typically a guy that gets it done on the greens, but he actually ranks 4th for me in this field in recent approach play. Do I think he’s going to win twice in his last 7 starts? Not sure but they suckered me in at these odds.
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Nick Taylor (120-1) This number is too big for a guy that actually wins golf tournaments and is absolutely flushing his irons. He’s typically a guy that gets it done on the greens, but he actually ranks 4th for me in this field in recent approach play. Do I think he’s going to win twice in his last 7 starts? Not sure but they suckered me in at these odds.
Corey Conners (55-1) Saw some encouraging stuff from Conners this week, and I really like the way his game plays here. He’s one of the most accurate guys on tour off the tee on a course that has real consequences for missing fairways and has always been one of the better iron players. 2 things that are very important to separate here. There’s a reason he has 2 top 15s in his last 4 starts at sawgrass
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Corey Conners (55-1) Saw some encouraging stuff from Conners this week, and I really like the way his game plays here. He’s one of the most accurate guys on tour off the tee on a course that has real consequences for missing fairways and has always been one of the better iron players. 2 things that are very important to separate here. There’s a reason he has 2 top 15s in his last 4 starts at sawgrass
Adding Fleetwood on the outright card, just going to trust the data here like i should have with henley last week. I know he doesn't win on the pga tour but the guy is hitting the irons as well as he ever has right now and is a great fit at this golf course. One of the most accurate off the tee on tour, is 11th in approach play last 36 rounds, and has 2 prior top 10s at sawgrass. Rated 3rd in my model for this week. Just really like the way his game is trending right now and when he wins its going to be a course like this IMO that really punishes guys for missing fairways.
There is a few other guys i really like here but will play them in the positional market instead. That should wrap up the outright card, will sprinkle in positionals throughout the week.
Outrights:
Justin Thomas (22-1)
Tommy Fleetwood (35-1)
Corey Conners (55-1)
Brian Harman (100-1)
Nick Taylor (120-1)
Top 10 (ties included):
Tommy Fleetwood (+300)
Shane Lowry (+330)
Top 20 (ties included):
Corey Conners (+210)
Aaron Rai (+275)
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Adding Fleetwood on the outright card, just going to trust the data here like i should have with henley last week. I know he doesn't win on the pga tour but the guy is hitting the irons as well as he ever has right now and is a great fit at this golf course. One of the most accurate off the tee on tour, is 11th in approach play last 36 rounds, and has 2 prior top 10s at sawgrass. Rated 3rd in my model for this week. Just really like the way his game is trending right now and when he wins its going to be a course like this IMO that really punishes guys for missing fairways.
There is a few other guys i really like here but will play them in the positional market instead. That should wrap up the outright card, will sprinkle in positionals throughout the week.
Yea I like JT to make a run at it this week too. I took him in my one-and-done contest! Will have some of him in DraftKings too.
Like it man, I really think the winning upside is there right now with him. I just hope he takes his medicine off the tee and leaves driver in the bag often. If he’s playing out of the fairways I would expect him to be there. Gl buddy
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Quote Originally Posted by bense197969:
Yea I like JT to make a run at it this week too. I took him in my one-and-done contest! Will have some of him in DraftKings too.
Like it man, I really think the winning upside is there right now with him. I just hope he takes his medicine off the tee and leaves driver in the bag often. If he’s playing out of the fairways I would expect him to be there. Gl buddy
Thanks for fantastic write-up. LIV: Cam Smith PGA: Cantlay, Straka, Conners, N Hojgaard, Norlander (longshot)
The cantlay number is really good, he’s being slept on this week after disappointing every one last week. I almost got there. Norlander has been flushing the irons. Can’t argue against any of these selections.
GL peace
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Quote Originally Posted by PeAceMaKer7690:
Thanks for fantastic write-up. LIV: Cam Smith PGA: Cantlay, Straka, Conners, N Hojgaard, Norlander (longshot)
The cantlay number is really good, he’s being slept on this week after disappointing every one last week. I almost got there. Norlander has been flushing the irons. Can’t argue against any of these selections.
Rolls uses other peoples info then comes in here, hits a couple a year then has excuses…it’s not hard to steal other people’s info… if you want a first round leader tomorrow take someone from the morning, probably from the Thomas Aberg matsuama group.
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Rolls uses other peoples info then comes in here, hits a couple a year then has excuses…it’s not hard to steal other people’s info… if you want a first round leader tomorrow take someone from the morning, probably from the Thomas Aberg matsuama group.
I never claimed to be going off the dome on everything in my write ups. Obviously i do research and i take data that i find and put it in my write ups to help others understand the course better, its fun for me. Im not claiming to be some golf course wizard that knows everything about every setup. I have learned alot about these courses over the years, but i still look at course data that may be relevant because i genuinely enjoy it and it allows me to understand the course better. If you want to call it stealing be my guest, i guess every handicapper that does write ups with relevant data that they find is stealing information
Anyways, good day to you sir. Lets enjoy the golf shall we?
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@TheVigPodcast
@Indydog
Thanks friends, GL this week
@djmurphr
@Constantloser
I never claimed to be going off the dome on everything in my write ups. Obviously i do research and i take data that i find and put it in my write ups to help others understand the course better, its fun for me. Im not claiming to be some golf course wizard that knows everything about every setup. I have learned alot about these courses over the years, but i still look at course data that may be relevant because i genuinely enjoy it and it allows me to understand the course better. If you want to call it stealing be my guest, i guess every handicapper that does write ups with relevant data that they find is stealing information
Anyways, good day to you sir. Lets enjoy the golf shall we?
Yep I think it was just a bad bet at 22-1. The iron numbers reeled me in but anytime it’s water heavy I think it’s best just to avoid him lol. I think the course is relatively soft too which forces more drivers off the tee.
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Quote Originally Posted by bense197969:
Sheesh...when JT goes bad, he goes sooooo bad!
Yep I think it was just a bad bet at 22-1. The iron numbers reeled me in but anytime it’s water heavy I think it’s best just to avoid him lol. I think the course is relatively soft too which forces more drivers off the tee.
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