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Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
NO BET BUCS / FALCONS GL TO ALL
No writeup? |
vanzack | 139 |
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Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
Quote Originally Posted by spicycurry: @vanzack Look at the time of your posting and then look at what the saints line was then. At the time of your posting the saints was at +2 and a few +2.5, so you still gave yourself the better line with no vig as expected. And then now you’re just saying that because it went to +3 after the Kamara and Olave injury report came out? Nice try, you really are disingenuous! So let me state your hypothesis: I have posted for 25 years here. I have never taken a penny from anyone, and have turned down countless opportunities to tout. I promote giving to charity rather than giving to me.I have won 7 years straight, no matter what vig you assignI give out .25 lines to be even more precise and fairI promote good sports gambling habits for beginners and vets But I am disingenuous. What is my angle exactly? I would love to know. Just ask yourself a simple question.... If I wasn't betting this stuff myself, and making enough money doing it - wouldn't I do what every other "handicapper" does out there and take money? I am unbuyable. Why do you think that is? You cant please everyone. I suggest you just dont click on my threads if you dont like my recordkeeping. Go to the other threads, where you can get locks of the day by people who are here one day and gone the next, or when they have a good year they start charging 29.99 a pick because they would rather have 10 subscribers because they dont actually make money. I just think you and the other guy are never going to be happy knowing there is an honest person, who cant be bought, who wins, who gives it for free - and that it is your job to be the white knight of the online gambling community and bring me down. GL with that. This guy does seem to like the sound of his own voice. |
vanzack | 200 |
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Quote Originally Posted by KarmaStateU2024:
@vanzack I think a handful of the morons who like to diss you are bookies and they don't want your posts available to guys who bet with them. They think if they keep saying stupid things and questioning what you do, that it will drive you away. What other reason can they have for questioning a "no picks" post and other such silliness? Just ignore these trolls and know there are a lot of people who appreciate your efforts and willingness to share. If you're not on a game there is nothing to share. The guy craves attention. |
vanzack | 60 |
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Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
Quote Originally Posted by wmi799: @vanzack Yep. I appreciate any input you have Play? No play? All respected My input is this... The Cowboys have the WORST rushing defense in the NFL through 3 weeks (adjusted). They are 32nd, but the gap to 31st is huge. Thats how bad they have been against the run. Yes, they have faced the Ravens, the Saints, and the Browns - but even adjusted down for those offenses - they are terrible. When Daniel Jones has time because the running game is working, he is pretty good. So it all hinges on the Giants ability to run the ball - which they should be able to. That is the standout stat from this matchup. The Cowboys offense and Giants defense are pretty much a wash. It all comes down to if the Cowboys can stop the Giants running game. I have not taken a side yet because I cant get my number. But there is no reasonable number I would take the Cowboys here. A writeup on a game you're not betting on... |
vanzack | 60 |
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Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
NFL Season Record: +3.25 units TNF Cowboys / Giants: No bet Lean Giants, if line gets to +6 -110 it will be a 1.5 unit play for me, but officially it is a no bet for posting purposes. GL all. Way to take a stand. |
vanzack | 60 |
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replied to
Is there any reason New Orleans can't score 40+ points against mediocre Philadelphia team on short week?
in NFL Betting Quote Originally Posted by diondimucci:
I wanna take it, New Orleans and over, thanks Did you bet on the Saints in week 1 or 2, or are you jumping on the bandwagon in week 3? Total Joe Public move. |
diondimucci | 34 |
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replied to
Is there any reason New Orleans can't score 40+ points against mediocre Philadelphia team on short week?
in NFL Betting The problem is you're assuming the Saints are going to play exactly like they did the first two weeks. You should assume it's going to be tight and low scoring. |
diondimucci | 34 |
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"When someone clearly puts alot of time and effort into a write-up, anything for that matter, whether you agree or disagree, they should be commended for contributing, after all, that is the purpose of this forum, sharing information and opinions." He can collect his participation trophy at the end of the season. |
Ih8coldweather | 26 |
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Quote Originally Posted by SANCHILIPEPPER:
@C-70Blues "PROSPECTS ROCK"
I'm only a "prospect" on this site. My earliest NFL post-season memory was watching the Immaculate Reception live on tv as it happened. |
Ih8coldweather | 26 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Ih8coldweather:
@C-70Blues Here we go again! This guy loves following me, clearly has nothing better to do with his life. Dude get off my you n*** sack and go make your own thread!! Notice how everybody else seems to agree, except you. I would like to thank you for contributing absolutely nothing to the forum and thread.... And if I recall Mr. Big shot I believe you said you couldn't wait until playoffs where you would return and show us how its done, no? it isn't playoff time yet so you're quite early and clearly don't follow your own advice...
You're right I did say that. My plans changed by a week so this will be all until the playoffs but I do have one last comment. For all the long-winded writeups, for all the extra posts you made saying the exact same things you mentioned in previous posts (because you assume you're right), for all the pats on the back you seem to enjoy, and for all your guessing you went 1-4, including a BIG wager on Cleveland. Also, you need to stop talking about your 49ers future wager from last year because it lost. Almost doesn't count but you seem to keep mentioning it like it did. It didn't. If you want things to get better, start accepting your losses. Go back and find out why you we're wrong, learn from it, and try to come out on the winning end next time. All these people kissing your ass and commenting on how great your writeups are are doing you no favors. Joe Public doesn't know shit. See you in January. C-70 p.s. - You know how you can tell you're on the right side? When people are whole-heartedly disagreeing with you. |
Ih8coldweather | 26 |
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[Quote: Originally Posted by C-70Blues]Quote Originally Posted by Ih8coldweather: @C-70Blues I just realized you’re the same clown who was arguing with my on the other thread making fun of Rodgers and the Jets. like I said, anyone can bet chiefs to win SB at 5/1. It takes some research, variance, and balls/gamble to put serious money on a long shot future like the jets. I wasn't arguing with you about your Jets future wager. I just don't understand it for several reasons. 1) You're assuming the Jets defense is going to be just as good as last season. 2) You're assuming Aaron Rodgers is going to play like he did in 2010 (he is 1-4 in conference finals as a starter with his only win coming against the 2010 Bears, led by QB's Jay Cutler and Caleb Hanie). 3) Robert Saleh has yet to coach a playoff game and you have him winning the Super Bowl. (Personally, I don't trust any coach from the Kyle Shanahan coaching tree as he is a guy who should have 3 super bowl rings, one with Atlanta and two with San Fran, yet he has none).
If you remember, I made these points before the game, not after the fact. You make too many assumptions which is the opposite of handicapping. Good luck. |
Ih8coldweather | 35 |
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replied to
What one piece of advice do you give to someone new to handicapping/gambling?
in Penalty Box Quote Originally Posted by C-70Blues:
Accept your losses.
After seeing so many justifications for all the losses I am bumping this advice. |
C-70Blues | 141 |
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-Aaron Rodgers career record as a starter when defense allows fewer than 20 points is 81-10 -Since 2016 Rodgers record as a starter when defense allows fewer than 20 points is 35-2 (2023 Jets defense allowed 20.9 points/game) This means absolutely nothing. How many other quarterbacks have a great record when their defense allows fewer than 20 points??? |
Ih8coldweather | 35 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Ih8coldweather:
To those on this forum who have been doing this for a long time, please disregard the trolls. Those looking for instant gratification, the ones who think they can cap at 60-70% which isn't even real. Caping at above 53% means you can beat the vig and be a professional. The same idiots who don't understand bankroll management, and betting 1-3% of BR on a single game. Week one is notoriously difficult to cap. No matter how closely you follow a team, how much you pay attention during OTAs and camp, dissect the roster, read PFF grades, and follow trends, things happen. Let us reflect on what just happened in week 1..... 1. Bengals were a complete no show and lost to the Patriots. They turned the ball over, including a fumble by their TE at the goal line which would have otherwise won them the game. It wiped out 50% of most survivor pools 2. The Panthers picked up significant steam from sharp bettors who steamed up their season win total. Many believed that they were going to beat the Saints and long term, they projected that Dave Canales would resurrect Bryce Young's career, but. 3. Everyone and their mother was on Houston Texans -3. Look how that turned out? People still love Houston but that game could have EASILY gone either way and the Colts could have won that game. 4. It seemed that the overwhelming majority of the forum felt there was value on the Jets at +4.5. Their defense did not show up, and they lack major depth at defensive tackle. Quinnen Williams simply cannot do it on his own, he was facing double teams all day and the Niners were able to effectively run against the remaining D-line. Kinlaw, who was a 49er last year was getting blown off the ball. Their offense was predictable on first and second down, running the ball with little to no motion pre-snap and no mis-direction. These things will need to get corrected but to write off the Jets after one game is such a classic week 1 over-reaction and will allow others to buy high before they hit their stride as the season progresses. 5. Key injuries will sideline starters and that naturally will affect other teams in the NFL--Jordan Love MCL sprain, Rome Adunze ML, Rams losing their starting LT, Bucs being down to their 3rd string corner now facing a potent Lions passing offense....etc. etc. Point being - disregarding the trolls who are total amateurs. Resist the urge to give a knee jerk response based on any one game (especially season opener) where many starters haven't played in the pre-season and will need time to gel together. Remember that the NFL is a marathon and not a race....pace yourself, follow the games, take meticulous notes for games from the week prior, and adjust your position accordingly. "No matter how closely you follow a team, how much you pay attention during OTAs and camp, dissect the roster, read PFF grades, and follow trends, things happen." Eveything you mentioned in that sentence has nothing to do with capping the NFL. Once you figure that out you can move forward and stop trying to justify your losses. Remember the number one rule of handicapping - ACCEPT YOUR LOSSES. |
Ih8coldweather | 26 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Cupcaking:
The write up was fine. You don’t have to agree with the guys opinion. I didn’t agree with most of it, I was on the other side for my own reasons. But, at least the guy presented information and their reasoning. It’s a quality post, much higher than 90% of the garbage we see on here. So, everyone.. chill out Totally disagree. All he did was guess and he did not guess correctly. |
Ih8coldweather | 36 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Rayfr:
@anNFLfan
Who thinks he's a handicapper. |
Ih8coldweather | 36 |
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"Hard to even describe how many stats they have, things like route charts, blocking patterns - unreal stats. But even better is the filterable all 22 video of every play from every game" This sounds like information overload. Is it for fantasy football players or is it geared towards handicappers? |
vanzack | 37 |
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"Three of these games the road team, my team was comfortably ahead at half-time only for all of them to give it up in the second half," Forget the halftime score. The score at the end of the 3rd quarter tells you almost everything about the final outcome. |
Indigo999 | 51 |
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Thank you all for making my point for me. |
C-70Blues | 42 |
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Another way to spot a guesser. They post plays for the Thursday, Friday, Sunday and Monday night games. |
C-70Blues | 42 |
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