Callmethan

I blame rivers lol

Defeated 

I think you will hit that. He def going over 75 now , good call . I have a lot of units on the first Kansas td 

my narrative is that Patrick Mahomes amd offence will dominate and be up by 2-4 possessions (maybe not) but that’s my narrative so they will abandon the run . 

I respect your opinion about the value but I’m not looking at Kansas whole season . Hill was hurt , McCoy was also on the field for more snaps. The last 5 games these 3 guys have produced 77% of Kansas total offensive Td’s. I look at it like I have a 77% chance of it hitting due to the current roster suiting up

Two heads are better than one aairomworks. Always interested in working with others if your interested . Do you have a background in fantasy football? It helps 

thanks TJZags598. Lmao yes backdoor td are the worst !! So many different bets with same odds and more than the popular ATS and over under game total . I find satisfaction trying to expose the angle of each game, not always right but.. lol. The Edelman bet I had yesterday tilted me though. No idea how tgat didn’t hit , I guess with Sanu now present the guy is taking a back seat. Have not watched the game yet though but looking at the score it looks like disappoint all around . Though my shootout for sure . Weird day though yesterday 

My touchdown play above are all 5 unit plays and the 3 plays I just added are all just one unit plays . 

Few more plays tonight .

Chargers offensive line banged up and missing a couple key tackles Russell Okung and Sam Tevi both out for tonight’s game . Kansas City , I expect will roll in this game as Patrick Mahomes gets an nice matchup against a vulnerable secondary so should score . Also second game back from injury so should play better. Because of this the Chargers will have be forced to pass and try to keep pace , therefore abandoning the run game .

Kansas has been gashed by the run this season so you would think the chargers having Ekeler and Melvin will find holes all night long...this would likely be the case if offensive line was healthy . My picks are all based on this narrative tgat Kansas will be able to stop the run better because the chargers will have difficult time finding lanes due to poor oline, therefore be forced to make quick throws to Ekeler who seems to be better receiver out of backfield . 

-Phillip Rivers OVER 1.5 passing TD’s odds 1.80

- Melvin Gordon UNDER 75.5 rushing yards odds 1.85

- Austin Ekeler OVER 35.5 Receiving yards odds 1.85

Just wanted to add to anyone actually reading this that prop bets can be very profitable. My above bet probably looks pretty silly but if you break down the numbers yourself and calculate the likelyhood of one of these 3 guys scoring first , you will notice that the percent of that hitting is very high and the return is 1.5x that of say a standard ATS bet where you will likely be getting just less then even money with only about a 50 percent chance of winning it. 

Week 11 so far + 2.7 units 

1st play for tonight game is a hedge bet on first touchdown scorer for Kansas City. These three guys ,  Hill, Kelce and Damien Williams get majority of the red zone looks when looking at the numbers (footballguys.com) and have a very good chance for one these guys to get the first TD for the Kansas side . The odds are

william +350

kelce +400

Hill +400

This isn’t a what team will score TD first, just which Kansas player will score first TD.

I am putting five unit on each of them and should one get in first, I will gain 7.5 units on this play . High unit count on this play because looking these guys dominate red zone. A little worried about Hardman but it’s gambling right?  Also worth noting that if you think Kansas will score first TD before chargers and want the gamble the odds are +700 for all 3 guys so be going 5 units on that bet if one hits . 

Julian Edelman OVER 6.5 rec Odds 1.8

Macaffrey, Elliott, Dalvin Cook and josh Jacobs all to score ANYTIME TD PARLAY odds 4.0 . 

Tyler Boyd OVER 4.5 receptions odds 1.8 and OVER 60 yards odds 1.80

started off good then finished bad with Tyler Boyd and Edelman disappointing showing . Still on the 

Plus side of 2.7 units for the week so far and have a few plays tonight . 

DJ Moore OVER 5.5 receptions odds 1.80

I’ll stick to my prop bets , Houston getting smashed!!

Adding Randall Cobb td anytime odds 3.0 and over 35 receiving yards at 1.80

Jarod Cook ANYTIME TD score odds 3.25

John Brown OVER 23.5 longest reception odds 1.85 

Booooom Cobb!!! 

Going good so far

Adding Randall Cobb td anytime odds 3.0 and over 35 receiving yards at 1.80

Tyler Boyd bet Finley at QB not Driskel. Just an typo sorry everyone . Still like the bet