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replied to OVER/UNDER Calulations in NBA Betting Hey all, Honestly, after going 0-5 on Wednesday night, I'm going to head back and re-jig my system before continuing to post. That sort of a night should happen if I expect my totals to be right +60% of the time. There's something missing if that happens. I know its one night, but I gotta head back to the drawing board. Essentially, that should be a 1:100 night. Considering I've only been posting for 20 days or so, that's not cool. Good luck to all. Sorry about Wednesday! View Post \| View Thread	Calculationer	60	January 24, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to OVER/UNDER Calulations in NBA Betting Yeah, that was a lucky finish. It was still only 46% shooting combined for both teams, so the outcome of it being over isn't too crazy. I really like the NYK and Det games too. In fact, I'd say that I like all the games I outlined minus maybe the Atl game. Atlanta seems to be a team that shoots at a ridiculous fg% every third game. We'll see which Atlanta team show up today. View Post \| View Thread	Calculationer	60	January 22, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to OVER/UNDER Calulations in NBA Betting Went 1-0 last night. If I had played all the games, would've gone 4-1, but that's all good. I'm feeling much stronger about my picks and the plan now that I am only playing certain games that fit the set critera. Last night: 1-0 Overall: 13-8-1 = 62% Team 1 Team 2 Line Difference Play Expected Total Lac Cha 199.50 6.34 Over 205.84 Chi Cle 187.00 0.74 Over 187.74 Atl Orl 201.50 -7.99 Under 193.51 Dal Tor 202.00 -0.30 Under 201.70 Bos Was 193.50 -1.38 Under 192.12 Phi Nyk 204.50 -8.42 Under 196.08 Sac Hou 216.00 -5.97 Under 210.03 Det Mil 197.00 -5.12 Under 191.88 Okc Sas 204.50 -1.07 Under 203.43 Ind Pho 196.50 -2.08 Under 194.42 My plays tonight: Lac-Cha --> Over Atl-Orl--> Under Phi-Nyk --> Under Sac-Hou --> Under Det-Mil --> Under View Post \| View Thread	Calculationer	60	January 22, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to OVER/UNDER Calulations in NBA Betting That's a good point tnguyen, but OKC is a surprisingly good defensive team, especially when they're playing a high quality opponent. Overs of 215 and up seem to disappoint on a regular basis for me, so I'm still staying away for the night. Cheers on your play. My numbers still say you should be right though! View Post \| View Thread	Calculationer	60	January 21, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to OVER/UNDER Calulations in NBA Betting Last night: 4-2 Overall: 12-8-1 = 60% Team 1 Team 2 Line Difference Play Expected Total Orl Brk 193.50 -7.87 Under 185.63 Bos Mia 197.50 -1.29 Under 196.21 Sac Nop 205.00 0.42 Over 205.42 Por Okc 215.00 3.44 Over 218.44 Min Uta 202.50 1.89 Over 204.39 My plays tonight: Orl-Brk --> Under Only one game fit my criteria for tonight. The only other game that had all the signs pointing one way was actually the Min-Uta game, where all the projections I have point to an Over. There isn't a big enough difference there though, so I'm staying away. Good luck tonight, all. View Post \| View Thread	Calculationer	60	January 21, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to OVER/UNDER Calulations in NBA Betting Wow, 3-1 so far. Looking like a good day to be using these calculations! View Post \| View Thread	Calculationer	60	January 20, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to OVER/UNDER Calulations in NBA Betting Last day posting went 3-2-1. Last post: 3-2-1 Overall: 8-6-1 = 57% Team 1 Team 2 Line Difference Play Expected Total Dal Cle 207.50 5.02 Over 212.52 Lac Det 208.00 1.28 Over 209.28 Tor Cha 185.00 5.05 Over 190.05 Phi Was 208.00 -10.22 Under 197.78 Brk Nyk 193.00 -7.76 Under 185.24 Nop Mem 191.00 2.30 Over 193.30 Mia Atl 201.50 -9.20 Under 192.30 Lal Chi 197.00 -0.37 Under 196.63 Por Hou 217.50 -1.25 Under 216.25 Ind Gsw 198.00 -7.65 Under 190.35 My plays tonight: Dal-Cle --> Over Tor-Cha --> Over Phi-Was --> Under Brk-Nyk --> Under Mia-Atl --> Under Ind-Gsw --> Under View Post \| View Thread	Calculationer	60	January 20, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to OVER/UNDER Calulations in NBA Betting Went 4-2 last night. Last night: 4-2 Overall: 5-4 = 55% Team 1 Team 2 Line Difference Play Expected Total Lac Ind 198.00 -5.64 Under 192.36 Det Was 203.00 -7.62 Under 195.38 Mia Cha 193.50 2.44 Over 195.94 Gsw Nop 204.50 2.53 Over 207.03 Phi Chi 197.50 -9.69 Under 187.81 Mil Hou 199.50 -10.26 Under 189.24 Uta Min 202.50 7.35 Over 209.85 Por Dal 213.50 6.96 Over 220.46 My plays tonight: Lac-Ind --> Under Det-Was --> Under Phi-Chi --> Under Mil-Hou --> Under Uta-Min --> Over Por-Dal --> Over View Post \| View Thread	Calculationer	60	January 18, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to OVER/UNDER Calulations in NBA Betting Whoops, mistakes in that last table. Last night: 1-2 Overall: 1-2 = 33% Team 1 Team 2 Line Difference Play Expected Total Chi Was 185.50 5.14 Over 190.64 Mia Phi 210.50 -3.12 Under 207.38 Min Tor 206.50 -5.17 Under 201.33 Lac Nyk 202.50 -2.00 Under 200.50 Cha Orl 189.50 5.23 Over 194.73 Lal Bos 205.50 8.81 Over 214.31 Uta Det 202.50 -0.31 Under 202.19 Sac Mem 199.50 5.74 Over 205.24 Por Sas 213.00 3.81 Over 216.81 Dal Pho 210.50 -1.86 Under 208.64 Cle Den 213.00 -2.94 Under 210.06 Gsw Okc 207.00 -4.56 Under 202.44 My plays tonight: Chi-Was --> Over Min-Tor --> Under Cha-Orl --> Over Lal-Bos --> Over Sac-Mem --> Over Gsw-Okc --> Under View Post \| View Thread	Calculationer	60	January 17, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to OVER/UNDER Calulations in NBA Betting To clarify, I'm not making anyone use these projections. Obviously JP548 is still recovering from Eli Manning's last pick... or picks, errr..... so I'll let his comment slide. 6 Plays for tonight though below. Last night: 1-2 Overall: 1-2 = 33% Team 1 Team 2 Line Difference Play Expected Total Chi Was 185.50 5.14 Under 190.64 Mia Phi 210.50 -3.12 Under 207.38 Min Tor 206.50 -5.17 Under 201.33 Lac Nyk 202.50 -2.00 Under 200.50 Cha Orl 189.50 5.23 Over 194.73 Lal Bos 205.50 8.81 Over 214.31 Uta Det 202.50 -0.31 Under 202.19 Sac Mem 199.50 5.74 Over 205.24 Por Sas 213.00 3.81 Over 216.81 Dal Pho 210.50 -1.86 Under 208.64 Cle Den 213.00 -2.94 Under 210.06 Gsw Okc 207.00 -4.56 Under 202.44 My plays tonight: Chi-Was --> Over Min-Tor --> Under Cha-Orl --> Over Lal-Bos --> Over Sac-Mem --> Over Gsw-Okc --> Under View Post \| View Thread	Calculationer	60	January 17, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to OVER/UNDER Calulations in NBA Betting I have sheets (excel etc.) where I have those averages set-up. My projected total as shown is an average of the three projections. If I'm playing it, it works out that all of the 7-game, 12-game, and 20-game are saying the same thing. There's nothing from my post that you can plug in really... View Post \| View Thread	Calculationer	60	January 16, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
created a topic OVER/UNDER Calulations in NBA Betting Hey all, Looking to post my 2nd '100' plays here. Ended up going 2-8 on the last 10 to go 54% over the first 100. Not good enough for me. As I mentioned, here are the criteria that need to be met before I'll make a play. I'll post all my calculations, but not necessarily play everything. 1. Difference must be minimum -3 for unders and +5 for overs. Nothing less than those differences will be bet... 2. Each of the 7-game, 12-game, and the 20-game averages must all suggest the same play (all be under, or all be over). 3. Teams in question can't have had an important trade/injury/break-out-game in the last 3 games which may not have shown up in data thus far. For a good chunk of the first '100', I played everything regardless of the difference being 0.05 or 10.00. Cheers Here's tonight's calculations and plays, starting at 0-0-0 here. Last night: 0-0 Overall: 0-0-0 = 0% Team 1 Team 2 Line Difference Play Expected Total Brk Atl 194.50 -12.90 Under 181.60 Nyk Ind 182.50 -9.18 Under 173.32 Okc Hou 207.50 -5.08 Under 202.42 My plays tonight: Brk-Atl --> Under Nyk-Ind --> Under Okc-Hou --> Under View Post \| View Thread	Calculationer	60	January 16, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to NBA Totals Calc's in NBA Betting Yeah, that was crazy and f'ed up. No rhyme or reason to that night at all. All good. I am about to start the new thread. This one didn't end up going great, as last night was a 1-4 night leaving me at 53-47 for the first 100 bets. View Post \| View Thread	Calculationer	176	January 16, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to NBA Totals Calc's in NBA Betting Shite, Last night was rough. Tonight is going to be my last night for my first 100 plays, btw, so I'll be starting a new thread and starting from zero with my new criteria being used from day 1. With that said, here are my plays for tonight and my overall stats so far. Last night: 1-3 YTD: 52-43-1 = 55% Team 1 Team 2 Line Difference Play Expected Total Chi Orl 180.50 -8.39 Under 172.11 Cha Phi 207.00 5.46 Over 212.46 Mia Was 196.00 -2.16 Under 193.84 Tor Bos 196.50 -1.73 Under 194.77 Mem Mil 186.50 2.11 Over 188.61 Sac Min 218.50 6.76 Over 225.26 Hou Nop 204.50 -0.34 Under 204.16 Uta Sas 201.00 1.69 Over 202.69 Lal Phx 212.50 0.53 Over 213.03 Cle Por 211.50 -0.37 Under 211.13 Den Gsw 212.50 -2.89 Under 209.61 Dal Lac 206.00 0.33 Over 206.33 For simplicity in coming up to 100 games even, I'm playing exactly 5 games tonight. Hopefully we finish off 5-0! Here they are: My plays tonight: Chi-Orl --> Under Cha-Phi --> Over Mia-Was --> Under Sac-Min --> Over Den-Gsw --> Under View Post \| View Thread	Calculationer	176	January 15, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to NBA Totals Calc's in NBA Betting Take a look at page 6. They're there, along with all the data.... " My plays tonight: Sac-Ind --> Under Nyk-Cha --> Over Okc-Mem --> Over Cle-Lal --> Under " View Post \| View Thread	Calculationer	176	January 14, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to NBA Totals Calc's in NBA Betting Hey Danny boy, it says on my last post where my picks were. I'm almost at 100 plays and I'll probably run around 57% for the first 100, which is slightly less than I wanted to be hitting. For everyone's info, at that time I'm going to start keeping track of the second '100' bets separately, as my betting criteria have changed since I started. Once the second '100' starts I will be keeping it to the following criteria: 1. Difference must be minimum -3 for unders and +5 for overs. Nothing less than those differences will be bet... 2. Each of the 7-game, 12-game, and the 20-game averages must all suggest the same play (all be under, or all be over). 3. Teams in question can't have had an important trade/injury/break-out-game in the last 3 games which may not have shown up in data thus far. Those will be the new set-in-stone criteria to get my average above 60% for the second '100'. For a good chunk of the first '100', I played everything regardless of the difference being 0.05 or 10.00. Cheers View Post \| View Thread	Calculationer	176	January 14, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to NBA Totals Calc's in NBA Betting My 7-game running average for these teams is sitting at 203.95 pts, and Westbrook has been out for most of those 7 games, if not all of them. View Post \| View Thread	Calculationer	176	January 14, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to NBA Totals Calc's in NBA Betting Last night: 2-3 YTD: 51-40-1 = 56% Team 1 Team 2 Line Difference Play Expected Total Sac Ind 194.50 -3.95 Under 190.55 Nyk Cha 187.00 3.06 Over 190.06 Okc Mem 194.50 7.42 Over 201.92 Cle Lal 202.50 -6.03 Under 196.47 My plays tonight: Sac-Ind --> Under Nyk-Cha --> Over Okc-Mem --> Over Cle-Lal --> Under View Post \| View Thread	Calculationer	176	January 14, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to NBA Totals Calc's in NBA Betting Yeah, not a great night. Should have had the 3-2 night with NOP-SAS, but they couldn't finish at the end. Also, Chi-Was got back on track, but Washington shot 53% for the game. Crap. View Post \| View Thread	Calculationer	176	January 14, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to NBA Totals Calc's in NBA Betting I'm feeling good about those games too. Ant the Tor-Mil one, but unfortunately I got on the Tor-Mil game way too early. I'm on the Under at 184.5, where as now the line is at 187.5. Would have loved those extra 3 points! I guess that just means that vegas was seeing the same things that I am in the calculations when they opened the line. View Post \| View Thread	Calculationer	176	January 13, 2014 View Post \| View Thread

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