Bridge1

Welp the big play was for the win we like that but that coulda gone gangbusters and fell short of that ..

note to self when there's no D standout just start plugging the MASSIVE odds guys w most tackles, TJ TUI shoulda got it I think w the sack and TFL, Simon had like 1 more tackle didn't see him all game tho ..

idk how they didn't give T-HEN a TD on the 1 yd line when Quishhy had 2 already, hook yer friggin 4 year dude up guys ..

Leonard 34 yds on first drive ends w 40 beats the 37.5 friiig ..

Up 31-7 and somehow let em back in .. MOV busted .. next time gadget .. 

good luck n seeya soon .. 

NATTY
OHIO STATE WIN +115 
OHIO ST -7 (FAN HYPO) 

PROPS

RUSH
R.LEONARD UNDER 37.5 -112

REC
E.EGBUKA OVER 53.5 -112 
ADD: GREATHOUSE O22.5 -112 

SCORING
T.HENDERSON ANY TD +100 

TM TOTAL
NOTRE DAME UNDER 17.5 -105 

NATTY MVP
D.MVP CODY SIMON 7.5-1 
O.MVP JER SMITH 24-1 
O.MVP JER SMITH  7.5-1 
D.MVP TJ TUIMOLOAU 7-1 

MARGIN OF VICTORY!!!
OHIO STATE 31+ 9.5-1

@haymo

they ran QB power 9 times to open the game I figure they'd do more than that and .. yeah if OSU can't plug it up then its done but they limit that now get some sacks and see where it goes .. unfortunate start .. need some sacks here and we'll see, still early .. 

Good luck Wizer .. 

NATTY TIME .. ADDED GREATHOUSE AND THE MOV PROPS BELOW ..

GOOD LUCK EVERYONE!!! ..   

NATTY
OHIO STATE WIN +115
OHIO ST -7 (FAN HYPO)

PROPS

RUSH
R.LEONARD UNDER 37.5 -112

REC
E.EGBUKA OVER 53.5 -112
ADD: GREATHOUSE O22.5 -112

SCORING
T.HENDERSON ANY TD +100

TM TOTAL
NOTRE DAME UNDER 17.5 -105

NATTY MVP
O.MVP JER SMITH 24-1
O.MVP JER SMITH  7.5-1
D.MVP TJ TUIMOLOAU 7-1
D.MVP CODY SIMON 7.5-1

MARGIN OF VICTORY!!!
OHIO STATE 31+ 9.5-1

@JimboSlice01

Yeah took out big Marv from the game Egbuka picked up some of the slack there tho .. that's also reg season @ND, diff OC, diff QB but for sure its the big matchup if ND can man up and handle the big receiving targets then its trouble for OSU .. Whatever ND does they can't get beat deep, UT did a great job limiting the WR explosives no deep balls, no big catch n runs everything under 20 yards .. if not for the big screen play bucks are limited to ~210 pass yds probably the diff in the game since UT obvi kicks a FG on 4th down if they're tied up instead of getting CAPTAIN JACKED UUUUP!!! lol  

Yeah bucks can't have a 2 pick day and expect to win anything, gotta be much more efficient with the drives than they were last game they had a great first drive and basically went totally dormant from till the go ahead drive like 80 yards over 7 drives .. the offensive struggles have shown up time and again vs the better D's they faced Nebraska, Penn St, Mich, UT .. key to the game for ND make em drive the ball and there's a decent chance bucks will shoot themselves in the foot .. 

@Newtons Law

Yeah we'll see that's one of a few critical matchups in this game on both sides how much the WR's can be limited .. we knew PSU didn't have a quality in the unit coming in and ND legit shut them down completely 5 targets zero receptions and the pick and seemed to throw Allar totally out of sorts by limiting his targets .. and that's the talk for this one how they handle this group because we've seen Howard get outta sorts this year and seen bad throws, waiting for pressure, fumbling throwing pick 6's ..

ND's D needs a game like the Horns' D (nearly) delivered, cut J-Smith out of the picture completely and limit other big plays .. make the bucks drive it .. bucks have a rather glaringly ugly stat converting 3rd n shorts no real go-to guy for those so I'd expect ND does all they can to make OSU roll the dice in those situations ... Horns got them stopped on one 3rd n 1, Bucks killed 3 drives w penalties, 2 more failed taking sacks, and the 1 pick ..  T-HEN housing that screen was very fortunate .. otherwise the only good drives were the first and final ones and last drive had the false start set up the 4th n 2 .. just theoretically UT gets one more stop there on the 4th down, pick up 1 yard at the goal line, kick a FG early on, don't give up the big TD before the half .. all stuff they coulda and mostly shoulda done .. maybe Horns don't win 24-7 every time but its an easy win nonetheless .. that said think OSU prob wins that game by a TD most of the time and don't even need the couple freak TD's by just not getting the penalties, they've been great at limiting penalties all year, that one they get 9 lot of em were very impactful .. 

But yeah ND muddies up their offense and gets a little TO luck or Bucks start shooting themselves on their drives they can def lose this one certainly a path to not cover the > TD spread, -9.5 seemed a little rich for me that's why I just stuck to the Natty Win props and -7 on the hypo line .. That said Bucks play their best game WR's beating the man covers yeah oh boy long day for ND .. 

NATTY TALK

Previously played Jer Smith for Natty MVP before he had the MASSIVE game vs Oregon .. sorta expected he might have one .. and played again right after for the 7.5-1 .. at 3.5-1 now its wayyy too low with so soooo many guys who could break the game wide open for a massive standout game .. Didn't post but I also got Egbuka 35-1 and Tate 100-1 for a few bucks .. we saw Henderson's ability to land a big play but he's oft limited by Judkins and they split the reps very very evenly .. Judkins is also their shorter hard driving yards go to guy likely to pick up the short TD's like he did vs Texas ..  

Horns played a zone heavy coverage like they have been all year and the order of the day was don't let Jeremiah Smith be targeted .. Howard hit some great passes to Tate and Egbuka .. ND in press man coverage though and J-SMITH might be a dude that is juuuust uncoverable we don't quite know how that will play out .. we can however look to just last year for some idea .. ND/OSU Marvin Harrison 1200 Yds on the year .. only 32 yds that game no deep balls and had their best CB's covering him .. Egbuka as #2 WR back then did still manage 96 yds vs what was a great coverage unit last year .. Egbuka been getting plenty of targets in every game this year proven he can get thru ND's D last year when Freeman put a plan to stop their very strong #1 WR Harrison .. UT gave themselves a decent change to win by limiting Smith .. Oregon did not .. you bet there's a plan coming and let's trust Egbuka to get his targets and yards this game .. I also like the idea of this because Egbuka is an OSU lifer and here he is ending the journey its fitting as a program they find ways to get him the ball and potentially boost his draft stock as he coulda transferred like other WR's did and been a true feature WR and coulda gone pro last year, stayed on to finish the job for the team .. J-SMITH true Fr and Carnell Tate True Soph have more moments to come .. 

You can get 49.5 at ESPN -134 but laying twice the juice for 4 yards .. gunna x the fingers ... 

Wouldn't blame anyone for taking Egbuka for the Natty MVP either seeing like 15-1's out there as noted I'm already there 35-1 .. 

Very tough to imagine they also don't give him a real look for a TD maybe give him or T-Henderson first dibs if possible .. 

PROP

RECEIVING

E.EGBUKA OVER 53.5 (MGM)

And similar idea to Egbuka we have TreVeyon Henderson another Buckeyes LIFER on his final year .. Led the team rushing as a FR w a 1200 yd breakout season .. Was splitting with Myan Williams in '22 but injured after 8 games and had to sit out the UGA semifinal game .. missed a few games last year also .. and hung on with the bucks while they brought in another top dude RB in Judkins with a clear goal of winning the Natty but he will He will depart having never beat Michigan .. The calls have been fairly distrubuted between Jud and T-HEN and T can get a TD receiving or rushing .. we saw Jud get the 2 easier ones near the goal last game T-HEN scored on the amazing screen play .. There is juuuust noooo wayyyyy they are not bending over backward to line up Henderson for a TD in this game .. harder to predict for Egbuka but I would expect they dial up a solid TD look for him too .. 

PROP

SCORING

T.HENDERSON ANY TD +100 (FAN)

NATTY
OHIO STATE WIN +115
OHIO ST -7 (FAN HYPO)

PROPS

NATTY MVP
O.MVP JER SMITH 24-1
O.MVP JER SMITH  7.5-1
D.MVP TJ TUIMOLOAU 7-1
D.MVP CODY SIMON 7.5-1

RUSH
R.LEONARD UNDER 37.5

TM TOTAL
NOTRE DAME UNDER 17.5

NATTY TALK .. 

Far and away most reliable thing in this game is that Buckeyes DL should control the trenches and cause disruptions if not outright havoc .. ND has to make the most of their rec targets, the OC no doubt will see Horns had success getting the ball out quickly and they MUST do that .. I don't see a real path for ND's run game to lead the way here they've been more/less bottled up twice now .. Leonard might still be the go-to in short yardage but huge risk letting him get hit by these guys .. you saw Arch come in one play last game and I think he mighta got concussed / lucky his hand was just touching the ball as he hit the ground cuz it was on its way out and he had the 'where am i' look after making such a huge first down for the team no cheering at all .. Reilly might have played thru one of those last game but he takes a tough hit in this game you could see a scenario where they allow Angeli to take over again and maybe for entire game .. Think they have to play risk/reward with Reilly and limit him to just picking up the short yds .. close game late Reilly might take his own risks but even w no sacks he might not hit his rush total .. if Bucks D gets home .. eesh .. might need 50+ yds rushing just to come close .. 

PROP RUSH YDS 

REILLY UNDER 37.5 RUSH (FAN) 

Seeing some Defensive MVP odds out there now .. we saw TJ TUI go GAME WRECKING last week vs UT with 2 sacks, one hurry, 5 stops on D .. Capt Jack is +150 for obvious reasons it feels way wayyyy too short of odds expecting he'll get the game winning strip sack scoop n 90 yd TD score again .. Caleb Downs is +250 and while he's such a key piece of the D functioning he doesn't oft have the MVP stats to show for it .. Cody Simon at 7.5-1 is another I'd consider he had MVP worthy games vs Oregon and Indiana with multiple sacks big stops and forced fumbles ..  If the game is not on the line again let's go w the guy that can wreeek the most havoc for the odds we're getting .. think thats TJT .. Local book has these up but must be getting them from somewhere else .. shop around for sure on these wherever they are widely avail .. 

Note that TJT did have a bad ankle late in the game but was taped up and kept going .. I suspect he get's summit fever in the natty and plays right thru any lingering ailments if there are any .. but something to note .. 

PROP DEFENSIVE MVP .. 

D.MVP TJ TUIMOLOAU 7-1
D.MVP CODY SIMON 7.5-1

Horns great job getting the ball out quick and scoring from distance throwing to their RB on those wheel routes .. they also hit their great REC TE on a few plays .. I suspect this will be much tougher with less threatening WR's and we know OSU's RZ D is extremely tough to score on .. I found one for -105 wouldn't be dying to lay over -110 for that .. think there's a risk OSU could be well ahead and maybe see some of the 2nd string D in there which gave up a late score to Tenn ... 

Call it a prop considering the smaller amount ..

NOTRE DAME TT UNDER 17.5

SEMI RECAP / NATTY TALK

PSU sheesh once again able to muck the game up in a way they could pull the win off at the end .. PSU WR's somehow finished with negative 3 yds and Allar just had nowhere to go .. we knew their WR's weren't very good and wallah and Allar didn't help them at all with his arm .. T.WAR looked like a total VIKING out there just mauling little kids with a battle axe .. we had a few chances to get the 'any TD' but allar short armed one into triple coverage lol and all those other plays with him lining up in Wildcat never really got there .. t'was the right idea though there were only so many ways they coulda scored he was the only non RB option .. also knew PSU would find themselves in situations where PSU would need a first down and Allar would have nobody to throw to and have to tuck it, even w a couple sacks that one landed easy enough .. 

Can't take anything away from ND's win we figured they'd be on the ropes and 'off a beat' in this game and you saw it first half PSU's ground attack gashing em and run D playing tough, pressure getting to leonard .. the 'dinged up' team seemingly getting more and more injured / Reilly heading to the concussion tent .. but holy smokes did they snap out of it literally on the final H1 drive when Leonard went out and came out firing in H2 .. they got the HEART OF A CHAMPION AWARD locked up .. 

OSU I thought had such a massive offensive drought with much of it from penalty killing drives .. the personal foul and various others .. then a pick then got stopped on 3rd n short .. a MAJOR problem all year for them I show them being in 3rd and 1-3 yard situations at one of the highest rates over 4 times / game and under 50% conversions .. thus this situation alone basically kills 2 drives per game if they don't roll the dice on 4th down .. Bucks MUST have an answer in this game to punching short yardage esp near the goal line .. Texas' D still did play a very solid game they play zone coverage and the big passees early from Howard were absolute precision bombs a split second later they're broken up or worse .. that didn't last all game and Horns covered up J-SMITH pretty well and had a really good pass rush, held bucks run game down decently well .. 

OSU DL is beyond championship level ELITE triple diamond platinum status and controlled the whole game on that side .. bringing pressure made things very very tough for Ewers and while he probably gets run outta town his gamer ability gave them the only chance they had .. they had success getting the ball out early and solid WR's helps with that .. Leonard doesn't quite have that and he's gotta be gamer level 1000 this week and kinda do it all to get them down the field again .. Huge for Horns to have had the TD's come outside the redzone as Bucks RZ D is almost unbeatable and struck big once again from the 1 yd line .. this seems like another potential problem for ND if they are dinkin n dunkin and think you'll see them basically take their shots on goal from distance in this gm and w kicker proven reliable in the playoffs maybe we see them opt for FG's with the game in the balance .. 

SEMI'S .. EESH .. PSU .. HOW .. 

SEMI FINAL
PENN STATE +1.5 
PENN STATE -7.5  in-gm .. why did i do that .. 

SEMI PROPS
Q.WISNER U69.5 RUSH YDS 
D.ALLAR OVER 11.5 RUSH -112 
Q.EWERS U242.5 PASS YDS 
T.WARREN ANY TD -105 

@robtri

 Eh well that guy healthy wasn't the problem .. Drew Allar healthy was the problem .. EESH .. 

IN-GM

PENN STATE -7.5

Halftime live line -7.5 .. see notes above really felt like ND might be in a tough spot here with PSU off easy lead in and ND off B2B max efforts and quirky schedule .. we're seeing the team that was dinged up already kinda falling apart .. eh fine .. I hit this -2.5 earlier and eh why not taking -7.5 and let's go .. quick stop and FEED THE VIKING for a score and think its reallly tough for ND to catch up .. 

Not much offense .. PSU gotta keep feeding VIKING the ball .. esp maybe around the goal line where its been a little tricky for em to get a friggin yard .. and maybe let Allar run for like 7 more yards!!! they do that they win this easy lol 

PROPS

T.WARREN ANY TD -105 (FAN)

D.ALLAR OVER 11.5 RUSH -112 (FAN)

Tyler Warren unstoppable and the GO TO guy anytime they get near a TD .. we saw Drew Allar vs very good OSU D get sacked a few times but running the ball was a big part of the game .. ended 10 att's including the sacks but ended up +30 yards .. little more stability back there and we might get this much easier .. Def expect PSU to use all the tools in the belt here and Drew's ground game is one they will need picking up first downs .. good luck!

Like those and nice to see we ended up a step ahead when we posted this play PSU now the fav .. for now .. gulp lol .. LET'S GOOO!

SEMI FINAL
PENN STATE +1.5

@Stress

Can't disagree its def adding up for everyone at this point .. the diff tho is PSU really wasn't in much of a critical moment for any of the last 2 games kinda just taking care of business easiest path to this point .. BY FAR .. and ND every play had to be max effort one week ago .. such a MASSIVE WIN for them .. and the Indy game yeah very much a BRING IT game .. 

Will ND be a little "off" the top of their game idk, is there anything to point to historically that tells us what to expect in this spot? .. no ... we're in total rarified air, everyone exploring and pioneering best ways to handle their own very unique playoff scenarios .. im just going with my spidey senses at this point .. good luck STRESS!

@Mskeets

Pre-ssn was so good you can go back to the link below / last page .. that was for week 0/1 with all the plays together but the write ups and preview stuff was all posted was BRIDGE PRE-SSN thread i just put week 1/0 below for ya . 

idk the % return cpu died this year lost my workbook on exact numbers but here's the gist of the pre-ssn future plays Games of the year, futures, etc and I'm estimating on units won/lost .. there's a few things I didn't post and not all of em came up aces like the stuff I posted .. would also say the year was beyond freak lotta luck and would be very very unlikely I'll duplicate that kinda success across all the different pre-ssn futures plays like that ever again .. but for fun yeah net net the stuff posted was a totally INSANE like +40 ish units .. 

GAME OF THE YEAR
BRIDGE PLAYS 3-1.. +2 units .. 
SMALLER 8-3-1 .. +3 units

RSW SSN WINS 13-1 .. +12 units

CONF WIN
ASU 100-1 +10 units ..

CONF HEDGES net net +4 units
SMU +2 Unit
IOWA ST +1 Unit
SAM HOU +1 Unit
G.SO +1 Unit
INDY +1 Unit
Total Loser Duds maybe -4 units

HEISMAN 
I had Hunter 75-1 it was +7.5 units no hedge out I had a jeanty ticket I didn't post .. 
Heisman losers maybe -1.5 units total .. 

NATTY
SMU 500-1 .. hedged first round w Penn St prob nabbed +1 unit out of it ..

SSN PROPS .. bet 2 units net net think it lost -1.5 units .. 

MICHIGAN GOY Parlay Fade 12-1 .. it lost but I hedged vs OSU and it netted +2 units .. 

https://www.covers.com/forum/college-football/bridge-plays-week-1-103868951/2

@Mskeets

Yeah don't let me talk you out of what you're doing I mean you're watching and you have an opinion you like it .. play it .. the most learning I get is when I can just see how this should play out and I watch the game and say oh no that's diff or yeah spot on etc.. whenever I tail I just watch the game and all I learn is whether I was happy or mad that I tailed lol ..  and my bowl record is 10-10 I could say 'well yeah but hey we killed it on CLV!!' and of course I'd rather have that than not but that's just classic loser talk ..

can't disagree ND been money in the trenches the back end of the D realllly allows the front to have more guys stuffing the run .. Mich kinda the opposite they're so stout with the DL that they can put more back in coverage .. that's how one might go about being OSU .. but a major advantage putting more guys in one spot because yer so elite good in other spots .. and yeah then PSU realllllllly needs good play calling they have a great OC I think its a huge test in this game .. and the QB to not make any dumb mistakes .. 

The couple things I think we might see hamper ND is think they probably are the more dinged up team most grueling high level play right now and yeah as noted above the time off for PSU feels like an advantage / the shorter time for ND and travel makes me wonder if we don't see them off a beat in this one .. and beating UGA was so huge and historical for them they burned their sneak attack special teams play they showed us exactly what they're max effort is vs a very strong team .. will all that catch up and we see them on their heels a bit more in this one idk .. but it wouldn't surprise me .. 

@TRAIN69

Good luck buddy yeah hearing now Abdul Carter a real GTD .. really want that guy in there .. 

It does feel overall like ND has been a pretty dinged up tho and here we are game 15 high level comp .. and idk maybe no actual impact as everyone has B2B roadies this week but PSU had a legit 2 extra days off and their schedule wasn't thrown off by the sugar bowl delay they got to watch their opponent comfortably .. ND got home I assume Thursday evening and then flew out Tuesday afternoon so like 7 or 8 days on the road and 4-5 at home depending how you look at it  .. PSU got home the other Tuesday and also left Tuesday .. does that matter idk maybe time together = team bonding always in the zone mentally .. it does feel like the quirkiness of it all would tend to catch up with a team at one point or another .. that was actually a concern with UGA will they be a off one beat after alllll the time off, new QB, etc.. then its ready set oh shoot terrorist attack please wait another day .. did that play a part idk but did feel like something was not quite right w them .. 

good luck traiiiiin .. 

@Newtons Law

Yeah not a new problem for ND they had claypool and the TE guy a few guys years ago but yer right never really had the OC's or QB's to attract the good WR's there .. they finally bag a big name QB in Hartman but same issue no great targets to throw at and OC plucked to Bama last min and stuck w the TE coach being OC .. that guy was OC at WV and the offense was a horror show really bad sitch LY and it showed Hartman pre ssn top heisman sure thing high draft choice and then predictably tough year w their pass game and WR's all bail out pre-bowl game .. and Sammy goes UFA and practice squad... its the kinda feel bad story that every other coach is gunna point out to QB and WR recruits and portal prospects ..  

All that said tho they are a better team than they've been and have the OL's TE's, RB's still and Freeman has built a D that can challenge maybe any offense and considering the injuries getting dinged up he's got real depth there .. hiring Denbrock at OC and at least performing well passing at QB with what they have and making a playoff run is sooo huge .. LSU was a truly elite offensive juggernaut under him and looking around this year there's nothing close to what he had with that team sans maybe what we saw from OSU the last 2 games and don't think they'd hold up vs them this year if they beat Penn St .. but potentially a MASSIVE KEY can be turned by ND's offense next year and maybe just need a couple more DUDEs in the door .. not easy but I'd imagine they have plenty of funds coming in to make another natty run next year and recruiting pitch basically writes itself total script flipper from before with an OC that's pitched elite level offense with the right guys and already shown they aren't far off with the non elite QB/WR's they have now and yeah really like the potential there .. good luck!