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Good fortune .... |
spottie2935 | 162 |
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Next week early lines... 1) Winnipeg -3 48 Edmonton 2) BC Lions -4 47 Hamilton 3) Sask pik 50 Ottawa 4) Toronto +2' 45 Montreal
Leans: Hamilton, Alouettes (especially if they lose to the Redblacks), Elks, Riders.....keep in mind the best days to play dogs is Friday
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Indigo999 | 10 |
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Cancelled my Redblacks moneyline play and took them at +3 instead. plays:
1) Elks +3'...........2 units 2) Redblacks +3...1 unit 3) Stamps +2'......2 units..........loser
4) Saints NFL -105......2 units 5) Jax State -6.....1 unit 6) SMU +2'..........1 unit 7) Kansas +110....1 unit 8) Ohio +20.........1 unit 9) J Madison +10'.. 1 unit 10) UTEP +9..........1 unit 11) ECU +6'...........1 unit 12) NM St +16'......1 unit 13) Oregon St -4'...1 unit |
Indigo999 | 10 |
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Regret taking the Stamps....will need to replace some parts next season....their defense is not too good, and their quarterback will need replacing.
Interesting how the three teams that started 0-4, the Bombers, Tiger Cats and Elks are the cash cows now. Crossover is in play for the west now with the Argos falling today.....their schedule is not easy as they play MTL, @WPG, OTT, @EDM....that last game could be for both of those teams' playoff lives.. Big game(s) for the Elks this week, and next....they will be cutting it fine if they win only one...will probably need to be 9-9 to make the playoffs. I may take them both games. I believe they are better than the Bombers now, but of course the Bombers have all the playoff and big game experience. The Lions will have the easiest schedule going forward, but ti gets complicated for them if they lose at home next week against the suddenly formidable Tiger Cats. They lose the tie breaker with the Bombers and probably with the Elks. A final 10-8 record probably wins the west division...Winnipeg plays @EDM, EDM, @ HAM, TOR, @MON....if the Als win this week @Ottawa, the Als probably will have first place locked up by the final week, which then should be a gimme for the Bombers. However if they lose, they do get Ottawa at home in a few weeks and Ottawa is nothing special away from their home ground this season. Almost certainly there will continue to be opportunities to back the Tiger Cats as big dogs (@BC, WPG, CAL, @OTT). BLM now looks like the stud he used to be and their defense has undergone a HUGE change. And Calgary, well, the same can be true of them, only in reverse,........certainly on the road you would fade them and probably at home as well.
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Indigo999 | 10 |
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5) Kansas +115......1 unit............48% 6) UTEP +10.........1 unit...........39% 7) NM State +16'...1 unit...........44% 8) Ohio +20..........1 unit...........48% 9) Buffalo +14.......1 unit...........39% 10) CFL Edmonton +3'..2 units. 40% 11) CFL Ottawa......+3..1 unit....40% 12) NFL Saints pik -105..2 units 13) J Madison +10'...1 unit.......43% 14) Jax State -6.......1 unit......63% 15) SMU....+2'........1 unit......37%
16) Tulsa +2............1 unit...........39%...cancelled 17) Rutgers +5.......1 unit...........38%....cancelled 18) Houston +5......1 unit............28%....cancelled |
Indigo999 | 72 |
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Indigo999 | 72 |
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1) CFL Hamilton +6'.....1 unit.......winner 2) CFL Calgary +2'.......1 unit.......loser 3) Nebraska -8............1 unit.......loser 4) Syracuse -8'............1 unit......loser 5) SJ State +12'..........1 unit......winner |
Indigo999 | 72 |
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Playing these tomorrow...
1) CFL Hamilton +6'.....1 unit 2) CFL Calgary +2'.......1 unit 3) Nebraska -8............1 unit 4) Syracuse -8'............1 unit 5) SJ State +12'..........1 unit The college plays are in an angle that produces a 10% ROI over the past 20+ years. |
Indigo999 | 72 |
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p) Away teams with a line between -7 and. +7 that rush for over 100 yards cover 64% of the time 1177-675-50 ATS. The Ravens have rushed for over 100 yards 35 straight games. When a home dog in game 3 rushes for less than 90 yards/game plays a team that rushes for over 150 yards per game they've gone 0-7 straight up, losing. by over 14 points per game. Obviously it is worth contemplating when thinking about backing a road team if they'll rush for over 100 yards. If a road team rushes for over 100 yards and also outrush yards their opponent they cover 72% of the time. If the road team rushes for over 100 yards and outrush attempts their opponent they cover 79% of the time.....1001-264-34 ATS (+8.3)....Dallas is rushing for 85 yards/game and Baltimore is rushing for 165/game. Other rushing stats.... Washington 177 per game, Bengals 72 per game SF 141/game, Rams 68/game p) A week 3 team that rushes for an average of less than 90 yards/game.....as: 1) an away dog ...80-49-3 ATS (+2.2), 62.3%........Panthers, Bears, Broncos 2) a home favorite..39-53 ATS (-1.7) 42.3%, .......VERSUS Bengals, Raiders, Jets...this moves to 17-33 ATS if they have one win exact...VERSUS Raiders, Jets
q) A week 3 away dog that rushes for over 150 yards/game has been 25-14 ATS (+3.7).....Packers, Chargers, Eagles, Patriots, Commanders r) A week 3 away favorite that rushed for over 150 yards their previous game 26-12 ATS, 30-8 straight up.....Ravens s) A week 3 home team that rushed for over 150 yards their prevous game 61-40 ATS.....Cardinals, Saints, Falcons t) A week 3 away team that rushed for over 150 yards, playing a team that allowed over 150 yards....16-2 ATS (+7.2) ON Ravens u) A week 3 home favorite that allowed more than 150 yards their previous game.....17-37 ATS...VERUS Seahawks, Raiders, Colts v) A week 3 home favorite that allowed more than 150 yards rushing their previous game, and rushed for less than 90 yards, playing an opponent off a home loss....1-9-1 ATS (-8.0)....VERSUS Raiders, Seahawks
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Indigo999 | 72 |
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I'm playing these in the CFL.....CFL dogs of less than 7 who have the lesser winning percentage compared to their present opponent have gone 11-3 ATS the last couple of months...we'll bet this to continue this week.
Plays: 1) CFL Hamilton +6' -105.....1 unit....Hamilton is playing better than any team in the Eastern Division right now after being terrible for the first 8 or so weeks of the season...would not surprise me if they won straight up 2) CFL Calgary +2', -105......1 unit.....bought out and then re-bought in a the less advantagous price for one instead of two units...I like the Stampeders to win straight up....however Saskatchewan seems to make every game come down to the last minute where they eventually lose a very close game....two and a half points is bigger than one might imagine in the CFL, especially when the Riders are playing. 3) CFL Ottawa +125, 1 unit.........I had the Redblacks as 3 point favorites 4) CFL Edmonton +3', 2 units......Elks have been bet down below +3....I had them a -3ish favorite Two bottom dwellers, Hamilton and Edmonton are now among the top teams in the league. The situation is equivalent to a 200 day moving average in the stock market where the true state of the market at the present time can be missed....there has been violent movement of teams, as British Columbia and Saskatchewan were at the top of the division the first couple of months of the season, and Calgary was a contender and the three of them took huge falls, of which Saskatchewan still hasn't gotten on track. The bottom feeders (Edmonton and Hamilton) made some coaching changes and their teams have ignited. Bookmakers have been slow to respond so far to the true strength of the CFL teams at the present. The linemaker would be using season-long power ratings etc., when they might use a heavier rating system to more recent results. |
Indigo999 | 72 |
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Nice Hoody.... Only issue for me is that teams off a three point loss at home haven't done well on Thursdays.
p:HL and AD and division = o:division and p:margin=-3 and day |
Indigo999 | 72 |
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Quote Originally Posted by lmb4321:
@Indigo999 Anything On the Chiefs/Falcons Game........I was hoping Falcons lost vs Eagles....now line has moved towards Atlanta.....
A NFL home dog playing off an away dog win, versus a team that is off a home win has gone 60-28-3 ATS (+4.5), 68.2% before week 11....this moves to 16-10 ATS if our home dog prior to its away dog win lost at home. p:ADW and HD and op:HW and week<11 p:ADW and HD and op:HW and week<11 and pp:HL Home dogs playing a team that played in 3 or 4 playoff games the season before, who won at home their previous game have gone 48-32 ATS, 40-21-2 ATS versus a non-divisional opponent....8-1 ATS, 7-2 straight up if the home dog won their last game as a away dog. HD and op:HW and week<11 and opS(playoffs) >2 and not DIV This one looks pretty good! Only issue is that Andy Reid is about the best coach in history against the spread in road games. |
Indigo999 | 72 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Riderx:
Here's something to chew on for Thurs night... Before week 16, any dog on 3 days rest off an overtime game in which they scored 17+ points: rest=3 and p:overtime=1 and D and week<16 and p:points>16 0-9 ats...against NE+6 Play on: Jets-6
Nice one! |
Indigo999 | 72 |
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o) A week 3 underdog whose next week line is at more than 3 points stronger than their present opponent's next week line....81-39-3 ATS (+5.6), 67.5%, 67-55 SU (+1.6)....ON Cowboys, Dolphins Cowboys are 7 point favorites over NYG and the Ravens are 1 point favorites over Buffalo. Dolphins are 1.5 favorites over Tennessee and Seattle is 4.5 point dogs at Detroit. |
Indigo999 | 72 |
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Quote Originally Posted by hoody:
Indigo post 14 (E) are you missing 3 teams or is it me?
The Rams were missing.....home dogs have gone 22-14 ATS and away dogs have gone 65-39-1 ATS Rams' two best receivers are out for multiple weeks and their offensive line is like a MASH unit and they'll be playing the pissed off 49ers who except for the little matter of an NFC championship game has had their way with the Rams....I think the 49ers steamroller them e) A NFL underdog week three that has not covered either of their first two games and also has not won both of their games...87-52-1 ATS, 62.6% (+2.6)....this coverage rate increases to 64% if the line is less than 7 points......ON Dolphins, Panthers, Giants, Rams p:ATSL and pp:ATSL and D and week=3 and site |
Indigo999 | 72 |
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Getting back to the Saints game.....
n) A home team in week 3 that scored 30 points in each of their first two games, winning both of them....16-7 ATS, 21-2 straight up (+15.0), if their opponent is off a loss this moves to 8-4 ATS (+7.7), 12-0 straight up (+20.0).....ON Saints, Bills
Query text.....H and p:points>30 and pp:points>30 and week=3 and t:wins=2 and op:L |
Indigo999 | 72 |
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m) An away dog of less than 7 points that lost by more than 10 points their previous game in weeks 2/3 has gone 23-3 ATS (+7.1), 16-10 straight up (+2.6) since 2015.....ON Panthers, Dolphins Query text..........line<7 and season>2015 and week<9 and AD and p:L and p:margin<-10 and week<4 |
Indigo999 | 72 |
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Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:
I saw something online about favorite that lost SU are like 65% the next week In first 3 weeks. Even better if the lost by double digits.
I looked into this and weeks 2 or 3 a home favorite loser of greater than 10 points has gone 7-1 ATS, 5-3 ATS since 2015.....Dolphins, and home dog losers of greater than 10 points have gone 10-2 ATS, 5-7 SU in weeks 2/3 since 2015.....Panthers Sunday or Thursday away dogs of less than 7 points have gone 239-152-9 (61.1%) before week 9 since 2015..... |
Indigo999 | 72 |
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My college picks this week after last weeks' dismal performance...typically of all the football leagues I bet on...NCAA, CFL and NFL, my college picks have performed the best....week 3 of the college season can be tricky and it didn't go well...hopefully this week it turns around. Arkansas, Georgia Tech and Baylor fit the parameters of the angle I used that has been 105-50-1 (+4.9), going 58-98 straight up (-4.5) with an average line of +9.4. However those three teams are all publicly backed dogs, so they were filtered out. Plays:................................betting percentage 9) Tulsa +2............1 unit...........39% 10) Rutgers +5.......1 unit...........38% 11) Houston +5......1 unit............28% 12) Kansas +2'.......1 unit............48% 13) UTEP +10.........1 unit...........39% 14) NM State +16'...1 unit...........44% 15) Ohio +20..........1 unit...........48% 16) Buffalo +14.......1 unit...........39% |
Indigo999 | 72 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Rush51:
Quote Originally Posted by Indigo999: angles) a) A NFL home favorite in game 3 that lost on the road last week....42-82-6 ATS (-3.2), 75-55 straight up (+2.3)......VERSUS Colts, Bengals 1) This is 19-28 ATS if our home favorite has zero wins 2) This is 2-8 ATS on MNF Query text.....p:AL and HF and week = 3 and day b) A NFL week 3 away dog that lost at home last week has been 71-60 ATS, this moves to 38-23 ATS if their present opponent will be a dog the next week, as Seattle goes to play at Detoit their next game....ON Dolphins But this data is completely invalid when the starting QB for the Dolphins isn't playing , correct ?
That is for you to decide....it's your wallet. My view is that Tua is overrated and they'll play fine with Thompson and probably run the ball more, which usually means a good performance. |
Indigo999 | 72 |
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