brn2loslive2win

@Raiders22

 You are correct about elite QBs drawing penalties. First of all, part of what makes them great is their intelligence level. Intelligent people naturally find a way to take advantage of a favorable situation (kind of like successful gamblers!). So when Mahomes stops dead in his tracks right next to the boundary hoping to get thrown out of bounds, and gets the call, it’s not always a bad call. It’s more elite level qb play. 

You refer to Tom Brady. Him and many other greats always tried to throw the ball at the penalty. If a guy is being held, throw the ball to him. What better way to get the ref to see it? While most average QBs look for another target, maybe take a sack and then throw their hands in the air and point to the receiver being held. The great ones get the call because they are smart enough to force the referees eyes to it.

It’s just kind of the way the world works. I don’t know if you play any golf, but you’ll notice that the best golfers are always the luckiest ones. 

Regardless of all of this, there is a simple solution to the poorly called penalties. Replay review, overturn the call, and all is forgiven and forgotten. For some reason the NFL continues to punish its fans.

@vanzack

 Now that is the Vanzack we all know and leach off 

I can’t believe any grown man comes on here and posts this…

For anyone that lost on their KC bet- you are to blame. If you bet the game at -9 or -9.5 you fucked up, plain and simple. 8.5/8 was sitting right in front of your face all week. The only reason you would ever wait that late to bet the game is if you were planning to take Houston. Congrats to Hou +9.5 and KC -8.5! The game was a gamblers dream!

Dont forget Laura Rutledge 

@Raiders22

 Great response and I appreciate it. Some of you guys on here are brilliant with the advanced metrics and I’m doing my best to learn as much as possible. This is the reason I continue to surf around covers. You and the guys like yourself are like gold to me. Thank you again. 

Is there any specific place that you go to to find WAR, PAR, etc.?

@kcblitzkrieg

 Ron Torbert’s crew is horrendous normally.

@Raiders22

 Great write up. I was going to bet KC early in the week, but I’ve gathered enough information over the last two days to feel confident that Houston is the right side. I hate the fact that I’m backing CJ on the road in a cold weather game, but I have the line on the game between KC -3.5 and KC-6. I cant gather any information from anywhere including about a dozen power ratings that show KC being 8 points better than Houston.

Can you explain, if you get a chance what WAR is again? And why you value it so much personally? I recall you bringing up these numbers multiple times in previous conversations.

@charlielo55

 This is a bold statement. In my opinion it’s the only game not worth betting this weekend. Of all the information I’ve taken in and all of the power rankings I’ve gone through I haven’t seen anybody with a significant edge on either side. Just my two cents. GL 

interesting. After going over the Kc game with a different method I came to KC -5.5 

@justliketoplay

 I’ve spent years betting football by essentially guessing on winners and I know that for me, that wasn’t the answer. Every serious bettor should have some sort of power rating or other method of at least making their own line on a game using actual data/stats. It was a rough season for myself and many others simply because most handicappers aren’t making lines for the games that indicate favorites/road favorites covering at the rate that they did this season. GL to you sir 

Funny though, on a sports betting forum, I rarely find anyone on here that will say or compare the lines that they have made for the games…

Here’s what I’ve come up with so far-

KC -8

Det -3.5

Phi -3.5

Buf -pk

Major discrepancy in the Det/Was game for me. Detroit is no doubt the better team playing at home…but not by 9 points. I have Detroit with a 2.5 point advantage on offense, but Washington a 1.5 point advantage on defense. Slight home field advantage for Detroit just because of how well they have performed at home. Shouldn’t count for much IMO as it’s an indoor game and I expect Was to play well. Which coach will ruin the game?

Phi/LAR is an interesting one and tough to cap. Bottom line is this- Jalen Hurts has to play well as a QB. He doesn’t have to be great, but he’ll have to make some throws. If Barkley goes off this is a tough one for the Rams. The Rams are going to have to play well in an outside stadium in a hostile environment. If they can keep Stafford upright and get the WRs going a little, this could be a 3 point game.

 In the other two games I can’t find an edge so far. I’ve got another method of creating my own lines but I won’t be finished until tomorrow. Let’s see what you guys come up with.

I think it’s safe to say that had he just thrown the ball out of bounds instead of taking all the sacks these past two weeks, he could’ve made a case for a much better paycheck. When another team watches those plays, those are the ones that stick with them. Every qb fumbles and throws interceptions, but there are currently rookies in the league that know better than to hold the ball that long. Holding the ball is a qb disease, and usually a lifelong problem. You either get it or you don’t, and Sam just doesn’t get it.

The league gets harder and harder to handicap with every dogshit quarterback and every psychotic head coach. One thing you cannot predict is what a poor coaching decision is going to do to your wager. Clock management, timeouts, play calling, when to kick fgs and when to go… the list goes on and it gets worse every year. I’ve seen, on multiple occasions this year, a coach go for a two point conversion when it’s outcome has almost zero impact on the current game situation.

This has to be a joke…

Maybe more. The guy is terrified to step forward into the pocket. Rams had the blueprint after last week. There’s a reason that Sam Darnold has been a backup most of his career. What’s sad to me is that the “coach of the year” never put the backup in the game. Some may laugh at that comment, but at halftime you’d think that with the season on the line they would try anything.

that makes about 28/32 now. How do these guys manage to get these jobs?

lol what a clown. Did the same thing before halftime 

Which time? Correct answer- both