Matsuyama ov Spieth
Spieth has said his putting has been struggling, and the numbers back it up. In the 2018 season, Spieth is 193rd in putting. Matsuyama is 31st. Not sure when Spieth will get his putting back, but this is a course that everyone will be able to drive, and hit greens, but putting ends up being huge. Matsuyama has been great at this tournament finishing 1st the last 2 years, 2nd and 4th. Spieth has been good finishing 7th and 9th both times he’s played here, but he only finished 9th at the Tournament of Champions, and 18th at the Sony Open. Matsuyama was a couple shots better than Spieth at the tournament of champions, and we don’t get too many good opportunities to bet against Spieth, but if his putting isn’t good this week, Matsuyama can gain several strokes on him over the course of the tourney.
Ryan Moore ov Bubba Watson
Not a lot of analysis here. I’m just fading Bubba every chance I get. Bubba missed the cut at the Career Builder, he missed the cut here last year, Ryan Moore wasn’t great here last year, but he did make the cut. Just betting against Bubba.
Chesson Hadley ov Brandt Snedeker
My quest to make back the money from the RSM Classic Brandt Snedeker vs Scott Brown debacle continues. Last week we won money from Gary Woodland ov Brandt Snedeker…this week I’m taking Chesson Hadley over him at even money. In January, Hadley has been better than Snedeker in both tourney’s they’ve played in. Finished 5 shots ahead of him at the CareerBuilder, and 3 shots ahead of him at the Farmers. This is one of those situations where tournament history doesn’t tell the story. Hadley has finished 60th, and a missed cut in his only 2 appearances at this tournament in 2016, and 2015, but his form coming into those tournaments are identical to how he finished at this tournament. Snedekder good tournament history, but after his injury, and his last few tournaments…you can throw his recent finishes here out the window.
Lucas Glover ov Luke List
By the way…Lucas Glover has the cheesiest smile ever on his pga tour profile page…it’s laugh out loud funny. Let’s start examining this bet. First off, Luke List has never made the cut here. Ever. So Glover has finished ahead of List every time they’ve played here together. Glover not great here, but only 2 missed cuts in 10 tournaments here. Let’s look at recent form, and the only reason this matchup is on the board is because Luke List finished 12th last week, and Glover finished 67th. However, in the career builder Glover finished 11 shots better than him, and the fact is Glover is just a better golfer than List. So everyone is going to look at Luke List’s 12th place finish last week. Take out the reach around season…In 2017 Luke List had 4 top 20 finishes. He followed those up with a 37th, 41st and 2 missed cuts. In 2016 he did the same shit…had 3 top 15 finishes followed all of them up with 3 missed cuts. I don’t think Luke List’s finish last week is any indication of what he’ll do this week, so I’m taking Glover in this matchup.
Brian Stuard ov Bryson Dechambeau
Not sure why Stuard is plus money in this matchup, but I’ll take it!!! I’ve never been a Dechambeau fan, and nothing has changed my mind in this matchup. Missed the cut bad at the Farmers, was terrible at the Tournament of Champions, and at the same time this year, he was awful missing the cut 5 tournaments in a row in January and February. He’s never played here before, meanwhile Stuard has played here 4 times, made the cut every time, and finished 16th here last year and 10th the time before. The last time Stuard played in he missed the cut, but that was the weird CareerBuilder…he was 4th at the Sony Open before that. He was terrible to finish the 2017 season, but he’s looked much better recently…I can’t believe he’s the underdog here.
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