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My point exactly... The books ain't paying that out!!! Everything I have is on GSW in game 7. I like knowing if I'm going down the books are too!!!.
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StackMyLoot | 8 |
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Quote Originally Posted by NoPicks: 2016 Record 0-0 Yes I am now starting to contribute to this site as I feel like the time is ripe and that this is a big play with an 87% chance of winning according to my extensive calculations and believe it or not I've been very profitable this NBA playoffs. I don't care who follows me but I am very confident and I will start posting my plays of the year starting from today but will continue starting next NBA season. Take it how you want but the season is over tomorrow. I've watched both the dubs and cavaliers all season long and I rarely missed a dubs game. However, I made a cavaliers series bet prior to Game 5 given the tremendous value. I felt the cavaliers had a hitter's chance of winning and I went all out on the Cavs on Game 5 expecting them to give a herculean effort which they did particularly against Curry who they've utilized the "Jordan Rules" against putting a body on him wherever he goes. I expect Love to play better at home which he usually does but he won't play great just decent. However, I wouldn't discount Jefferson as the starter for tomorrow given Loves poor performance in the Finals. I also expect Lebron to dominate the paint and the BallsBuster. Lebron will get his points in the paint no doubt but will not be able to hit those open jumpers the dubs were giving him as they will play tighter defense. Also, JR should contribute double digits at home and play his usually great defense. Kyrie is capable of producing 40 point games in any game he plays in but not when warriors defense play lockdown defense on him. He made tough shots and was hitting shots at a extraordinary rate which WONT HAPPEN AGAIN against this underrated warriors defense that WILL NOT be hindered by the absence of Bogut although Bogut is a premier rim protector. What the Dubs give up in defense they make up in offensive efficiency. Tristan Thompson is a extremely consistent player and I expect him to have an above average game. They will also utilize Shumpert and Delly for defense and Frye for three point shooting. Jefferson should get some minutes as well. With all this said, Dubs are just better than the Cavs period. No way they should be dogs in this game. My figures have them as a 8 point favorite. Sounds ridiculously high doesn't it? Considering Cavs play extremely well at home and they're missing Bogut. The reason for the high figure is that when the dubs win, they don't usually win in single digits. Curry had an abnormally off game even with the suffocating D. He will have a better game which he is due for and which is in him. Klay did his part offensively but couldn't take care of Irving. Klay will do a better job the next game guaranteed. Klay is a competitor and a exceptionally good defender and one of the greatest shooters. Barnes had great looks but just couldn't hit his shots. Barnes is usually one of the most consistent and also accurate shooters when he is open. Green is the X factor because if he is hitting his shots, the warriors are unstoppable. Green takes more shots than he should and isn't as great offensively as many of his team mates and offensively can be a detriment to the dubs by taking too many shots but when he is making passes and play great defense. The Dubs are the 73-9 team that they are. Iguodala is clutch and his defense is exceptional. Barbosa is a great player off the bench a impact player both offensively and defensively. Livington makes it tough for Kyrie to make shots because of his length. Also, If cave go small ball Livingston can get his shot whenever he wants and HE MAKES THEM. MO Buckets had an off game BUT HE GETS BUCKETS DONT FORGET. His Mid-Range is deadly. EZELI AND VAREJAO GIVES ENERGY. I don't expect to see Clark,Rush, or McAdoo ANYMORE. This team is better than last year. This team is better than practically every team in NBA history. Please don't be fooled by the last game. Dubs didn't have the energy. Green wasn't playing. but most importantly Cavs WON that game. Kyrie and Lebron did what they do and Dubs didn't stop them. They will stop them now. They will force the other players to score. Mark my words wouldn't write all this for nothing. Dubs ML + Dubs +2 Leaning Over 207.5 Your analysis of this series is interesting, however it is just that "your analysis". I could come up counter points to every one your arguments in the opposite direction. I've been wagering on the NBA for a long time and everything that has happened in this series was predictable.... Right up until game 5 that is. Historically 3-1 is a death sentence for the trailing team. Death comes 90% of the time in that next game. However, be it the hot shooting of the Cav's or the suspension of Green that wasn't to be. Here is what I know though as we speak it you take the Cav's to complete the series upset you would get over 3 to 1, (4-1 in some places) on your money.... That ain't happening!!! The only true question here is does GSW win it in 6 or in 7. Easily Cav's could win tonight, however we did just watch them lose game 4 in a similar spot. In my opinion tonight's game is a toss up either way. There aren't many historical situations like this to evaluate, and by going off of this guy's logic GSW should have swept Cav''s. GSW is the better team but will they play like it tonight or are they already making plans for game 7??? If you're ahead like me and got it to spend smart money is on GSW -450 SERIES ML!!!
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NoPicks | 28 |
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replied to
the result of this first half being tied will force the dubs backer's hands into
in NBA Betting
Oops!!! Should have listened... Got played!!!
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Achilles1629 | 6 |
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replied to
the result of this first half being tied will force the dubs backer's hands into
in NBA Betting
This series is over!!!! Cav's don't have enough bullets!!! 2nd half is the easiest pick for GSW!!! Take my word for it, take it with a grain of salt... We will revisit this conversation in an hour or so though....
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Achilles1629 | 6 |
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No Green huh??? While I understand the decision, I don't agree with it. This is all because they should have suspended Green in OKC series and they didn't. "The King" needs to really be ashamed of himself though. Win by any means necessary huh??? He blew this thing up to get Green suspended. He knew while Green did swing his arm no contact was made. Why would anyone want to win like this??? Is bron that desperate??? Towards the end of game 4 Lebron really started to become unglued... He lost his composure and the incident with him and Green then him and Curry was all instigated by him!!! Why would the NBA reward him for his terrible, sore loser, behavior he displayed on Friday night???
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Covers | 16 |
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DRAYMOND GREEN SUPENDED!!! Should have seen that one coming... My overzealous a$$ laid the 8pts... =!!!! NOOOOO!!!!
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4fd1062 | 4 |
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BOOK IT!!! I garuntee Cav's will be bringing it back to Cleveland!!! I'm sure they have a lot of basketballs, uniforms, sneakers, etc that they they'll be bringing back from Oakland. End of the season... I'm sure they also have stuff to get out of there lockers... Oh yeah also exit interviews, etc. There will be no game 6!!! Only real question is how embarrassing this game 5 will get. I think GSW -20 is probably too low!!!
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4fd1062 | 1 |
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In the history of the NBA Finals 32 teams have gone down 3 games to 1... How many of those teams came back to win the series... NONE!!! 0 FOR 32!!! I don't think Vegas can make a line high enough for this game on Monday. If it weren't for the fact GSW wanted to win this thing in front of their fans @ Oracle, instead of @ the Q like last year, this series would be over already. Cleveland backers please don't waste any more of your money. This thing is OVER in 5!!! Gentleman's sweep as predicted. I tried to tell ya!!!
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CHANGCHANG | 6 |
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Quote Originally Posted by composite: I love the Cavs in Game 3. GS lost G3 @ Houston. GS lost G3 @ Portland. GS lost G3 @ OKC. Notice a pattern? Cleveland has played 10X better at home than the road during these playoffs. GS has done the exact opposite. I don't see why that trend should change. It's your to do with as you please, however, again things like "trends" are tools and can be helpful in ultimately getting on the right side of a game. It's just that though, a tool. To place your hard earned on a side soley based on what some team did a week, a month, or a year ago is crazy to me!!! Based off of what we've witnessed so far nothing and I mean nothing in this series would lead any logical person to believe Cleveland can win a game let alone the series. I personally picked the series in 5, with Cleveland getting game 2 or 3, but even I am up off that now. Every day this thing just keeps getting worse and worse for Cleveland. It's one thing to not know, but by now it is clear GS is on a much higher level than Cleveland. How do you live with yourself after you lose, when you were fully aware going in that you're picking the inferior side??? Also I would pass all day before I would put my chips up solely based on the theory "The sun has to shine on a dog's backside someday"!!! |
4fd1062 | 42 |
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So to answer my own "rhetorical" question There is no logical reason to pick the Cav's!!! Regardless the talent discrepancy between these two teams and despite what we've seen with our own two eyes these games between these 2 teams, the choice to pick the Cav's is soley being based on theoretical trends, and logic similar to believing you can't flip a coin 4 times and have it land on heads all 4??? Wow!!! Blows my mind!!! I don't care how much value there is in picking the wrong side... IT'S THE WRONG SIDE!!! Have fun giving your away!!!
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4fd1062 | 42 |
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Let me make sure I have this straight... These 2 teams have met 4 times this season... GSW won all 4 by an average margin of 22pts. The last time they met in Cleveland, GSW obliterated Cav's by 34pts... The last game they played period, GSW won by 33pts. The combined margin of victory GSW has beaten Cleveland by the first two games of this series (48pts) is a NBA Finals record. Oh and Love is possibly done for the series... When I look @ the consensus picks for game 3, however the picks are 50\50???? Maybe I'm crazy, however besides being a glutton for punishment, or suffering from some severe masochistic disorder, why oh why are so many people still picking the Cav's??
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4fd1062 | 42 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Duderonomy: According to quantum mechanics, it is possible that if you bounce a tennis ball against a wall enough times, one of those times it will go through the wall, as a result of the empty space between the electrons in the particles of the ball and the wall... You'll see that happen before you see the Cavs win this series... Nice!!! LMAO!!! It is astounding to me the lengths people will go to blind themselves from the truth... GSW will be the 2 time champions of the NBA and there is absolutely nothing all the wishfully thinking in the world is going to do to change that!!! |
Achilles1629 | 66 |
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I concur with you all on the Warriors... I got GSW on the series as well. I gambled and waited too long hoping all those Cav's\OKC backers would drive the line down from -215... Instead though it went up and I got it at -235... Again been saying it from the start... Can't go broke taking a profit!!! |
Covers | 20 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Duderonomy: Pretty sure it would be (-3) if Love hadn't been injured... but when you consider how dominant the Warriors were in that game, it just goes to show... linesmakers are not as reactionary as bettors... they stick to their guns! "Stick to their guns" is right!!! Average margin of victory this season between these two teams... 22pts!!! Game 2... Wipe out... Cleveland loses by 33pts!!!! Oh and to top it off K-Love might be done for the series with a concussion!!! Yet Game 3 opens Cleveland -1??? Wow!!! Although I have noticed Vegas has come to their senses with GSW installed as favorites now in most books... Before the series started I had GSW losing one of the next two in Cleveland, for no other reason than having the series clinching game on there home floor since the weren't able to do so last year, so it really won't surprise me if GSW loses on Wednesday, however the way the action has still been coming in on Cleveland, this is starting to feel like GSW will be up 3-0 after game 3... |
scottdawg | 87 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Duderonomy: It's not exactly rocket science! Homecourt in the NBA is valued around 4 points... in the playoffs it is more like 5 points, and for GS it is at least 5 points... So if they are favored by 6.5... subtract 5 points, and then swing it 4 more points for the Cavs for HC advantage... suddenly you have Cavs favored by about 2.5 when it gets back to Cleveland... Now, I am not saying the Cavs SHOULD be favored... I am saying, 100% beyond a shadow of a doubt (unless Lebron gets injured)... THE CAVS WILL ABSOLUTELY BE FAVORED IN CLEVELAND FOR GAME 3! It has very little to do with logic, and a lot to do with 1st grade level math! But I am curious... why are you talking sh!t to me for saying Cavs (-3)... meanwhile Scottdawg said they will be favored by 8... Direct your crazy rant at him! And don't forget to say "My Bad" when the game 3 line comes out, and the Cavs are the favorites! Never afraid to admit when I'm wrong... You were correct about them being favored... MY BAD!!!... They are -1pt favorites???
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scottdawg | 87 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Duderonomy: I would say if GS wins game 2, line will be around Clev (-5)... if Cavs win, line will be Clev (-3)... won't be as big of a disparity as you are suggesting... We'll see! What game are you watching??? Couldn't be possibly watching the NBA??? I will go out on a limb and say @ no point in this series will Cav's be favored... I will give you this depending on how game 2 or 3 plays out it is remotley possible going into game 3 or 4 they could be like a PK, but that is extremely improbable. Let me ask you this... 3 times this year these teams have played... Twice in GS and once in Cleveland... Margin of GS victories??? 6pts, 34pts, and 15pts. The 34pt victory was in Cleveland!!! Maybe I'm crazy??? PLEASE PLEASE explain to me what logic you are using to come up with Cleveland being favored period -3 to -5pts??? I'll tell you what if Cleveland comes out a -3 to -5pt favorite in any game in this series I would sell my home and every worldly possession to put on GSW!!!
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scottdawg | 87 |
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Quote Originally Posted by StanThaCaddy: This series will be 2-2 going into game 5. So either each team protects their homecourt or each team steals a game. And before anyone says Golden State is too good for that, I'm not saying I think the league fixes games, but I think the refs will be favoring teams in order to assist in having an even series for game 5. Cleveland will get EVERY call tomorrow. And if its 1-1 going back to Cleveland, the loser of game 3 will get every call in game 4. I don't buy that its rigged but I do believe refs will assists in extending this series as best they can. As for you bro, you need to WAKE UP!!! This series isn't going 6 games. Although there is some validity to your "ref" theory, that would only give the CAV's what a game. I mean come on... did you even watch game 1??? Have you been watching the playoffs @ all??? With there big guns benched GS stil OBLITERATED Cavaliers. Even if you believe GS bench played a once in a lifetime game, you can't believe Klay and Stef will sink it up as badly as they did... Bottom line is this... Just as OKC blew there chance in game 6 Cav's blew there best chance to get a win in GS in game one. While the -6.5 number worries me, GS winning the game outright does not. This series has gentleman's sweep written all over it. Most likely Cav's will get there only win of the series in game 3, but open your eyes... The Warriors are the far superior team and they have a chip on there shoulders... Bad bad combination for the Cav's... They are truly in front of a buzz saw... Take my word for it or take it with a grain of salt... We will revisit this conversation in a week though...
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scottdawg | 87 |
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Quote Originally Posted by scottdawg: first of all duder...slow your roll.. The post was supposed to be semi humorous. Second of all... please come back to this thread for game 3. And I'm not saying the games are rigged (although I believe they are but am not going to open up that can of worms here) but the lines ARE ABSOLUTELY RIGGED. Game 1 drew fairly even action...and after a double digit victory do you think oddsmakers were attempting to draw even action on game 2 by making the line 6.5? Ask yourself if there would have been 50/50 action on GSW -9.5 (and be honest with yourself) Option 1 - they made a mistake and would adjust accordingly by moving the line after receiving lob sided action option 2- they were well aware of the line they made and the results it would induce... so they hold tight and welcome the heavy gsw action with open arms without even flinching on the spread (this is what is happening)
What game 1 achieved- the books recorded a ATS win for the fav, which helps balance the trend for the series. The whole world goes from entertaining the idea the cavs might take it down, and the whole world jumps on the gsw for game 2 (because why would they not after what they just watched) Your not insulting my intelligence so I'm not offended. But, by saying -6.5 is the play here you are absolutely insulting the intelligence of oddsmaker's...which (especially on high profile prime time games) typically does not yield very promising results.
What I expect- One of the NBA's best actors (and is litteraly and actor now lol) shifts to his real form and we see one of the NBA's greatest players play real basketball.... and its going to be fun to watch. I'm anticipating a 40 point +effort from LeBron tonight. Which will leave betters scratching their heads once again.
Also, people keep talking about who is going to win the series... By taking a side in game 2 it doesn't mean that I think the cavs are going to take it down, and I think that logic is going to yield winning results either.
You guys are so malleable from game to game based on what you just watched. That's why asked "have you not been watching post season basketball this year" Am I an idiot and ALL of you are right? it certainly seems that way if we assume that because all of you are in consensus I am surely the one that's wrong. I assure you that's not the case here though. And FYI duder...I think gsw wins in 7...so thanks for your wisdom... It will make you money on the series price but NOT on game 2....Don't worry I'll let you know when its time to bet them and you can gobble up some of that monetary gain.
Couldn't agree more... GSW -6.5 when it should be @ -9.5... Very very scary proposition... That's exactly why I'll be counting my $$$ from game 1 and sitting this one out!!!
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scottdawg | 87 |
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These games are the hardest ones to pick to me... GSW wins game 1 by double digits, all the while "Splash Bros" stink it up... So now here comes game 2... No way Stef and Klay play that badly again... Yet the line opens up a mere half point higher @ 6.5 than game 1 did??? This screams take Clev, however I can't see GSW losing game 2 two years in a row... Since I'm ahead I'm a sit this one out, however this sure feels like a win no cover kinda situation??? CLE 98 GSW 104 |
Covers | 22 |
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Quote Originally Posted by 4fd1062: Is this as easy as it feels??? No way GS loses game one 2 series in a row??? GS -245 ML (Game 1)??? GS -210 (Series price)??? GS +320 (5 games)??? Uhhh... Yep... Actually way easier than it felt... It blows my mind how many people can't see the game Vegas is running on them??? Klay and Stef both play horrendously and GSW still wins by double digits??? I might be in trouble on my 5 game prop bet... I was thinking gentleman sweep... This is looking straight take all your pride, manhood, and lunch money sweep!!!
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Covers | 20 |
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