ATCawsw

Last Week: 6-4 (60%)

Season: 8-10 (44.4%)

Hope everyone is having a great holiday shortened week.  Last week, another subpar week for the computer, but at least it was on the positive side.  Nebraska totally disappointed to the point of making Ohio St. look like a national powerhouse, and for some reason the computer was on this years little darling of losers Colorado St for the second week in a row and they blew it as well (guess who is in this weeks lineup again...yup).

So here goes this weeks computer underdog picks, and hoping we can get it up to 70% or greater this week.

Have a great weekend folks....and Win Big:

Mia (Oh) +7.5 vs Bowling Green

Utah +7 vs UCLA

UTEP +16 vs Tulsa

Colorado St +20.5 vs San Diego St. 

S. Carolina +2.5 vs LSU

TCU +7.5 vs Baylor

Minnesota +3 vs Northwestern

Hawaii +3 vs New Mexico

Good Luck everyone! 

Last Week:  2-6  (25%)

Season Posted: 2-5 (25%)

All I can say is....WOW.  2-6 last week, I think my wife can do better by picking the color of the jersey's she likes on the teams.  However, what is the saying when you get bucked off the horse......shoot it, sell it for dog food and buy a new horse.  So that's what I am doing.

Made adjustments to the program, and changed it back to just Underdogs again. 

Again, recommend not tailing anyone, but use the information you find to help you on your quest in beating the book.

So here are this weeks updated program picks:

Lines may be off a little (these were put in on monday and I haven't updated)

NOTE:   **** = computer predicted outright winner

East Carolina +14 vs Central Florida

Arkansas +10 vs Auburn

Florida +2.5 *** vs LSU

Colorado State +17 vs Fresno St.

Arizona +9 vs Stanford

Mississippi +12 vs Tex A&M

Purdue +3 *** vs Michigan

Wake Forest +6 vs Maryland

Nebraska +3 vs Ohio St.

Army + 10 vs Boston College

Hopefully the computer has a good week, and if it goes at 25% again, well, guess we keep posting its picks and choose the opposite 

Good Luck this week folks!  Win Big!

Back by demand (won't call it popular, but we'll call it something).  No deployments, no fried computers, no travel this year so let's get the year started on Covers.

Like in the past, I always like to get 4 weeks of data to get the statistics needed.  I have run many variations of the program over the last 4 weeks, and right now, I have gotten 70%, so I think it is ready to present.  Here is how the weeks have broken down so far (no these weren't posted...so don't bother asking where they are) with the newest formula:

NOTE:  In the past I have concentrated on Underdogs, this year I have used the both Favs and Dogs.

Week 1: 2-1

Week 2: 9-0

Week 3: 3-4

Week 4: 7-4-1

Overall: 21-9-1 for a 70% guess rate. Expect to go down to around 60% by end of year, but would be nice to hover around 70%.

It's not perfect....but better than outright guessing.  As always please use these computer picks to help you make your own decisions, I don't advocate tailing any one individual, use all your resources and make the best decision that you can make ON YOUR OWN.

With all that said, here is what the computer posted for me this morning after I adjusted all the lines:

*** = outright predicted Dog winner

Colorado State +15 vs Air Force

Marshall +16.5 vs Purdue

Idaho +24.5 vs N. Carolina

Ball State -1 vs Kent State

Iowa State +2.5 vs Texas Tech  ***

N Carolina State +2.5 vs Miami (FL)  ***

Minnesota +7.5 vs Iowa

Toledo PK vs Western Michigan

Best of Luck to you all this week, hope you win big!

Wake Forest (+7)

Ole Miss (+2.5)

SMU (+16)

Hello again degenerates.  Sorry for my absence the last couple/three weeks, was sent on an emergency get-away, with no computer.  Returned Monday, and have been backfitting stats into the computer ever since.  Hope you all have doing well and hitting the wins big.  Will post the records as soon as I have a little time here to go back and look at the last week that the computer played. 

Here is what ye ole computer has spit out for this week:  10/30/2010

Underdogs:

Louisville +9.5 vs Pittsburgh

E. Carolina +7.5 vs Central Florida 

Michigan State +6.5 vs Iowa

Florida +3 vs Georgia

Kentucky +6.5 vs Mississippi State

Favorites:

S. Miss -9.5 vs UAB

Northern Illinois -9 vs  Western Mich.

Northwestern -3 vs Indiana

Ohio St. -25 vs Minnesota

Auburn -7 vs Mississippi

Stanford -7.5 vs Washington

Utah -7 vs Air Force

Nevada -25.5 vs Utah St.

Arkansas -20 vs Vanderbilt

Overs:

Louisville/Pittsburgh over 56

Tex Tech/Tex A&M over 59

Missouri/Nebraska over 55

KY/Miss St over 56

Good luck this week folks.....may your wins be big, and your losses non-existent!  

Alrighty then......not a good start to the week with Middle Tenn St, but at least C. Fla charged back to even up the weeks record.

I finally finished this weeks computer picks...damn migraines.  So to finish up this week...here we go.

Favorite Selections:  YTD (week 3-5): 12-7  (63.2%)

                               Last Week: 5-2   (71.4%)

Middle Tennessee St. -3.5 vs Troy 

Central Florida -12 vs UAB 

Cincinnatti -17 vs Miami (OH)

Ball St - 4 vs W. Michigan

Fla International -9 vs W. Ky

LA Tech -1 vs Utah St.

W. Va -27.5 vs UNLV

Alabama -6.5 vs S. Carolina

California -8 vs UCLA

TCU -35 vs Wyoming

SMU -7 vs Tulsa

COMPUTER OVERS SELECTIONS:  YTD 1-1-1

S. Florida/Syracuse OVER 44

BC/NC State OVER 46.5

COMPUTER UNDERDOG SELECTION:  YTD 1-8

Louisiana-Lafayette +24 vs Oklahoma St.

Good Luck all you degenerates!  Hope you win big! 

Good Afternoon all....still working on this weeks picks, but so far there are two for the favorites that are tonight and tomorrow, so wanted to post them quickly.  I should have the rest by tomorrow sometime.  Here we go for tonight and tomorrow:

Favorite Selections:  YTD (week 3-5): 12-7  (63.2%)

                               Last Week: 5-2   (71.4%)

Middle Tennessee St. -3.5 vs Troy

Central Florida -12 vs UAB

Will get the underdog, and overs picks out to you as soon as I can.

Good luck folks! 

Buster and BTM - interesting theory, let me go back and see what i can do.....

Thanks folks...much love for you all! 

DU - brother....would love to see it, but no matter what I do....Vandy just doesn't have a shot...i'll prolly eat my words now..heheh.  Good luck! 

Oi Vey.......another craptastic week for the underdog selections the computer made, going 1-3.  Favorites came up 4-3 for at least something positive.

I have been working on the Underdog formula all weekend, and god knows it wasn't fun trying to find a winning computation out of this year.  I have had to run so many simulations until I finally got a formula which has gone 4-0 this year....everything else I ran came up with a losing record or even less picks.  What does that mean...well it means the parameters are so tight right now, that there isn't even a selection this week that falls into the formula.  I will have to re-visit again after this weekend, to see if I can loosen it up again, but it really isn't looking like it right now.

So on with the computer picks for WEEK 5:

Underdog Selections:  YTD (wk 3/4)  1-8  (looowwww %)

None 

Favorite Selections:  ytd  (week 3/4) 7-5  58.3%

Alabama -9.5 vs Florida

Boise St. -41.5 vs New Mexico St.

UCONN -7 vs Vandy

Pitt -19.5 vs Fla International

TCU -33 vs Colorado St (finally the computer is on the other side..though they did hit last week)

UTEP -14.5 vs New Mexico

USC -11 vs Washington   (Home field should help them some)

And now for your viewing pleasure I have been working on a formula for predicting OVERS for the last 4 weeks.  For the season it has went 12-2 for me and went 5-0 last week (thank god cause I lost money on my other bets).  So.....I would like to put the OVER picks on here, and give it the old Covers jinx and see if it can keep up with what it is doing.  Again, only 4 weeks of using this new formula, but it looks pretty solid so far.....let's see how she do.  Next project will be an UNDERS program....do i really have time to do all this.....probably not, but sleep is over-rated.

OVERS PREDICTION FROM THE PUTER:

FLA ST/ VIRGINIA OVER 48

VA TECH/NC ST OVER 55

PENN ST / IOWA OVER 42

As always best of luck to you all, may your wagers be large and your losses non-existent! 

Hope this finds you all well.  I have been working on getting a formula for both Underdogs and Favorites all weekend and this week, because after last week I felt that I needed to start over with the formula and get this thing back online.  So after quite a few hours, I hopefully have something of value over time. 

When the season started, I said that I needed 3 or 4 weeks to get enough data to work the formula and that during those "preliminary" weeks of gathering data the record wouldn't count....but I can't do that.  I want to provide you all with a 70% winning percentage over the regular season, and that is what I am going to strive to do.  With that said, I am dropping the really good weeks that the computer had on Week 1 and 2 with the Underdogs and the Favorites.  I will count Week 3, put myself in the hole and work hard for you to get out of it. 

So here goes (fingers crossed)

WEEK 4 COMPUTER UNDERDOG SELECTIONS:

RECORD YTD 0-5 (0%)

Bowling Green +25.5 vs Michigan  (19-38)

Georgia +1 vs Miss St  (17-11)

LA-Lafayette +1.5 vs Middle Tennessee  (19-13)

Colorado St. +7 vs Idaho (15-17)

WEEK 4 FAVORITE COMPUTER SELECTIONS:

Record YTD (3-2  60%)

USC -21.5 vs Washington St  (42-9)

Missouri -17.5 vs Miami (OH)  (40-13)

Marshall -5.5 vs Ohio (15-0)

UCONN -17.5 vs Buffalo (30-0)

S. Florida -27 vs W. Ky (38-0)

Troy - 11.5 vs Arkansas St. (35-14)

Oregon -10.5 vs AZ St. (45-25)

Best of luck to you all this week...and my humblest apologies for the incredibly terrible week last week.

P.S.  the added numbers behind the picks are the computers generated "score" for the games......just FYI.

Wow...what train just rolled over my ass.  This is unbelievable.  I apologize to all those that follow the computer picks.  I obviously have a lot of work to do to fix this.  Again, I apologize....should have waiting another week or two....

On another note...for those that like the favorites...had Illinois and Troy both actually played the last 15 secs of their games the Favs would have been 5-0 this week. 

Sorry folks...I promise to work on this and get a better product out there...this was simply embarassing.

Underdogs:  YTD: 6-2-1  (75%)

Western Ky +12 vs Indiana

Duke +23.5 vs Alabama

Tulsa +7 vs Oklahoma St 

Rice +7 vs Northwestern 

Washington +3 vs Nebraska 

_________________________________

Favorites:  YTD:  2-1 (67%)

Southern Miss -5.5 vs Kansas 

Illinois -7 vs N. Illinois 

Army -5.5 vs N. Texas  

Stanford -17 vs Wake Forest 

Troy -4 vs UAB 

Duke and Washington not helping the cause out any.....and troy blows it with 10 secs left....oh what a day....

Underdogs:  YTD: 6-2-1  (75%)

Western Ky +12 vs Indiana

Duke +23.5 vs Alabama 

Tulsa +7 vs Oklahoma St

Rice +7 vs Northwestern

Washington +3 vs Nebraska 

_________________________________

Favorites:  YTD:  2-1 (67%)

Southern Miss -5.5 vs Kansas 

Illinois -7 vs N. Illinois

Army -5.5 vs N. Texas  

Stanford -17 vs Wake Forest

Troy -4 vs UAB 

Way to go Army.....Illinois....toying with my emotions...up/down/up/down...pffft....

Underdogs:  YTD: 6-2-1  (75%)

Western Ky +12 vs Indiana

Duke +23.5 vs Alabama

Tulsa +7 vs Oklahoma St

Rice +7 vs Northwestern

Washington +3 vs Nebraska

_________________________________

Favorites:  YTD:  2-1 (67%)

Southern Miss -5.5 vs Kansas 

Illinois -7 vs N. Illinois

Army -5.5 vs N. Texas  

Stanford -17 vs Wake Forest

Troy -4 vs UAB

Congrats S. Miss backers....good way to start off the weekend....time to keep it rolling! 

Underdogs:  YTD: 6-2-1  (75%)

Western Ky +12 vs Indiana

Duke +23.5 vs Alabama

Tulsa +7 vs Oklahoma St

Rice +7 vs Northwestern

Washington +3 vs Nebraska

_________________________________

Favorites:  YTD:  2-1 (67%)

Southern Miss -5.5 vs Kansas 

Illinois -7 vs N. Illinois

Army -5.5 vs N. Texas

Stanford -17 vs Wake Forest

Troy -4 vs UAB

Just wanted to update the card for this weekend, as I missed a play for the favorites....guess I didn't have enough coffee in me when I typed out the original list...so here goes Week 3 plays.

Underdogs:  YTD: 6-2-1  (75%)

Western Ky +12 vs Indiana

Duke +23.5 vs Alabama

Tulsa +7 vs Oklahoma St

Rice +7 vs Northwestern

Washington +3 vs Nebraska

_________________________________

Favorites:  YTD:  2-1 (67%)

Southern Miss -5.5 vs Kansas

Illinois -7 vs N. Illinois

Army -5.5 vs N. Texas

Stanford -17 vs Wake Forest

Troy -4 vs UAB

Okay...no more attacks on anyone in here but me.  It's all good, and I like the discussion.  But no reason to banter back and forth...we all must be friends.....

Jimmy - It's all good...the main point that I wanted to address out of your first post was the fact that I called them gimmee...and I can see how I used the wrong terminology.  And dat was all.  Didn't want to offend anyone.....as I am sure that some Bama fans might get delirious if you said that their team will give up "gimmee" points.  

The rest of your degenerates.....you are all the best....keep moving forward! 

I like your picks...well all except for WKU and Indy...on the other side of that one.  Don't see any reason to fade your picks this week brother....BOL!