akavir

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Member Since: August 2013

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replied to Yes I like it but under no circumstances will I do it....... in MLB Betting Quote Originally Posted by davemsh: Kershaw as he is undefeated at home May 1st against the Giants, Kershaw lost. My first big bet against him this year, I put a 50 spot on the Giants and won big, and I'm thinking about doing the same tonight with the Mets. I see the same indicators that the books have cooked this one to the hilt to drain bankrolls! View Post \| View Thread	Vic-Vega	11	June 19, 2017 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Dodgers -2 anyone? in MLB Betting Quote Originally Posted by cropduster: Can you get the Mets -2 somehow ? Might get +600 on that bet. 5dimes has -2.5 on mets at +945. There's a bunch of indicators pointing towards Mets winning or very easily covering +1.5, but I don't know about winning by 3... View Post \| View Thread	lajohn	22	June 19, 2017 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Here's why Kershaw will lose today... in MLB Betting Quote Originally Posted by Money4Nuthin: There is no value in this game on either side. This should be a no bet for everyone. Do you play every hand in poker? This is 2-7 offsuit- muck the hand- there are far better hands out there today. Sportsbetting isn't like poker in the hands you get. It is however similar in getting to know your opponent. In this case, the books. The square books are juicing the line hard, and the square books are keeping it reasonable. Usually a sign that the underdog will win. One of the squarest books around, sportsbook.com, has a 7-dime gap between favorite and dog. To me, it looks like they're wiping out bankrolls on the top end, and paying relatively little to the other 10% betting the dog. Even with a 2-7 offsuit, sometimes you flop 4 of kind 2's! View Post \| View Thread	akavir	36	June 19, 2017 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Here's why Kershaw will lose today... in MLB Betting Quote Originally Posted by justlol: but if you are betting real money why lay on the mets. Big value. I already cashed a $50 to win $100 on one of Kershaw's losses this year. The books make it an easy read when they truly think Kershaw will win, and when they're inflating their line's to wipe out bankrolls. Personally, I think this is the latter, but time will tell! View Post \| View Thread	akavir	36	June 19, 2017 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Here's why Kershaw will lose today... in MLB Betting Quote Originally Posted by pocketaces33: Cespedes and Conforto in the lineup today as well Still thinking Mets, and maybe this will be a correction also, but Cespedes hasn't gotten a single hit off Kershaw in 9 AB. View Post \| View Thread	akavir	36	June 19, 2017 View Post \| View Thread
created a topic Here's why Kershaw will lose today... in MLB Betting Looks like one of the biggest traps I've ever seen! I get it, it's Kershaw and the Dodgers are on a hot streak, but this isn't a huge mismatch. So far this year, no line of -275 or higher has lost, and is due for a correction. Moreover, I just did a search of the last 5 years of lines higher than -275. In general the line hits at a rate of 81%, but when you look at just the month of June over 5 years, the win rate of these lines is only 53%. It seems mid-June is the time, historically, that these big favorites start losing. Another interesting fact is Kershaw is coming off an extra day of rest. They pushed him back a day just so he could start this series. In games where he has 6 days of rest, the Dodgers win only 42% of the time, and for you run-line bettors, they only cover -1.5 in 1 out of 7! There's a whole other host of indicators pointing towards this one being a trap! Putting a Hamilton on Mets! View Post \| View Thread	akavir	36	June 19, 2017 View Post \| View Thread
replied to TAKE BALL ST/N ILL UNDER 72 !!! in College Football I'm with you on this one but going to tease it 10 pts for an under of 82! This is such a must win for both teams, I think you'll see both D lines bring their A game! View Post \| View Thread	CarolinaPride	31	November 13, 2013 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Northern Illinois Schedule this Season in College Football The spread has moved two full points in the course of 3 hours today. My first sim of this game said it would be Ball State in overtime. I've simmed this game several times now, and in all others since the first N Ill wins by 20+. I think you hit the nail on the head with your analysis of offense vs defense. The only data point that makes me think twice is Ball State's loss to N Texas. North Texas has a worse offense than N Ill, but a better defense. This one will definitely be interesting, but at the end of the day I've decided on a 10+ teaser of Nill bringing them to -1, Under 82, and giving Miami OH 27 1/2 in the Kent St game. I know some may think I'm crazy but I think it's a very real posibility of a Miami win tonight, and at the very least they WILL cover the spread! View Post \| View Thread	Tyler2834	2	November 13, 2013 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Why Vikings? in NFL Betting Seriously can someone help me understand why my book is giving up GB at -7.5 at +105?....WITH 75% OF ACTION ON GB??? I really want to lay big on GB, but this seems way to funny of a line? View Post \| View Thread	Capt_CoverPants	15	October 27, 2013 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Friday NFL Preseason in NFL Betting BOL! Like ur picks! View Post \| View Thread	TeThienDaiThanh	7	August 09, 2013 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Went 6-1 Thursday Preseason-Picks for Friday in NFL Betting Final bets into sportsbook: HOU -1 HOU/MIN Over 35 1/2 CHI ML PHI ML JAC ML DET -3.5 View Post \| View Thread	akavir	13	August 09, 2013 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Went 6-1 Thursday Preseason-Picks for Friday in NFL Betting @DRE-DAY Yeah I mistyped HOU as MOU. @sdsurfred7 Thanks. View Post \| View Thread	akavir	13	August 09, 2013 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Went 6-1 Thursday Preseason-Picks for Friday in NFL Betting Dolphins overpaid for their new 'talent' as usual this year. There are teams that live for the preseason since they will never make the playoffs in the regular season. After going 2-14 last year, they have to prove themselves here today. They have a much better preseason record(3-1 2012), and score an average of 25 points in preseason games(more than their regular season average.) But look for dolphins to do 2 straight touchdowns, I've got that game: 21 Jacksonville 14 Miami View Post \| View Thread	akavir	13	August 09, 2013 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Went 6-1 Thursday Preseason-Picks for Friday in NFL Betting Add JAC ML View Post \| View Thread	akavir	13	August 09, 2013 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Went 6-1 Thursday Preseason-Picks for Friday in NFL Betting For any wondering what I won from Thursday: Seattle Seahawks/San Diego Chargers over 35½ -110 for Game St. Louis Rams/Cleveland Browns over 35½ -110 for Game Seattle Seahawks -2½ -120 for Game St. Louis Rams +160 for Game Cincinnati Bengals +120 for Game Baltimore Ravens/Tampa Bay Buccaneers over 35½ -110 for Game Baltimore Ravens +150 for Game And I had scored WAS/TEN(22-21), and the actual was:22-21 I should have pulled the trigger two more times on WAS and the Over and gone 8-1 Thursday. DEN/SF was the only game I just couldn't figure out and glad I stayed away from it. View Post \| View Thread	akavir	13	August 09, 2013 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Went 6-1 Thursday Preseason-Picks for Friday in NFL Betting Add DET -3.5 View Post \| View Thread	akavir	13	August 09, 2013 View Post \| View Thread
created a topic Went 6-1 Thursday Preseason-Picks for Friday in NFL Betting You know that feeling when you miss a +9556 parlay by 1 FRIKIN TEAM! But taking them all as single bets hit me a wonderfully healthy profit for first day of preseason! But damn you St. Louis! I know this is my first post, but this is no joke, I went 6-1 today, and I will share my picks for Friday since I feel even better about these: PHI ML CHI ML CHI/CAR Game Under 34 HOU ML MOU/MIN Game Over 35 DAL/OAK Game Under 35.5 View Post \| View Thread	akavir	13	August 09, 2013 View Post \| View Thread

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