Blaine_Wesley

This time last year I started sports betting again with a set amount of money that I now would consider to be only 2 units. Long story short, I have had crazy success and turned those 2 units into 100 units over the last year.

But this last week I stupidly (drunkenly) got myself into a vicious downward spiral of parlays and hedging with more parlays. Basically I'm down 30 units with this 10 unit parlay still live:

Packers (-900), Vikings (-750), Browns (-340), Ravens (-290), Dec. 8 Miami Heat (-320), Eagles (-450)

I hit the first 5 plays and just need an Eagles W. I'm also a huge Eagles fan and can't look at this without bias.

Do I let it ride and trust they'll beat the Giants which would pay 35 units and put me up to 105 total?

Or hedge on the Giants ML to guarantee I get back to 94ish units?

And yes I know this is a very stupid way of gambling. I am usually much more disciplined and stick to my systems.

I've always understood it to mean you would be betting $100 and if you win you would post your record as (1-0, +0.67 units). Seems like that makes the most sense. But I've seen people say they are making a "1 unit play" which would mean they are betting $150 to win $100. 

This game screams no play, but the degenerate in me is having trouble staying away from the rare early Tuesday game.

Both teams seem to be struggling lately against pretty soft schedules. The Mets stink on the road and the Yankees are looking far from complete. With Wheeler and Tanaka on the mound I was kinda leaning under 9. But then again it is Yankee Stadium and I believe the wind is blowing out.

Also team to score first is Mets (-140), Yanks (+110)... 

Think I might take Mets and Under but I don't love it.

I took Nova for you. Enjoy your winnings haha GL

Let me know what you decide and I'll bet the other side so you have a guaranteed winner. I CANNOT make money betting on or against Villanova this year. I'm to the point where I'm flipping a coin and still losing. It's actually becoming hilarious.

If I had to pick it would be Prov plus the points so that probably means Nova will blow them out.

Yeah they are making me nervous. I should probably stop including their ML's in these things.

Oh shit really? I thought these games were tomorrow...

Put together this 5 team parlay and I’m trying to figure out if and how I want to hedge:

Bucks -7

Pacers +115

Hawks +130

Warriors -680

Rockets +250

+3690 total

Are the Hawks and Rockets going to hold on?

I’m running a test for a new system in the month of May without wagering. If it goes well I’m gonna try it out in June.

System criteria:

Bet dogs between +110 to +150

Eliminate dogs on an L3

Eliminate dogs facing an opponent on a W3

Eliminate dogs in last place in their division

From May 1-May 17 the system is 28-21 (59.57%) +17.39 units

It’s still a relatively small sample size but I’m gonna keep an eye on it for the rest of the month. Has anyone tried a similar system?

My buddy and I are starting a new system where we pick our top 3 MLB value picks each day and only lay a unit on what we agree on (plus maybe 1 more if we can convince each other)

My Tuesday picks:

COL -110

DET +115

LAD -170

His picks:

LAD -170

PHI -125

ATL +110 

Thoughts?