Hedging may make sense occasionaly in longshot future bets, but it NEVER makes sense to hedge a parlay. If you parlay games with different start times with the intent on hedging if you win the first few, you are throwing money away
This is 100% true, and you'll get no argument from me on this. I think Vanzack has a neverending thread about the math and philosophy behind this that is must read material.
Like I said, I agree and will bang the drum loudly to not put yourself in a position to even have the option of hedging a parlayed ticket. However that ship has sailed in this case, and he has to deal with his current situation. That's why the "personal value" of these amounts of money to the individual takes over in the decision IMO.
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Quote Originally Posted by Amp:
Hedging may make sense occasionaly in longshot future bets, but it NEVER makes sense to hedge a parlay. If you parlay games with different start times with the intent on hedging if you win the first few, you are throwing money away
This is 100% true, and you'll get no argument from me on this. I think Vanzack has a neverending thread about the math and philosophy behind this that is must read material.
Like I said, I agree and will bang the drum loudly to not put yourself in a position to even have the option of hedging a parlayed ticket. However that ship has sailed in this case, and he has to deal with his current situation. That's why the "personal value" of these amounts of money to the individual takes over in the decision IMO.
If you decided not to go the guaranteed route. My recommendation would be to at least put a little something on McDowell at +310 and root for the winner to come out of that final pairing.
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If you decided not to go the guaranteed route. My recommendation would be to at least put a little something on McDowell at +310 and root for the winner to come out of that final pairing.
If you decided not to go the guaranteed route. My recommendation would be to at least put a little something on McDowell at +310 and root for the winner to come out of that final pairing.
good idea
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Quote Originally Posted by blairaj:
If you decided not to go the guaranteed route. My recommendation would be to at least put a little something on McDowell at +310 and root for the winner to come out of that final pairing.
If you decided not to go the guaranteed route. My recommendation would be to at least put a little something on McDowell at +310 and root for the winner to come out of that final pairing.
That's not guaranteed either....
I would suggest you leave well enough alone!!
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Quote Originally Posted by blairaj:
If you decided not to go the guaranteed route. My recommendation would be to at least put a little something on McDowell at +310 and root for the winner to come out of that final pairing.
nice arguments by AJ and Blair. One is statistical and mathematical and other is more on emotional/philosophical. To me a hedge is to insure a profit and as Blair said it would depend on size of wager involved. Good size profit hedge can at least insure your initial wager and more. I am more familiar with these as other games are decided and one action will determine the outcome like a parlay. Teasers I would probably consider more as a middle if there was only one action to be decided and not a hedge.
In baseball season last fall, a guy had a futures on the St. L. Cards in Sept. when they were like 10 games out of their division. He put a futures on them for over 20K for a small price to win the National League or may been to win the WS. The rest is history. He was recommended to hedge throughout playoffs once Cards got past Phils.
Last Fall someone placed a 100 dollar wager money-line on Iowa St. at plus 8,000 as they were 27 pt. dogs. OKL St. was upset that Thurs. night. Other upsets followed that weekend like USC over OR as 10 pt. dogs and OKL got upset, etc. Now speaking from hindsight, if you had bet a money-line parlay bet, even a small wager would have returned a large sum on these dogs. I would probably hedge.
Even in craps, people hedge. Sometimes long shots happen like three hard sixes in a row or three box-cars in a row or three elevens in a row.
But as AJ points out, there are no guarantees in life except death, sometimes you can let it ride!!!!!!!!!!
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nice arguments by AJ and Blair. One is statistical and mathematical and other is more on emotional/philosophical. To me a hedge is to insure a profit and as Blair said it would depend on size of wager involved. Good size profit hedge can at least insure your initial wager and more. I am more familiar with these as other games are decided and one action will determine the outcome like a parlay. Teasers I would probably consider more as a middle if there was only one action to be decided and not a hedge.
In baseball season last fall, a guy had a futures on the St. L. Cards in Sept. when they were like 10 games out of their division. He put a futures on them for over 20K for a small price to win the National League or may been to win the WS. The rest is history. He was recommended to hedge throughout playoffs once Cards got past Phils.
Last Fall someone placed a 100 dollar wager money-line on Iowa St. at plus 8,000 as they were 27 pt. dogs. OKL St. was upset that Thurs. night. Other upsets followed that weekend like USC over OR as 10 pt. dogs and OKL got upset, etc. Now speaking from hindsight, if you had bet a money-line parlay bet, even a small wager would have returned a large sum on these dogs. I would probably hedge.
Even in craps, people hedge. Sometimes long shots happen like three hard sixes in a row or three box-cars in a row or three elevens in a row.
But as AJ points out, there are no guarantees in life except death, sometimes you can let it ride!!!!!!!!!!
It's good to hear both sides of it. I agree (no really, I do!) with what Blair has already pointed out, it's up to YOU and YOU only to do what you feel most comfortable doing. You've heard from both sides, you've seen the math and statistics. Just do it baby!!
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It's good to hear both sides of it. I agree (no really, I do!) with what Blair has already pointed out, it's up to YOU and YOU only to do what you feel most comfortable doing. You've heard from both sides, you've seen the math and statistics. Just do it baby!!
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