Win Odds (Farmers)

So who do you guys like to win this thing?  Still supposed to be 15-25mph winds in the morning.  But the rain wont be there.  Big advantage to those that still have to finish up.  Currently see Snedeker still listed as the favorite to win, but he's sitting at -6 in the clubhouse already. 

So they are assuming Walker is going to play the last 8 holes over par...with two Par 5's remaining.  They already cut the distance back on most holes because of the wind (Moved tee's up).  So the 11th & 16th which are traditionally long tough Par 3's aren't playing as long as they normally do.  I see the winner at -8 or better, and I'd think there's only 2-3 guys that can get that number.

Walker (+190), Choi (+640) or Streelman (+1000)


*Jacobson & Holmes both have difficult up and downs for Par when play resumes.  They fail to convert, I don't see either hitting -7 or 8

I was thinking the same and have a 500 open par to fill!! I am thinking Its Sned or Walker to win? I don't think Choi has the distance? Be curious to find out if par 5's playing down wind?? Last year I bet against Walker a couple times, he tends to choke??

I don't think -6 wins it.  So I doub't it's going to be Sned.  Had the tournament finished yesterday in the wind/rain I'd give him a slight chance at -6.  But the wind is supposed to be about the same, but no rain.  Drives may roll out a bit more, may not be as much wind as they anticipate.  Few things could happen. 

Choi is certainly at a disadvantage distance wise (IF the wind is 20-30 like yesterday) but he putts well so he's gonna have a chance.  You saw how he played the first 2 days.  #18 is reachable for Walker, Choi would probably lay up regardless of the wind.  And the other Par 5 is like 600+yds...so it's a 3 shot hole anyway.  If they go -1 or -2 on the Par 5's.  One of them will be in prime position. 

I myself will be playing both into some parlays with UNC tomorrow night and probably 1 other game...but if I were in your position I'd likely wait and try to add live (Assuming your book has it)  ya your value may dip a bit...but if they get through 11-13 unscathed...you should have a good read on potential winner.

Great point KBrick! I do have live betting. Oddly enough the last time I used it was when Gomez drilled his drive down the middle and Snedeker was in the bunker on the second playoff hole! Gomez was still +110 despite being in the short grass! Didn't think about live betting! I'll definitely keep you in the loop on this one! Thanks bud!!

I always utilize live if I have it.  And it's a big advantage in your scenario.  As you can see what the wind is like etc...  If it's howling, the winner wont be Choi as he was barely hitting 220yds with his driver into the wind yesterday (Granted he could still knock some putts down)

They have a slight disadvantage in that they have to play a relatively longer Par 3 right out the blocks, but if they get through that hole...the live wagering should prove useful

I've got Jimmy at 34-1 & Sned 16-1 I think Jimmy wins this he's by far the best player out there.

Im not sure I'd go that far, but I understand the statement when you're sitting on a 34-1 ticket. 

If he hits the ball in the fairway the remaining 8 holes then he has a big edge.  But the wind is going to determine this outcome.  If it's relatively low 10-15mph Choi will still be in with a chance.  If it's like it was yesterday it's likely Streelman or Walker. (Obviously Streelman needs to hit the 18ft birdie look he has when play is restarted)

If the wind is low, Walker has great shot to birdie the two Par 5's and run away and hide.  That last group (Choi & Walker) got incredibly lucky with the weather delay and it likely leads to one of them winning this thing.

Trying to go back to back had Duffy last week at 40-1 that had meWalker is clutch when he has the lead it's funny how the made DJ the fav at to 2.5-1 after Fridays rd that guy is the biggest Choke ever

Any word when they plan on resuming 

11am EST I believe. 

Now I'm seeing NOON EST

If you're sure Sneds and his -6 score won't hold up, but you can't decide between Choi and Walker, just take Field -200 vs. Snedeker.  I know people don't like laying juice around here, but it seems logical.

Logical if you can't find angles for the specific players and just want a blanket result.  Already laid out my reasons for Walker or Choi.  And potentially Streelman.  So I have no need to swallow -200

Any word on weather? My book has live Sned +150 and walker +175 . Who should I pull the trigger on?

They haven't shown any live shots yet.  Still reading 20-30mph winds for most of the day in SanDiego.  That's likely wind gusts up too...but I imagine its going to be 15-20 steady like yesterday. 

I still wouldn't play Snedeker.  Can't justify wagering on someone who's already finished their round and then simply hoping guys tied or ahead of him crap their pants.

FYI play was just pushed back to 1 EST. 20-25 mph winds with gusts up to 30 mph is what I see online

There's only 4 guys in my mind that can win this with 2 outsides who would need to get hot while the leaders go cold.



1) Walker - Hits the ball straight, from San Antonio should know how to play in the wind.  1 stroke lead with 2 scoreable Par 5's with his distance.

2) Choi - Lack of power could do him in unless he gets some down wind drives.  Could still birdie #18 late so he's in a decent spot if he can throw in some Pars to resume his 4th round.

3) Streelman - Has a 19ft birdie putt coming out of the break and likely the 18th as his next potential birdie hole.  So he obviously needs to hit this putt coming out of the break.  Otherwise he may get stuck on -6 at best.

4) Snedeker - Already in the clubhouse isn't a great angle IMO, especially when you're needing 4-5 guys essentially NOT to play well.


The outsiders...

5) Jacobson - Only 2 back and still has both par 5's remaining.  This may be the sleeper.  That being said, he has to get up and down on #12 from around 40yds out.  Can't bogey here out of the break or he like Streelman may get stuck on -6 at best.

6) Holmes - Ironically my pick in my own fantasy golf I do with my friends.  But he like Jacobson has around 30yds on #14 and needs to get up and down to avoid the bogey and give back the birdie he just got on #13.  Still will have #18 to play, and he can get home in 2 with a big drive (Assuming it's down wind)  Just can't afford to bogey #14 out of the break.

And the longer this continues to get pushed back simply because of wind the less likely Snedeker will be.  As winds are supposed to subside later in the day. 

It's fitN to be a wild ride like last week

Does play start Tuesday or Wednesday in the desert

I don't have Snedeker in any of my plays.  But I'd be pissed at the decision to continue to push back the resumption of play just cause of the wind.  He had to play his entire round in it yesterday, and these last few groups are seemingly gonna get to play at the end of this wind storm where gusts might die down.

Was supposed to resume at 8am PST, now back to 10am PST...who knows when it actually goes.

Thx for the updates Brick

Hoping the golf chan has covager

1pm eastern

Golf channel saying winds should still be around 20mph when play resumes. Last 5 holes playing into the wind.