digbick1969

Having tons of problems picking a winner here. Does anyone have some insight on this matchup? Who do you like and why ?  Assuming both win their first round game ...

 

thanks !

Uconn ML is a waste of $$$$$. There has NEVER EVERRRR been a team that has won the NCAA tournament that was ranked outta the top 20 in the ncaa in adjusted defense and adjusted offense. Florida is the only team left ranked top 20 in both categories. Doesn't mean they can't lose but it's never happened so going against it is slim to no chance of uconn winning. Uconn may cover this game but 0 chance of winning outright. Florida is taking down this tournament so taking the dog ML against them is a waste. Not gonna happen. Good luck though.

Also Michigan -5 over Texas. Currently sitting at -1.5 over Tennessee. Big difference. People seem to have gave texas a better shot at beating Michigan than Tennessee which is just laughable. I think when comparing those two games the spread gives it away as well as the public being more on Texas against Michigan than Tennessee.

I agree ACC is an overrated conference but come on Michigan State is the most public/loved team I have seen in a long long time. They are going to lay an egg Friday, and Virginia is going to win that game. I have never seen so much love in my life for one team. Even the president is licking Michigan States a**hole!!! This reminds me of the Super Bowl. The way everyone is sounding Virginia might as well not even show up just like the Seahawks in the Super Bowl. Michigan state is going to make a lot of people unhappy come Friday.

Michigan and Wisconsin get eaten up on the boards & down low by more athletic teams in Tennessee & Baylor. Both teams are going to have to absolutely light it up from 3 to win which I don't think happens.

Michigan State runs into maybe the best defensive team in the country in Virginia. They will be able to slow down Michigan state and play their game to come away with a victory. Not to mention 77% of the betting public already on Michigan state which is just laughable. Give me Virginia in a close one.

You heard it here first, every big ten team goes down in the sweet 16. Good luck to all!

Does anyone know of anyone who does a poll for a sweet 16 bracket only? I think it would be fun to do like a $20 entry & try to get a bunch of people in it.

The Hawk I feel you line looks fishy. But look back at the ACC tournament, Virginia who is a #1 seed was favored 3.5 over Pitt on a neutral court. When you figure in both teams last games (Pitt looking invincible against Colorado & Florida sucking) a 5/5.5 line for Florida is the exact correct line. Also, the line pretty much forces you to wanna take Pitt as it looks like a trap. Who doesn't feel that way?

RLM huge Pitt fan here... In all honesty think they lose this game by double digits. They have limited scorers, one of the worst rebounding Pitt teams I have seen in decades, and a coach who never wins the big game. Ppl here in
Pittsburgh are talking this team up like the are some Cinderella story for some reason just cause they beat a crap Colorado team whose best player was injured. Pitt will have limited second chance points today due to their poor rebounding, and Florida will pound the ball down load to Young & eat them alive. Good luck but I wouldn't back Pitt in this type of game if you handed me free money to bet them. Also read every forum online everyone thinks Pitts gonna win. Save your $$$$$$$$$.

RLM huge Pitt fan here... In all honesty think they lose this game by double digits. They have limited scorers, one of the worst rebounding Pitt teams I have seen in decades, and a coach who never wins the big game. Ppl here in
Pittsburgh are talking this team up like the are some Cinderella story for some reason just cause they beat a crap Colorado team whose best player was injured. Pitt will have limited second chance points today due to their poor rebounding, and Florida will pound the ball down load to Young & eat them alive. Good luck but I wouldn't back Pitt in this type of game if you handed me free money to bet them.

Vegasinsider take the average of like 10 sports books into those opening and closing so it's not accurate

Bcm.....sportsinsights.com which are pinnacle lines. Only lines that matter. Don't pass up the easy winner

Last Night:
Open:
Oklahoma state -11.5
TCU +11.5

Close:
Oklahoma state -13.5 (76%)
TCU +13.5 (24%)

Oklahoma crushed them...

Tonight: Similar Game/Line
Open:
Wichita State -12
Bradley +12

Current:
Wichita State -11.5 (79%)
Bradley +11.5 (21%)

These games are almost mirror image games minus the fact of Wich State going for 30 straight. At 4PM yesterday Oklahoma state had risen 2 full points to 13.5, and today 4PM Wich has dropped a half point. Both games having over 75% of the public on the favorite yet Oklahoma state rises 2 and Wich state drops a half (and even more pub on Wich)? Come on think about it... Wichita loses outright tonight. Take BRADLEY +11.5 to the bank $$$$$$$$$$$$$!

Byrd2178.... Minnesota screwing you last game should be a reason to back them this game. Your thinking is backwards things don't repeat themselves. How many times do you take a team one game, and then the next time you aren't involved in their next game they come through? All the time... Good luck love the pick tonight!!!

Thanks for the fade parlay Lawson. We love ya on the forums!!!!

Good hit unc backers! Don't get fooled when a crap team opens up -1 over a better team. The line is set like that to screw with your mind.

This makes me feel so much better as I am on UNC and Oklahoma state. This dudes a magnificent fade.

rr207 it's not even gonna move unc favorite. The lines gonna hold at Florida state favorite to make ya think.

Also, Gregmlv, I know this is a super small sample size but have seen this type of situation a ton on top of all my examples. When you look at a line and say "I love unc" but then you say to yourself "why the f*** is FSU favored over North Carolina with how good they been play?" That's what the line makes u think hence reverse trap.

Good luck!!!

Teams opening up as a -1 favorite at home over a more superior team in the eyes of the public (please keep this in mind. Not basing this on skill. But what the public expexta) is what is called a reverse trap. Books try to scare you off the +1 road obvious team and try I bait u on that home team. Just cause they are less superior at the moment and favored over a better team they want u to buy into that. Below are a few examples that have taken place over the past 2 weeks but please not the home team HAS TO OPEN AT -1 nothing else.

Open:
Syracuse +1
Pitt -1
(Yes cuse hit a miracle shot to win but they were only down 1 before that shot and most books closed this game at 1.5 or 2).

Open:
Heat +1
Clippers -1

Open:
Heat +1
Golden state -1

Open:
Okc +1
Portland -1
(Yes some will say that okc is not much better than Portland and this is a pretty even matchup... But at the moment of
This game okc was more superior in publics eye)

Open:
Notre dame +1
Boston college -1

Now we have....
North Carolina +1
Florida state -1

Yes a square looks at that and says.... North Carolina definitely! As would a square say in all the games I mentioned above. This makes people who try to be smart think a little. Well why is Florida state favored? They can't even beat Miami at home how are they gonna beat both Carolina. Why are they favored over North Carolina? They gotta be the play! North Carolina is a trap! well...Don't fall for the trap on FSU. I know the line forces ppl who actually put some thought into picking a side think FSU automatically just cause unc seems too easy. Well it is that easy. Unc wins this game by 5 +++ good luck to all just giving u some info on a type of a line (like unc and FSU tomorrow) that has burned me a lot in my past but I am done falling for it!

Thx for posting :)

I have been destroying second halfs all season long, and decided it was time to track my plays.  If you follow this thread throughout the rest of the season you will profit big time. 

Play #1:
(2H) Ohio State -7 $550/$500