collegefball09

@Kwan49 I have $600 on BU currently, unfortunately I have them at -3.5.

Yes it is scary, but I have to trust my analysis of important stats (Yds/play on O and D, explosive plays, key matchups). We don't know exact money bet in Vegas, its possible there was a large bet taken on NIU (people love looking at history of 2 teams and NIU has won 11 in a row. I feel this is very overrated in college as most of these players have only played each other once or twice). I suspect part of reason for the .5 pt move is Vegas oddsmakers discovered that many more NIU fans will be attending compared to Buff (based on ticket sales/purchase area of tickets from certain areas) making it more of a home game for NIU. But I believe the game being indoors makes it an overall advantage for BU.

I just put up a post with my analysis. I also like BU for a few statistical reason.

And my argument to NIU looking good vs some good non-conf opponents is all those opponents are run heavy, slow paced teams (Iowa, Utah, BYU) which plays into NIU's strength (stopping the run). They struggled the most vs Fla St bc Fla St has a decent passing attack unlike the previous 3. Buff is the best passing O they have seen all season.

I like Buffalo for the following reasons...

1.) Yds/Play on Off-Buff 5.9/ NIU 4.4....Def yds/play NIU-4.4 Buff 5.0 . While NIU has a great defense, Buffalo has a solid defense as well. Buff avg's 1.5 more yds/play and only gives up .6 more yds per play. 

2.) Explosive plays (some say this is the most important stat in a game) which Buffalo has the clear edge in.

3.) Injuries- Buffalo has virtually no one injured. NIU has multiple injuries.

4.) Game played indoors. This favors the passing team over the running team.

5.) NIU has fared well vs some good ooc opponents (BYU, IOWA, UTAH)...but what do those teams all have in common? They are run heavy, slow paced teams which plays into NIU strength which is stopping the run (#2 in country). Buffalo is a spread team with more of a passing attack with athletes all over the field which plays into NIU's weakness (#44 in country, but their whole sched has teams with weak passing attacks). 

6.) If NIU has trougle getting pressure, Buff athletes will get open, and they will put up big plays. Buff has a very good offensive line (#4 in QB sack %). NIU has a good D line so this battle upfront will be interesting to watch. I believe Buff will get the ball out quick to Johnson and Osborn, and they are better than NIU secondary.

7.) NIU will need to establish a solid run to keep the Buff offense out of rhythm and off the field.   NIU is 84th in yds/rush. Buff D is #64 yd/rush. I believe Buff will be able to stop the run enough to get stops. 

I dont like to bet against teams with great defenses like NIU, but I believe BU has the better athletes, much better QB, and with things like the game being indoors and injuries favoring Buffalo, I definitely lean towards BU -3. IF Buff jumps out to early lead, I dont think NIU has explosive enough O to come back. IF NIU gets early lead, I think BU can put up big plays to comeback quickly. I like BU -3.5 (its now -3). Good luck to all.