DaMan's Picks

UNLV +21

Favorites of 18.5 or more after being a dog of 24 or more last week and 33.5 or more in last two weeks combined are 0-15 ATS, losing ATS by 3 touchdowns per game on average. Converted to this game, the system tells us that this game will be extremely close, maybe even going to OT.

Underdogs after losing by 22-38 points as favorites of 7.5-19.5 points are 10-0 ATS against teams that were underdogs of more than 4 pts last week. These underdogs are covering by 14 ppg. This system tells us that Nevada should win by 7.

My ratings line is Nevada -14. I know that many will say that my ratings are no good if they show Nevada just 11 points better than UNLV (+3 points for the home field), but thats OK. I trust my ratings because they give me winners week after week.

Putting it all in perspective, I expect Nevada to win by about 7, and UNLV to cover this spread rather easily. But I will gladly take a backdoor cover too. Remember, Nevada played Boise last week, and that was a big game for them, and Texas Tech in an amazing shoutout the week before. They probably have very little energy left in their tank. Even if they jump ahead against UNLV, I can see them getting tired at one point later in the game.

regular 1 unit plays: bc +21, van +29

Carolina +7 -119

Miami +7

Jacksonville +7

final strong play this week: kansas +7.5

i am buying 1 full pt here...gotta a feeling that it will be a game where tds will be exchanged and not fgs.

final card:

iowa state +10

florida atlantic +10

kansas +7.5

gl

Quote Originally Posted by richmondfan:

any reasoning behind FAU? every time I see them they are terrible....Iowa State I can understand..being at home and Texas really is not that good this year more or less alot like last year lol....just wondering what intrigued you bout the FAU game tho..Thanks bro!

I saw some signs of improvement from FAU in their last game, after their bye week. Their strength of schedule is #2 in the nation, so it is hard to say how bad a SBC team is after playing at Auburn, at Michigan State and at Florida. La Lafayette pulled a major upset last week but they also barely edged Nicholls State the week before and Nocholls State is the worst team in one of the worst conferences in Div.-II. I remember some people were telling us here how bad La Laffayette was after struggling against Nicholls State for 3 quarters. Then they won at FIU last week, in what was obviously a big letdown situation for FIU and all of the sudden La Laffayette is considered a world beater. They have an inexperienced team and they will have their ups and downs all season long. Good luck.

last week: 3-0 (ncaa: wmu +14, nfl: den +7, buf +7)

12-1-1 ytd in football....

i have a feeling that i will get burned this week for one simple reason: i like this weeks plays a lot. never a good thing to be too confident.

1st play this week: fla atla +10

more ncaa and probably early nfl post later today.

Denver winner...

Buffalo winner....

12-1-1 upset special picks in football

no bud, i dont play totals...but if you ask me which one i like more, my answer is over....good luck

i lean over...buffalo way underrated...nwe overrated...value play

Quote Originally Posted by yankeefan98121:

almost doesn't count!

unfortunately for you, it counts because i didnt play the moneyline but rather wmu +pts.

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=33&sub=101138468

Western Michigan almost got there yesterday against Illinois, giving me an easy win on the pointspread. 2 in the NFL today.

Denver +7...

Buffalo +7...

Good luck boys & girls !

Almost got there for the upset, but a cover is good enough for me.

10-1-1

wmu +14

illini won a close one against a top 25 team last week and opens up their conference schedule next week...bad spot for them. taking some of that juicy +426 moneyline as well but that will not be reflected in the record regardless the outcome.

Forget their defense ?

How can you possibly forget the most important part of any team?

Forgot to mention that Colorado St +7.5 is my play.

Plays:

MISSISSIPPI ST +3.5

TULSA +14

COLORADO STATE +7.5

Mississippi State +3.5

Mississippi State vs Auburn last week:

+150 yds, + 12:14 min of TOP, +22% on 3rd down

Those stats tell me that they were better than Auburn. They lost because they were not focused enough in key moments. Why ? Because they took Auburn for granted after they saw how Auburn struggled in week 1.

Acoording to sagarin and all other major ratings LSU should be favored by 10 or more. Is Vegas giving a gift to the bettors LOL ? No. They just know that this game can go either way.

Take a look at <espn streak for cash> for this game. First of all, 98% are picking LSU to win. And then, go deeper and check what people are saying about this game.

Rams +4

Vikings +9

Tease Rams +11, Vikings +16

Thats all for me in week 1 !

4-1 in week 1. Lets keep on rolling...

Notre Dame moneyline. Better team, with urgency and revenge.

Duke +21. Stanford has more important games ahead.

Georgia +3. To be or not to be, that is the question for Georgia.

BYU +7. Texas actually played Rice better in 2010 than last week.

Cincinnati +6. Tennessee horrible 7.5 & - fave vs non conference.

Colorado +7 -120. Cal not a good road fave historically.

UAB +24 -115. Florida could care less about thsi one.

my players love 5 faves for the weekend...

i suggest you the following plays:

miami of ohio +21...

louisiana monroe +29...double up

new mexico +6....

ball state +6...

marshall +23...

personally i am also going with a 7 pt teaser:

miami of ohio +28

louisiana monroe +36