AverageAllstar

I took Andreeva early. Even if she makes the SF the cash out will be decent.

Zheng @ 29:1 might be worth a wager too.

@BigDickHertzer

 The lesson is fade as the fav and wage as a dog.

-1.5 Games 1st set @ +200

Lots of value here. 

Damn… missed PK call and lots of dives to pull off the tie in some ugly soccer.

Hittin it for last 5 mins at +320

Ameliano + 120 

Luqueno looks gassed. Just watched two dudes give up, barrel over out of steam. Lots of time left to score for Ameliano.

We’re in a phase of tennis betting we’re unfamiliar with. The top players have the steepest lines and yet they don’t have the success of the all time greats. Playing dogs feels safer especially with the top players. And the field have narrower margins. 

Capping tennis is very hard. I run hot and cold. Players run hot and cold.

You could try live betting. Don’t follow the score board, watch the momentum shifts. WTA 125 and 250’s can be a could place to play the dogs.

GL.

Iowa St Cyclones O 74.5 @ -112

Gotta be a trap line. Oh well… I’m stepping in it. Join me!

Thought I’d post the W so people don’t confuse this pick with tonights match.

This kid’s legit playing against someone who is limited. Should be a clean win for the future tour level player.

RPM -3.5 @ -125

Ugh…

It’s not, but knowing why the move helps. That’s why I asked. If it’s just public opinion, then it makes sense to bet against. But if it’s because one of the players tweeted “I just ate cat food and I’ve been retching for three hours :sad emoji:” then I might want to follow the money.

I was tempted. Plus he played out-of-his-mind-good at Indian Wells.

No play for me but that line movement was crazy. Must have been public sentiment from last week. 

Edit: All I’ve heard about court conditions is that almost every tournament is slowing the game down. 

@Calde13

If the limits aren’t high, they’re not going to swing 100% on low limit wagers. They probably won’t swing at all. Nothing about this match says shady wagering is afoot. Injury, break up, barfed in practice, pictures of Diallo out at a coke fuelled orgy at 5:00AM circulating on Insta? 

Anyone heard any news on this matchup with Watanuki? Line went from -220 to -140.

@MindControl

Fading Tiafoe looks dangerous to me. His last four years at this tournament, his losses are to all top 10 players. Outside that he hasn’t dropped a set.

Some good plays so far. Nice hit on Brooksby! He’s looking good.

GL.

Poeltl Double/Double - Yes @ +110 2u

No IQ and Barnes might be out so Jakob should get some extra looks down low to help with scoring. Not to mention he’s more skillful and experienced than Sarr. It’s a good match up for him.

3 units? How do you recover your 400 unit losses wagering 3?

I recommend reading “Hard Courts” It’s an oldy but a goody. Talks about the new bargaining agreements with the Players Association and the ATP.

If you want my interpretation of it, yes. Top players on guarantees will show up to smaller tournaments and be gone by the QF’s or earlier if the points don’t have meaning to them.

A friend of mine was the GM at a major tournament for like 10 years. He told me one time he had made arrangements to drive Philippoussis to the airport on the Thursdays morning and he still hadn’t played his Wednesday match. If Mark had won that match, he was going to take a W/O the next day because he was leaving the tournament.

-1.5 Games 1st Set +105