BritBull

Group D: Italy-Uruguay

Italians sit on 3 points after playing in a typical Italian manner & losing to a weaker opponent while playing better vs a stronger one. Prandell likely going back to 3-5-2 with Immobie partnering Balotelli upfront. I already said I expect them to scrape through the group stage and a draw today fits that scenario perfectly.

Uruguay were totally unprepared for Costa Rica, but managed to give themselves a shot at he 2nd round with the win vs England they didn't exactly earn. Two moments of brilliance by Suarez is what it took to keep them in the tournament. I didn't expect to see him even semi fit, but Tabarez not putting him in vs CR to get a bit of extra rest now looks like a great move.

This the same situation as in Mex-Cro game yesterday. A cagey match is expected, but it can also turn to a fully open one if/when someone scores. A text book coin flip game.

The pubic likes Italy & over.

These guys were posting in my threads for months while my bets were free, I made them all big money or did you forget I won 60%+ of my bets on over 400 that I posted here?? After I stopped posting, I continued where I left off & finished the season without a losing month & above 60%. And now I'm destroying the WC like I said I will. What should they do, tell me to go *uck some *ock???

Group D: Costa Rica-England

Costa Rica has been the huuuuge surprise so far. They have shown how playing good as a team is more important than reputation or overrated names. Their counter attack has been working like a charm & there's no reason why this should suddenly stop. They will be rotating the squad for the last game, but I'm sure the bench guys know how to play their game.

England have also been somewhat of a surprise, but in a negative way of course. Although by game play, they deserved a draw vs Italy & even probably vs Uruguay. Godgson has announced he will rotate practically the whole 11, with just Sturridge & Cahil keeping their place.

IMO, only the Gods know what coaches could be trying out today, especially with all the rotations, making this a friendly effectively.

Odds on this game have been all over the place & the public is predictably sitting on England & over.

Thanks Gogic & Casey.

For the rest of you, please read what I already said on page 2 regarding the matter.

Group A: Croatia-Mexico

There's no point in writing separate analysis for these two teams as the performed exactly the same in way. The Mexicans were a bit luckier and come into the clash needing just a point to make it to  the next round. In regards to their performance on the pitch, they were both between a draw & a loss vs Brasi and both easily bear Cameroon.

Kovac will likely mix some things up, Vrsaljko could be starting at LB & a classical DM in Vukojevic could also be in the starting 11. If Vukojevic starts, Rakitic will move to the offensive midfielder, where he's been killing off opponents for Sevilla last season & that could be the piece they have been missing.

I doubt Mexico will change their 5-3-2 since it's been working so well for them. The back line was shaky on a few occasions, but they haven't conceded thus far. On the other side, Peralta could be a big problem for Croatia's CDs as they aren't the fastest out there.

This seems like a coin flip game, but the Corats have a horrible streak of not playing up to expectations in the group deciders, far worse than Mexico's bad record vs Europeans(they only need a draw after all).

Croatia opened as marginal favs but the public is all over Mexico & they are now marginal favs as I'm writing this.

Group A: Brasil-Cameroon

Brasil haven't been playing great but did enough to top the group if they win today. TBH, they were closer to a draw vs Croatia than they were against Mexico, but Ochoa pulled off some great saves & it finished 0-0. Neymar is their key player & everything revolves around him. Fred has shown nothing so far and hopefully Jo will be starting from now on.

Cameroon didn't get trashed vs Mexico thanks to some refs mistakes, but they did get trashed vs Croatia. No Etoo, complete disarray in all their lines, players fighting among each other.... you get the picture. No Assou-Ekotto either after the incident in the previous game.

The line opened at Brasil -2 & has been climbing up the whole day up to -2.5 as I'm writing this as noone gives the Africans any chance at all. The public is already 0-4 today, so they might be due for a win.

Group B: Holland-Chile

Holland played terrific game vs Spain & did enough in the let down spot vs Australia. Now they are in a great position to win the group & play the winner of Cro/Mex game in the next round. They have been one of a few European team that didn't underperform thus far. Van Gaal has been playing to this team's strengths, although it could've been so different if Spain went 2-0 up in the opener. But you need luck to be on your side to make a result here, just look at B&H and how things can go terribly wrong when you don't have it. Van Persie is suspended.

Chile continued where they left off in 2010. WC & the ghost of Bielsa is still with this team. They are a little bit more balanced this time round, but attack first is still their moto. They play a nice, fast, technically sound game & showed they can also press when without the ball. They had some stuff go their way, but when you see a team play like this it would be a shame if it didn't. Originally I thought they will be an easy task for Brasil In the next round, now things have somewhat changed. Vidal is questionable today.

This game has coin flip written all over it IMO. Chileans will again have the home atmosphere and if you watched the singing of their national anthem before the Spain game you know what I'm talking about(if not take a look at it, one of the better WC moments).

Holland opened as marginal favs, but with just a point giving them 1st place in the group & the great Chilean performances, it's not hard to see why the worldwide public is all over Chile.

Gropup B: Australia-Spain

Australians played 2 fighting games & had their chances to take something from them, but lost both in the end are just playing for pride. Cahill is out which is a blow for them since they don't have a player on the bench that can fill his shoes. But they coped with Franjic loss better than expected, although it's one thing to repplace a RB & completely another to replace your main scoring threat.

Spain fell fell apart in the game vs Holland & even failed to score vs Chile. Costa obviously hasn't gelled with the rest of the squad yet. Some of the old guys lack motivation. Fabregas hasn't been happy with how he's been treated & was told to leave the last training session. Overall a total mess.

The Ausies are coming into the game a big dogs and will try the fighting approach once again, they have nothing to lose. On the other hand guys like Koke & Cazorla are expected to start & make amends for the poor performances from their team mates.

The money has been coming in on Australia & Spain -1 which opened at -140 will see a 30-40 cent move against them by game time. The over odds are also going down, but not as heavily.

Soccer ML isn't the same as baseball, simple as that. What you are taking about is called DNB(draw no bet) or +0 asian handicap.

Group G: USA-Portugal

USA was very lucky to get all 3 points in their opening game. Dempsey scored in the opening minute & after that all they did was defend. Although Ghana left plenty of open space USA did nothing & got punished late as Gana got the goal they deserved. But the football Gods were on USA side & they snatched a late winner. Klinsmann hasn't shown anything new with this team & they played poorly for the better part of 90 minutes. Now a point should be enough to see them through to the next round & I'd be surprised if they won't set up very defensively again. Altidore is out.

Portugal got trashed by Germany & lost about half of their starting 11 in the process. Ronaldo should play but his fitness is questionable. Their bench is deep, but the big question is how a well can they play together as the starters for tonight's game have never played in a single game in circumstances like this.

Group H: South Korea- Algeria

Algeria played a great 1st half vs Belgium as Halihodzic prepared and set up his team perfectly to cause problems for Belgium & I'm sure even the special one was *erking off when they took the lead. Unfortunately they couldn't keep that up for the full 90 minutes & now have to win this game if they don't want to start packing their suitcases. Their 4-3-3 with the ball was transferring into 5-5-0 without it, dropping their forwards extremely deep & they probably won't repeat the exact same thing, but it's not like they can change much.

SK played a decent opener, even slightly better than expected too. They weren't very dangerous in the final 3rd of the pitch, but with Akinfeev looking so shaky they didn't need to be. Although set up for counter attacking football, they weren't as quick or direct as I expected them to be, mainly due to a lot of dribbling they were doing.

IMO the Korean back line looked worse than the Algerian one. They packed all their players in a space of 20-25m working pretty good as a unit. I can see Halihodzic pulling another surprise out of the hat & have Son man marked for 90 minutes (or at least doubled up). How Korea will respond if that happens is a huge question mark, but either way they will most likely have more of possession and I can't see a creative midfielder on their roster that can "carve up" the opposition.

Group H: Belgium-Russia

The Belgium team had a scare i their first game when Algeria played a perfect 45 minutes, but couldn't hold on when Wilmots started to mix things up in the 2nd half. The Algerian bunker tactics were exposed when Belgium kicked into higher gear when Mertens & Fellaini came on. They will again set up in a 4-2-3-1 & with Russia not playing 10 men behind the ball, it will be easier for them to make something happen. Right now they cold probably use Benteke, as Lukaku is better when he has space & that showed in the first game, but he isn't there so no point in looking at "what ifs".

Russia didn't do a good job in their first match, but they did deserve a draw i the end. Akinfeev was shaky from the first minute & eventually made a huge mistake. I don't expect him to play as badly again, he's should be one of the better keepers on the tournament(at least o paper). There were a few surprises in the starting 11, but Capello wants to do this in an old Italian school way.

Both teams will be happy with a draw, with Korea/Algeria on deck, but I do expect Belgium to have a better game as Russia will play defensively, but won't park the bus. Belgium would be foolish not to put some shots on target early & check on how Akinfeev is doing today.

Group F: B&H-Nigeria

B&H played well in hte opening 45 minutes vs Argentina & deserved to go into the break with a lead, but it was the other way round due to the early own goal. The 2nd half wasn't nearly as impressive & the Messi goal killed them off. They have a nice team, but they could also underestimate Nigeria. Many things will depend on how Susic will set up his tactics, a change back to their 4-4-2 is expected here.

Nigeria didn't look good vs Iran, but we saw Argentina having (big) problems vs Iran also. B&H won't put 10 men behind the ball which will give them more space, but as already mentioned they don't have a creative midfielder & that's their biggest flaw.

Neither defense is the better part of their team with B&H having a good man between the posts, while Nigeria have some question marks around their keeper.

Unless some weird tactical idea from the coaches changes everything(like Low putting 4 CDs in the back line vs Ghana !?!?), we should see a good game. Dzeko & Ibisevic can be a threat to anyone & the Nigerians will have their chances too.

B&H is still in a good position to qualify for the next round even if they get a draw, after Argies manged to beat Iran earlier today.

Group G: Germany-Ghana

Germany had a good vs Portugal, but 4-0 was a bit too much. Nevertheless, they are looked the best of the largely disappointing Europeans. 4-2-3-1 with a false 9 was the choice in the first game & it will most likely be again. They were playing a bit more directly than I expected them to & Muller on the wing with Ozil i the center was a nice tactical surprise.

Ghana lost the first game vs USA, but deserved a point (at least). USA scored after 26 seconds and that of course changed the whole flow of the game, but they were looking very open for counters, but USA played total defense & weren't interested to even cross the midfield line.

There is a quality gap between the teams but not as big as the line suggests. Although if the Germans score early this could again finish 4-0.

Group F: Argentina-Iran

The Argies played a weird first game. Sabella decided on a 5-3-2(3-5-2) formation to open the game & it was B&H who should've led at the half. 2nd half saw him switch back t their usual 4-3-3 & they (completely) controlled the game as B&H couldn't do much, although they did finally score late in the game. The 4-3-3 will surely be their starting formation vs Iran.

Iran played well against a somewhat limited Nigerian team, who as expected had problems due to the lack of a creative midfielder. Their back line was shaky on occasion, but overall, did a decent job. The team played nicely together & even had some chances to snatch more than a point. It's hard imagining them setting up any different for today's game.

The class difference is huge obviously & it will be down to how Argentina approach this game. I'm sure everyone in their camp already has the 3 points penciled into their tally & I wouldn't be surprised if they underestimate Iran somewhat. On the other hand although Messi doesn't look on top of his game, he will be much happier playing in a 4-3-3 from the 1st minute. Argentina will once again have huge support from the stands, playing a home game effectively.

Group E: Honduras-Ecuador

Honduras were completely outplayed in the firs game & the red card didn't help either. As a result Palacios is out today & he's probably their best player. They won't approach this in the ultra defensive match like the first one but if they lose, they are out.

Ecuador had some good moments in their first game, but nowhere near enough to even earn a draw. Now they are supposed to be a huge fav for some reason I don't get it. They aren't a power house, not even in the same neighbourhood TBH. They have some quality advantage, but just because all the SA teams have been overperforming it doesn't mean it will continue in every game.

If this game was played in Ecuador I'd understand the -1 line, but it isn't. The end.

Group E: Switzerland-France

The French had an easy game in the first round, but even though they played vs 10 men for the better part of the match they were dangerous 11 on 11 & IMO it was just a matter of time when they will score and secure the points. No changes to the line up for them probably.

I expected more from Switzerland TBH. They won 2-1 & had a goal wrongfully disallowed, but the way they performed was far from impressive. Their flanks, left one especially were almost one way traffic in the wrong direction. Xhaka also wasn't doing a good job(in both directions). Shaqiri looked completely out of form. The back line looked shaky. All of these guys do lack the experience of WC finals, but it looked to be more than just that. Hitzfeld seems to agree with me & Mehemedi will replace Stocker and Seferovic could also start.

From a math point of view, both teams will be happy with draw, France a little bit more because of better goal difference, but both have games with "lesser" opposition left in the last round. Swiss team will have to pull of an "Uruguay" & press high for 90 minutes if they want to win this one, but I doubt they will be playing that way. It's more likely that Hitzfeld will choose to put men behind the ball, let Frances back line have the ball & try to shorten the pitch, as this was his first option vs (much) stronger opposition in the past.

Watching England vs Italy reminded me of Liverpool games last season, which isn't a surprise considerin Gerrard, Sterling & Sturrage were in the starting line up. In hard conditions that were in Manaus, they played well & it was IMO the lack of experience that cost them the game. The speed of their forward line is amazing & so far I haven't seen a back line that could contain them for 90 minutes. On the other hand their back line was a bit shaky on occasion.

Uruguay looks to be a team on the way down, but even considering that they played a below par game vs Costa Rica. Suarez still isn't fit & they have some injury problems with their CDs which could be a good thing for them as they were pretty shaky in the first game( the prep games too) & Muslera hasn't been brimming with confidence either, but I've seen them play up to their opposition too many times to just write them off.

Both teams need the points after losing the first game, although England look to be in much better position if they draw here. England with the H2H edge in WC finals, but those games were so long ago hardly anyone remembers they were even played.

So it looks like this game will be down to how well the English contain Cavani because Forlan is nowhere near what he used to be & with Uruguay being tactically way below Italy it will take some individual class to make something happen.

Just transfer the odds in % and add them up. Anything that's left over 100% is the books vig.... in your case it looks like 5% roughly which is also roughly the industry average these days.

Group C: Colombia-Ivory Coast

The Colombians had an easy task vs Greece in the first game, but thing also went their way with the early goal. They won 3-0, but haven't played remarkable well. It was more a case of Greece not showing up really. Some injury issues are still present with Bacca still out, but Guarin is back & should start. Although it wasn't a magical game from them, they shown they aren't a one man team & that no Falcao isn't as big of a problem as expected. The support from  the stands was great & all SA teams are practically playing home games. This was the first WC game for all of these guy & the learning curve will have to be steep for the success to continue.

IC was nowhere to be seen for the fist 2/3 of the game vs Japan, then Droghba came on & everything changed. They scored 2 in space of 2 minutes, from crosses from the right which looked like carbon copies of each other. It's still a question weather Droghba will be starting today, the rest we saw was pretty much the best they have.

Both teams should be happy with point today, which will most likely result in a slightly more cautious approach from them. Both teams will again look to exploit the flanks, but both should also be prepared for the other one trying to do that. I can't understand all the love for IC I'm seeing, but they can hardly play any worse than their first game.

I said it many times, the African teams are so far the biggest disappointment IMO, so there's no way I could  pull a trigger on them below +1. No H2H between the two, but Pekermann has beaten IC at the helm of Argentina in '06. IC is 6-1 over in their 7 finals games.