Indigo999

We'll see if we're right Rx......

Teams that have thrown the ball for less than 200 yards in each of their prior two games have gone 5-11 ATS (-4.9), 3-13 straight up (-5.6) in the divisional championship round, including 2-5 SUATS at home......VERSUS Chiefs, Eagles.

game type=CH and playoffs=1 and p:PY < 200 and pp:PY < 200 and site

Will try to execute the paste instructions of Dogbite Williams....it is all about the execution!!....lol.

This angle actually went 8-0 ATS (+8.8), 5-3 straight up (+4.4), 1-7 o/u (-3.6)

game type=CH and playoffs=1 and tS(W, N=8)-oS(W, N=8)<0 and opS(playoffs)>2

Another angle I touched on briefly in this thread.....a team with the lesser amount of wins in their previous 8 games in comparison to their present opponent have gone 25-7 ATS in the conference championship game, which fits the Bills.

If their present opponent played in at least 3 playoff games the season prior, this moves to 7-0 ATS (+11.6), 6-1 straight up (+8.0) and 1-6 o/u (-3.6).....average line +2.43, 45.6, average score....25.6-16.4

Ja, to you too Fuse.....

Actually I looked it up....the 1997/98 season, the Broncos beat the Chiefs at KC in the conference divisional round after which my bet was placed on the Broncos to win the Super Bowl, then the Broncos beat the Steelers at Pittsburgh before beating the Packers in the SB.

Many years ago, I took the Broncos at +500 to win the Super Bowl going into the conference championship.....they beat the Chiefs on their home field (think they were a less than a field goal away favorite in that game) and they then won straight up as an +11 underdog to the Packers in the Super Bowl back in the Elway/Davis/Favre days  when the Packers were the defending champs.  It was my biggest win in my NFL betting life. 

I am going against some strong angles supporting the Chiefs, and of course they are the champs who have been there multiple times before.

I have a 15-1 ATS angle that covers by almost 8 points/game supporting the Bills if they were to meet the Eagles in the Super Bowl.  

Plays:

1)  Commanders +6'....2 units

2)  Bills +260 to win the Super Bowl....3 units

I will let my Bills play ride if the Bills and Eagles were to win..........I will hedge back on the Commanders on either the moneyline or spread depending on what the line looks like if both Washington and Buffalo get through.

Good fortune tomorrow....

query text........AD  and line<oA(margin, N=8)+3-tA(margin, N=8) and game type=CH

25)  A conference championship round away dog who has the better per game scoring margin.....0-5 ATS (-8.3), 0-5 straight up (-10.2)....VERSUS Bills

26)  A conference championship round away dog whose calculated line using each teams' last eight games is less than the Vegas line....6-12 ATS (-5.6) 2-16 straight up (-10.7)....VERSUS Bills

27)  A conference championship round away dog whose calculated line using each teams' last eight games is greater than the Vegas line....17-11 ATS..........ON Commanders....in the last 9 games teams in this situation has won outright 6 times and lost by a field goal the other 3 times.

query text.....AD and line

Calculated lines, last 8 game scoring averages

  a)  Chiefs 20.6-17.8=+2.8

  b)  Bills 33-23.8=+9.2

  c)  Commanders 29.9-25.2=+4.7

  d)  Eagles 27.1-17=+10.1

Calculated line, giving 3 points to home team

Commanders +8.4

Bills  -3.4

The disparity of lines mimics Sagarin's power ratings....Vegas is taking a side on the Chiefs and the Commanders.

Plays:

1)  Notre Dame +9......loser

2)  Commanders +6'....2 units

CANCELLING MY BILLS BETS....lost 1/10th of a unit on the buy-out.

22)  Conference championship round away teams with the turnover advantage of at least 2 their previous game have gone 10-3 ATS (+5.8), 6-7 straight up (-0.2).....Bills, Commanders

23)  Conference championship round home teams that committed zero turnovers their previous game have gone 5-7 ATS (-1.9) and 8-4 straight up (+4.2)......Eagles, Chiefs

When two opposing teams committed zero turnovers their previous games, the home team went 3-3 ATS (-1.8), 5-1 straight up (+3.2)

24)  Championship round teams that were out-gained...

  a)  away teams....8-9 ATS, 4-13  straight up (-4.8)......Commanders

  b)  home teams ...4-4 TS, 5-3 straight up (+6.4).....Chiefs, Eagles

21)  Teams with the worse won/loss record their previous eight  games, how do they do in the conference championship round and the Super Bowl?

The short answer is, generally they have done very well....dispelling the notion that the "hot" team is the team to back.

  a)  In the conference championship round they are 25-7 ATS (+6.97)........Bills have gone 6-2 and the Chiefs have gone 7-1 their last 8 games......ON Bills

  b)  In the Super Bowl those teams with the lesser record their past eight games in comparison to their present opponent have gone 14-3 ATS (+7.03)

Both the Eagles and the Commanders have gone 7-1,.........if we take this to the last 9 games, this moves to Philly 8-1, Washington 7-2.

Query text.....tS(W, N=8) < oS(W, N=8) and playoffs=1 and game type

I was able to post that query from Comment #32 using my preferred SDQL at GTD: PO = 1 and p:PY < 150 and A and -4.2 < line < 4.2 ATS:  15-5-0 (3.1, 75.0%) Good luck everybody.[/Quote]

Yes well, you're a better man than me....I tried multiple times/ways.

The fact is, teams in this round are 18-14 straight up when a team  won the previous matchup.....16-16 ATS.

  Mahomes is the chosen one and current golden boy after Brady retired. Storyline all year has been can KC be the first team ever to 3peat. Refs will be helping KC in a close game. It’s hard to beat a team twice in the same season and the Bills win earlier this year was in Buffalo. Riding the Mahomes vs Allen trend in the playoffs 3-0. Some teams just have the other teams number. 

Are you trying to argue with me?....don't take it personally that I like the Bills....if you like the Chiefs, all well and good, they obviously have been doing quite a bit right the past few years.....they could very easily win this game in Arrowwood.

When you say "it's hard to beat a team twice in a season" what facts do you have to back that up?

The fact is, teams in this round are 18-14 straight up when a team  won the previous matchup.....16-16 ATS straight up.

I suppose because you know when the league wants one team to win you'd own your own tropical island and a few mansions, equivalent to Biff having his own personal  sports almanac.

20)  An away dog in the conference championship round whose present opponent won more than 14 games last season.....5-1 ATS (+5.2), 2-4 SU (-1.3).......Bills

19)  Both home teams in this round have won their past three home games.....if their opponent has:

  a)  won their last three away games, the away team has been 6-10 ATS (-2.2), 5-11 SU (-7.3), 11-5 o/u (+4.3)......Commanders

  b)  won less than their three away games, the away team has been 7-1 ATS (+6.5), 3-5 SU (+1.5) .......................Bills

Thanks for sharing MsKeets.....we'll take it as a positive sign for my Bills play if a Chiefs fan is on the Bills, even if it is just a teaser......

As far as the Eagles go, their qb is damaged goods now, and it has been my observation that running quarterbacks' performance at home is nothing to write home about......Murray (AZ), Jackson, Hurts, Daniels, etc.,...........it is on the road that they perform exceptionally well from a bettor's standpoint.

In general it is more important that the road team rushes well than the home team.

18)  A playoff away dog that passed for less than 150 yards the previous game.....29-17 ATS (+1.9), 19-27 straight up (-2.9).....if instead the line is between -4 and +4 this moves to 15-4 ATS (+3.4), 12-7 straight up (+2.4).......Bills

query text.......playoffs=1 and p:passing yards<150

and A

and

-4<line<4

Well, we'll see Ballin'.....as mentioned there's a dude on this site that just hit 60% on over 400 plays going against the trend.

Away divisional dogs in the playoffs....

a)  wildcard round 14-10 ATS.....7-17 straight up (-6.75)

b)  divisional round 5-3 ATS (+2.5), 4-4 straight up (-3.62)

c)  conference finals 1-2 ATS (-1.5) 0-3 straight up (-6.0)

Divisional away dogs after winning last divisional matchup and losing the one before that.

d)  wildcard round ....2-2 ATS (+4.25), 2-2 straight up (-2.25) 

e)  divisional round...2-0 ATS (+8.25), 1-1 straight up (+2.5)

f)  conference championship ....0-1 ATS (-2), 0-1 straight up (-6)