bearcubs07

bearcubs07

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replied to wednesday sharps$$$4
in College Football

Clemson -3 and under

In a coin flip ill take the more disciplined team. My alma is arizona state so I've seen what indisciplined teams and their self destructive ways do. ACC is 1-5 in bowl games, Big East 2-1. My deciding factor in this game is that WVU lack of running game will mean lots of short drives which leaves there D on the field longer and they will tire. One game that stands out to me was the Syracuse game where WVU would consistently get Syracuse to 3rd down and couldn't get off the field (12/17 on 3rd D) . Clemson has Dwayne Allen, and he's a match up problem and they will exploit that just as Syracuse used Nick Provo. TE's have been issues in coverage for WVU all year.

When I talk about discipline I speaking more in terms of penalties. I'll also point to special teams for another area of advantage. WVU Is ranked 89 in STE and 86 FPA. Clemson is 39 and 41. Translation is Clemson will have better field position all game long and their special teams units are better top to bottom. For those who don't know STE is special teams efficiency and FPA is field position advantage. All the other stats I looked at they were pretty close (within 10 rankings) except clemsons defense was marginally better in defensive efficiency.

But games are played between the lines not on paper. Accordingy gorilla math bowl games are slightly in favor of favorites at 16-13-1 and with totals are 15-15 so whoever suggests Vegas doesn't know what they are doing is incorrect.

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poolman11

25

January 04, 2012

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replied to Orange Bowl-- 3-0
in College Football

3-2 now

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DoBoy

10

January 04, 2012

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replied to *** ORANGE BOWL ***
in College Football

We can agree to disagree. Was on the wrong side of ok st as well. Interesting you say that considering they had over 400 yds in only 20 mins TOP and scored on average in 1:30. I felt they were answering Stanford instead of dictating to them. They only scored when they had too and not when they should have. Blackmon wasn't involved soon enough and the first drive of second half was just putting game back in Stanford hands. Im assuming your saying they had no business because of missed FGs. FG kickers can never be undervalued in college football.

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badlands

54

January 04, 2012

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replied to 5-0-1 last 6 bowls and after tonight it will be 6-0-1.EASIEST WINNER
in College Football

Clarifying dogs that covered against consensus.

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39

January 04, 2012

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replied to 5-0-1 last 6 bowls and after tonight it will be 6-0-1.EASIEST WINNER
in College Football

Uhem let me clear my throat children. This is unofficial because I'm basing it only on the numbers here on covers. But 10-9-1 is the record for consensus picks in bowl games over 58%. Of the dogs that covered vs favorites, 4 won outright. The only reason anybody makes a big deal about it is because such a large percentage on one side that loses means the house kills it. I posted earlier so far in the bowl games favorites are 16-13-1 and totals are even at 15-15. Bet against the public you'll win half the time. It's probably that close. Clemson -3 under 62. I've posted my reasons 4 times today, and I'm too tired to do it again.

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39

January 04, 2012

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replied to *** ORANGE BOWL ***
in College Football

Quote Originally Posted by badlands:

dude michigan had 184 total yards. repeat that to yourself 10 times. ive never seen an offense with so little total yards unless it was new mexico playing lsu. you told me michigan was gonna run all over them. and techs kicker had nothing to do with it. actually he was great. he was like 4-5.

vtech outgained them by 200 freakin yards they just pissed away to many chances with dumb shit. oh and btw that was a touchdown in overtime. they play that game 10 times tech wins 7 easy

You can slice it however you want it, the final score was 23-20. And as far as the 4 out of 5 kicking, the only one that matters is the last one. So him not mattering is why the final scoreboard reads 23-20. Tech lost because there coach made stupid decisions, they turned the ball over and they committed too many penalties.

Final numbers don't reflect the whole game. As far as yards go, tech almost had as many yards in 4th as they did the whole game so michigan was doing what I thought it would but ran out of gas in 4th being on the field too long and let tech convert 2 3rd and long and one 4th in long.

While I felt Michigan was lucky cause they lost any and all momentum they had in the 4th quarter with that 16 play game tying drive, I also felt tech was lucky Michigan couldn't do or sustain shit on offense and capitlize on all of the tech mistakes like the genius move to go for it on 4th down at midfield in a tie game when UM was doing nothing offensively.

And the nose of the ball hit the ground and the ball moved. Ruling is an incomplete pass. Rule book son.

Say whatever you want because I was wrong Michigan didn't run on tech but aside from that I wasn't wrong on anything else minus Michigan won by 3 instead of 7. Teams win all the time with defense and special teams. Chicago bears beat the az cardinals scoring 3 pts on offense and winning 24-21.

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badlands

54

January 04, 2012

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replied to *** ORANGE BOWL ***
in College Football

I almost guessed the final score. I said 24-17 it was 23-20 so I may have been off as to how Michigan would score but result was same. When score was 17-9 I was feeling pretty nostrarothstein. And I'm pretty sure I mentioned there kicker biting them in the ass like Stanford. 3rd downs in the 4th quarter killed Michigan, offensively and defensively.

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badlands

54

January 04, 2012

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replied to *** ORANGE BOWL ***
in College Football

Exact opposite, same as last night. While Clemson has "not shown up" in there 3 losses. I'll give you 5 reasons why WVU will lose. They are bottom half 1/3 of FBS in penalties, FPA, and STE. If you don't know FPA is field position advantage, STE is special teams efficiency. Clemson is in the top 40 in both. Clemson is also better in defensive efficiency but not by a margin to get exited (18 spots). Offensively they are very close. WVU inability to run the ball consistently will keep Clemson ears pinned back and also limit there ability if they get lead late to hold on. On the penalties in the last quarter of the season WVU was committing almost 9 a game. Drive killers and keeping drives alive for opponents. They also struggle to cover TE's and clemson's is pretty good. Syracuse destroyed WVU with their TE, and teams that have utilized the position have faired well because it's a matchup problem for there LBs.

Clemson ran the ball very effectively on Virginia Tech, the same D that shut down Michigans run attack last night. They will run the ball, control the clock and shorten the game. WVU not running the ball will leave there defense exposed to higher TOP when game is over and won't be able to stop run.

Dana is a good OC but I posted a link on another thread that a big east official characterized their sidelines during games as chaotic. Clemson will show up tonight 31-24 Clemson. Score may even be lower than that (27-20), I'm banking on no special teams TDs and no defensive TDs.

Clemson -3 under 62

Good luck regardless

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badlands

54

January 04, 2012

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replied to ACC vs. BIG EAST???
in College Football

Quote Originally Posted by toonice4u420:

FINAL CLEMSON 31-24
CLEMSON UNDER63 N -3 DEAD LOCKED

Said almost the exact same thing on another thread.

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22

January 04, 2012

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replied to Am I the only one who noticed this in VT game??????
in College Football

Quote Originally Posted by marksb79:

ya but it was tipped 10 yrds down field, not at the line of scrimage?

It wouldn't have mattered anyway, they had a timeout it would have made the FG 5 yds longer. Let it go, games over, another game to be happy/sore loser about today. Gamblers are not objective you want every call our way and all the others are horse shit calls.

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Spider85

19

January 04, 2012

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replied to WV wins tomorrow
in College Football

In 4 of those instances where favorite was consensus, dog won outright. Almost 50% so if your gonna back a dog against the public may as well go ML.

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50

January 04, 2012

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replied to WV wins tomorrow
in College Football

And as far as public money and all that, so far consensus picks of 60% or greater are 10-9-1.

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50

January 04, 2012

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replied to WV wins tomorrow
in College Football

When I talk about discipline I speaking more in terms of penalties. I'll also point to special teams for another area of advantage. WVU Is ranked 89 in STE and 86 FPA. Clemson is 39 and 41. Translation is Clemson will have better field position all game long and their special teams units are better top to bottom. For those who don't know STE is special teams efficiency and FPA is field position advantage. All the other stats I looked at they were pretty close (within 10 rankings) except clemsons defense was marginally better in defensive efficiency.

But games are played between the lines not on paper. Accordingy gorilla math bowl games are slightly in favor of favorites at 16-13-1 and with totals are 15-15 so whoever suggests Vegas doesn't know what they are doing is incorrect.

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50

January 04, 2012

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replied to WV wins tomorrow
in College Football

In a coin flip ill take the more disciplined team. My alma is arizona state so I've seen what indisciplined teams and their self destructive ways do. ACC is 1-5 in bowl games, Big East 2-1. My deciding factor in this game is that WVU lack of running game will mean lots of short drives which leaves there D on the field longer and they will tire. One game that stands out to me was the Syracuse game where WVU would consistently get Syracuse to 3rd down and couldn't get off the field (12/17 on 3rd D) . Clemson has Dwayne Allen, and he's a match up problem and they will exploit that just as Syracuse used Nick Provo. TE's have been issues in coverage for WVU all year.

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50

January 04, 2012

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replied to WV wins tomorrow
in College Football

https://espn.go.com/blog/bigeast/post/_/id/28397/a-different-view-of-the-orange-bowl

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50

January 04, 2012

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replied to WV wins tomorrow
in College Football

Espn big east blog.

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50

January 04, 2012

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replied to WV wins tomorrow
in College Football

Quote from big east ref

"The biggest difference we've all noticed so far when it comes to how Bill Stewart ran things versus how Dana Holgorsen does it has been sideline discipline. It just feels like total chaos at times. Maybe he's still figuring out the CEO part of the job, but a crazy sideline is usually an indicator of disorganization elsewhere. ... Catch them in one of those stretches and you can gash them. That's why they lost games they shouldn't have and had so many that were close that shouldn't have been."

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50

January 04, 2012

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replied to WV wins tomorrow
in College Football

Clemson and under. I am counting on no special teams TDs and defensive scores. Since playing UNC in October Clemson hasn't had a game go over 60. WVU won't be able to run with consistency and Clemson should be able to generate some heat on Geno. I think he'll make a few mistakes. Clemson should be able to run the ball and control TOP. And Clemson is in the top 15 in penalties committed per game (4.4), WVU is in the 70's and have committed almost 9 per game their last 3. WVU last 3 games were all under 60 as well and the south Florida game which hit 57 had 3 TDs from defense/ST. I don't trust either of theses teams but I'll take the ACC over Big east this year. 31-23 Clemson. Good luck to all, I dont think this has shootout written on it. Hopefully it's starts dreadfully slow like the ok st game did.

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50

January 04, 2012

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replied to Did the Michigan kicker get away with a false start?
in College Football

Never said I wasn't pissed about it. But not posting oh its a fix, Vegas is in on it. PAC 12 refs are paid by Vegas blah blah blah. Grown men (I think) posting rediculous things. Deal with it and move on. And I never posted a thing of any such nature when it happened. Shit feels like the grassy knole.

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chef702

27

January 04, 2012

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replied to Did the Michigan kicker get away with a false start?
in College Football

Cry cry cry. Listen to yourselves. Fix this fix that. Ref this ref that. Vatech makes there FG and your not even talking about this. If you had them at +3 you pushed, stop crying. Sometimes I wonder if grown ass men are on this site or little fucking children. Try having 3k riding on the 1ft that ok st didnt feel like sneaking last night. Did anyone see me crying oh fuck weeden and gundy, they were on the fix. Did i question why they wouldnt just sneak it or go for the TD, of course. Even though i know the answer why they did it, a win is a win in the eyes of the players and coach, they could give a fuck about spreads. Everything is a calculated decision, that's why it's GAMBLING! Cry to your mama not on covers.

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chef702

27

January 04, 2012

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