Deathace

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	replied to Hedging advice? in NFL Betting Quote Originally Posted by freestlyin: First thing to think about in hedging a futures wager in my opinion: is the potential win “life changing money”....if yes then attempt to take some payback....if no then you made the wager originally thinking it would win so let it ride. If you don’t want to adhere to the above philosophy then discussing wager amounts comes into play. How much is your 19-1 season win total parlay currently worth, and how much additional risk are you willing to take to “guarantee” a profit. For example a $100 wager that pays $1900 currently has a 13.3% chance of winning and an 87.7% chance of losing. A touch over double the implied odds of your original wager. Your only play is Steelers ML at -1000 in this scenario and you would need to add an additional $1000 of risk just to have a chance at your original wager back ($1100 total risked if Steelers win and $100 in return, but if Steelers lose you return $800 off of $1100 risked. If you decided to lay $2000 on Steelers ML you could potentially end up with $100 profit or -$200) no real “pure hedge” opportunity unfortunately unless you just want to play to get your original wager back. Same scenario X2 at different odds on your second question although needing to hit 2 games on the ML wouldn’t be a hedge at all its a completely separate wager. Let em ride and hope 1 hits would be my advice...and if you want a further breakdown Im happy to oblige...a few nears misses got you in this position, maybe one more can cash a ticket. Thanks for taking the time to reply, freestylin :) I've got $100 wagered on the first scenario @19.12 = 1912 bucks if it cashes. I've got $165 wagered on the second scenario @ 15.57 = 2404 bucks if it cashes. (apologies, I said 20 to 1 in the opening post, but when I double checked it was actually these odds). Letting it ride is still an option and even if both lose I've had a profitable season, but I just wanted to understand my options with the help of some more experienced sports bettors. View Post \| View Thread	Deathace	7	December 26, 2018 View Post \| View Thread
	created a topic Hedging advice? in NFL Betting Hi guys, New to the forum, but been sports betting for a while and was hoping for some advice from the sage experts here. HEDGE ADVICE 1: At the start of this NFL season I put on a 'season total wins' parlay at 19 to 1 odds. It's obviously a lot of money if it gets up and all legs are home except the Bengals over 6.5 wins. This one hurts, because they were 5 wins after 7 weeks... Anyway, they're currently on 6 wins and unlikely to beat the Steelers, so is there a smarter way to hedge than simply betting the Steelers at really short odds? HEDGE ADVICE 2: This one is harder. After the Colts lost the first few games, I put money on them to win the AFC South at 20 to 1 odds. A few Texans losses would have seen a nice pay day, but unfortunately they kept winning. If the Texans lose to the Jags and the Colts beat the Titans, it'll cash, but is there any smart way to hedge this? Any advice gratefully received. I look forward to contributing to the forum and learning from you guys. :) View Post \| View Thread	Deathace	7	December 26, 2018 View Post \| View Thread

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