bluecoffee

This game actually became a bit more interesting with all of the QB questions.  Most guys hate uncertainty, but most of the time that is the only place where you can find a little bit of value.

A few thoughts on tonight's game:

First the ASU side of things:

1)  Home field is big for ASU under HC Graham. 11-3 straight up. 0-1 ATS as a home dog under Graham (loss to Oregon in 2012).

2)  ASU is ranked #15 in the AP poll.  This ranking is proof positive that sports writers do not actually watch football.  LSU, Wisconsin, Stanford, BYU, K-State and ECU are all ranked below ASU.......granted aside from BYU all of these squads have losses, but despite the early season loss they are all ASU's superior.

3) Wins over Weber State, @ New Mexico, and @ Colorado.  ASU rushed out to big leads over Weber and NM, and 17-0 vs CU in the first half.  Both CU and NM made 1st half rallies, but ASU was able to take 2 score leads into half time.  The defense yielded 200+ on the ground to NM and was shredded pretty good @ CU for 545 of total O, with 232 on the ground.

4)  As everybody knows, QB Kelly is out for this one......second leading rusher on the team, and key guy when it comes to running the read option game.  With the run threat greatly minimized, it will be tough for TB Foster to get the quality looks.

5) Phil Steele has the Devils as the most inexperienced team in the PAC 12, with a little over 55% of the lettermen returning from last year's squad.

A few thoughts on UCLA:

1) UCLA was everybody's pick to get into the playoff back in August. With 17 returning starters, 9 on O and 8 on D, talking heads will usually make a 10-3 team from the previous season a preseason darling.  The hype has died down a bit after lackluster showings, and the bandwagon is a bit lighter these days. What a difference a month makes.

2) QB Hundley should be in there tonight. Not sure in what capacity though....the injury is to the non-throwing elbow.  Unless it is broken, is that really an injury to a QB?  If the hands are good, throwing arm is good, and the legs work, then what is the problem?  So, either there is more to this injury, or his pain threshold has been reached...either way, look for the gameplan to limit the contact. Quick throws, and sideline hunting......

3)  UCLA is battle tested.  Wins @ UVA, @ Texas and at home against Memphis.  The Memphis game was a surprise at the time, but it was an obvious sandwich game vs a dog that is much improved over last season.  The Texas game was fairly impressive in that they managed to pull out a win without the QB, against a team that was physically on par. UVA's defense is also beginning to garner a lot of respect from their opponents.

4)  The 13 day prep time is big for UCLA.  They needed to gel up the O-line and that takes time. I look for improvement as the game wears on tonight.

5) Under Mora, UCLA is 9-3 SU regular season on the road ....losses last year were @Stanford, and @ Oregon. and @ Cal in 2012.  As long as the Bruins aren't heading too far to the north in the PAC, then I am not opposed to them traveling.

Bottom line:

This matchup is a major step up in class for ASU. They have played no one, and would need to be at full strength to win this game...without QB Kelly, the run game will suffer.  As for UCLA, the QB position is big, but it is not as big as most think as far as the outcome of this game goes. Neuheisel is listed as the backup, but UCLA will go to the highly touted redshirt freshman Woulard and run read option exclusively if the offense sputters.  I expect UCLA to be very effective running the football, and get TD's in the redzone, not FG's.  The challenges are many for ASU, but the redzone is an area where they will miss the running ability of Kelly.

UCLA is battle tested, has the superior defense, and is more equipped to win this game. The most favorable scenario is for ASU to jump out early (as has been the trend) and then get a +moneyline on UCLA to win the game straight up. We will see.

As for now, it is fade the public time.......  UCLA -3 (-110)