CappingBros

Crazy live move in the Buffalo/Washington game. Why crazy ? Because there is not a single legit reason to back Washington here yet the smart money is doing just that.

Washington +4.5


No one likes the Browns. It is pretty amazing to see close to 65% of bettors backing a not really popular 9 points favorite.

Cleveland +9


M.Stafford declared probable, the line goes back to -3, and the public support for Detroit followed in the same direction. Trap line written all over it.

Denver +3



Good luck !

dallas +6
wish i took this one before. probably the strangest line change so far this season. i have a crazy feeling that dallas will even win outright, based on line change and public %.

giants -3
this is a borderline play but i will play it and count in win or lose. everything i look for is there, but i just dont like how the giants match up with buffalo.

miami +7
another game where the line is moving in the direction that it is not supposed to move. i liked this one even before the line moved down from 9.

thats it for week 6. good luck !

Yes Denver.

Please unload on San Diego if you like them so much.

Quote Originally Posted by Copag07:

Let's hear your system.

I explained it last season and this season as well ;)

Trying to spot the games where the betting volume and betting %s on a team are unusual for that team or for the situation. Last year I was successifull, this season looks even better. Good luck.

Looks like I will only have these two, at least for the day action. Not rulling out SNF or MNF yet.

had only 1 play yesterday in cbb (kansas) and lost it after a 20-0 lead...

nfl plays:

seattle +4.5

cincy +3

kansas city +3

good luck

Up 20-0.

the texas tech line intrigued me since this it came out and what happened later this week convinced me that kansas could be worth 3 units. so, this is definately a very big play for me in cfb, as i use this system with more success in the nfl and rarely play anything this big in college football. first of all, this line looked fishy even at -7.5, and when the public started hammering txt, the line went down to -6.5 which is very strange to say the least. many early games will be played this week and txt game is not even close to the biggest early game in terms of volume, but txt as a team leads them all with # of bets on a single team. thats a huge red flag. i will agree with the majority that kansas is a bad football team this season, but at least they can say that they have only 1 turnover in three games, two games with 4 penalties or less, a perfect home record, #1 rating in b12 in punting average, #2 in passing efficiency, #2 in 3rd down %, and #2 in red zone efficiency. so, not everything is bad in kansas. they can also say that they played one solid mid major team and one of the best offenses out there in georgia tech. they are also off their bye week, while texas tech had to come from behind down by 14 in third and by 10 in the fourth to beat nevada who run 46 times on them for over 300 yards on the ground. texas tech also has a big revenge against texas a&m next week. according to statfox, texas tech averages 5.2 rypc against teams allowing 5.9 rypc and 8.1 pypa against teams allowing 8.2 pypa, so maybe their offense is not as good as it looks on paper. and we already know that their defense is not good, allowing 5.1 rypc to teams averaging 4.4 rypc and 7.5 pypa against teams averaging 6.3 pypa.

kansas +7 -112 in multiple revenge spot is my best bet this week.

gl

Buffalo +7

New England is getting more and more love since the line went down. Suddenly, they are a public play after being ignored all week long. The line went the other way and that is usually a good sign for dog bettors who use systems like mine.


Houston +4

New Orleans support has been steady all week long, but the line is not moving. If we compare this game to last weeks NO game, we will see that New Orleans is getting a lot more love noth in volume and % of bets. Houston could be the surprise of the week.

Rams +4

2nd straight week that Ravens are getting insane action, and it is even worst than last week because this weeks game is not big on volume and Baltimore is stil getting more action than most of the teams this week.


Colts +10.5

I am actually scared here but gotta follow the system...or as they say, dont fix what aint broken. The Colts were getting a lot of action in weeks 1 and 2 given their situation, but this week it all changes.


I will probably add 1 more play Sunday. Good luck !

4-3 cfb

4-0 nfl

8-3 o/a

arizona +15

i am quite surprised to see a late night game, where the spread is -15, get this much action early on. i know that oregon is a public team but this is unusual even for them. no love for arizona which is not surprising after last weeks game. perfect scenario for the home dog cover an why not, a home dog win. arizona played them well last year in the first half and they also played well against stanford last week in the first half. oregon had all kinds of trouble in last 3 trips to arizona.

west virginia +5.5

ok, lsu is always about hype, huge fan base, and national exposure, but this game is kinda too big on volume as they are going against a small market big east team. its not like they are playing a big sec school. i expect a tight battle thruout here and a real public bloodbath. lsu was on national tv last week and their defense looked great. they won, covered and made everyone believe that they are the next great team. one thing lost in that translation is that their offense stinks.

north carolina +7 (i am buying half point here)

this game is getting more and more action as the week goes on. and georgia tech is getting all the love because of their offense. i learned a long time ago that good defense beats good offense most of the time. why not this time. georgia tech hasnt been tested yet. no one can really say how good they are.

rice +21 (i am buying half pt)

baylor may be a good team but the love they are getting is getting insane. rice played texas taugh in week one and then won against a bad big 10 school. for rice it was a big win regardless how bad that big 10 school was. and then they had a week off to prepare for baylor, who by the way opens their b12 calender next week.

2 wins and a push...4-0 ytd

San Francisco +3

This game has a heavy volume, and it is not usual for a 4 pm game to have a big volume saturday night. The volume is mostly concentrated on side betting and not so much on totals. Dallas is getting all the love here making this play maybe the squarest one today.

I will tease these two and that will be all for week 2:

SF +10 tease with Tennessee +13

Good luck all !

in college basketball this is a solid trend (to go with the unranked fave over a ranked team) that in the long run wins money.

in college football, its better to take lower ranked faves, like when #22 is favored against #5....