dingodogg

thanks for insight Django. i like alot!

my picks:

Hawthorn -28.5 (under the roof in perfect conditions hawks could win by 50+)

Adelaide +8.5 (no scarlett no geelong)

North Melbourne -39.5 (need % will win by 50+)

Fremantle -7.5 (huge ins this week - fyfe, mayne, dawson)

Sydney -45.5 (if they're serious about the premiership this year, they have to beat GC win by 50+)


West Coast -31.5 (i like the revenge factor here)

good luck all!

Quote Originally Posted by Django:

Bobby's surely going to be on the other side of this one, but I have a feeling the Crows upset the Cats down in Geelong. Crows with the points or Cats 1-39, should be a close one.

North are averaging about 45 points more than Melbourne a game. North battling for a finals 8 spot could use a percentage boost. Melbourne probably start tanking for bottom position so they don't need to use a first round pick on Viney and hope GWS and Gold Coast can get another two wins, both have Melbourne, GWS and Gold Coast play each other in rd20. Although if Melbourne lose both games, that leaves them 2nd last on percentage as it's unlikely the loser of Suns and Giants (probably Giants) wins one of their remaining games given the draw. Giants could really screw Melbourne again by making them waste a first round pick on a father son they've invested a lot into.

Regardless, North by lots. Over 10 goals.

Collingwood spread will be huge, think the bounce back after last week and really punish the Giants. Pies by 150+

If Carlton get a Henderson, Kreuzer and possibly Waite back they should end Richmonds finals chances. Carlton with the points

Sydney should put on a clinic against the Suns. Swans to cover

Port Adelaide off a trip to Darwin, had to work hard to run over Melbourne in the final quarter. Freo had a training drill against an undermanned Giants. Freo need this to stay in touch with North and with 3% gain in percentage bump North out of the 8.

Saints will be far too good for the Bulldogs, Saints need this to keep finals chances alive, they have almost assured wins over GWS and Melbourne to come but need to be able get wins over Collingwood, Cats and Carlton to fight for a finals berth.

Eagles should get a big win here, back at home coming off two tough losses and the revenge factor for the Lions shock upset earlier in the season.

That line is a bit high at -31.5 though. I think I'll lay off backing that one. Lions haven't been too bad and could keep it respectable. Maybe a play on the Eagles Team Total over 80-90, depending on weather.

Henderson out for the season... blues season is rooted

Good luck mate!

Isiah Rider

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZQy61RvJPbY

1.06 on a $100 outlay pays $6 profit

If you got the big bucks then its just easy money. Dallas will not get blown out in game 1 of finals. the 19 pts is easy cover in what will be a tight contest. Both teams will be feeling each other out and getting matchups sorted. I'm leaning on UNDER.

Good Luck Bro. I'm on the rabbits tonight too

Best of Luck JesseJames15.

With you on MIA to close out and cover easy. Double digit win... game could be over by the 3rd.

Really dig your take on covers posters, alot of truths there...

Orl -9.5 get there mojo back. GL

On Amare at 51s. Started a post middle of Dec last year commenting it was great value and got no love. 

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=22&sub=100914401

Good luck all

I'll be checking out that race to the MVP reguarly. cheers robbypark.

Nice bet on D Rose, i might have a nibble on Rose and Dwill their offering 17-1 at the moment.

Whether Amar'e wins it or not, its all about the value. The $51 was craaaaazy over odds. As the season goes on, his odds will only come in more, I'll be in a position to lay soon.

Maka - agree with you on Lebron, mighty impressive effort so far. He's all about winning right now and their current win streak is a credit to his current frame of mind.

Dirk? - he's got Kidd, Butler, Marion helping him out. An old argument, but he's surrounded by all-star calibre players.

Dwight? - he's a year away, needs to refine his moves, he has added to his arsenal (running hook, a developing jumpshot), but they aren't close to polished yet.

KG? - is on a tear this season, but the Celtics play way too good team ball and he doesn't stand out enough eventhough i know he is the X-factor in their game. 

Deron? - maybe, he does scare me because he is a better PG than CP3, although without that stud Paul Milsap Utahs record would not be so flattering.

Derrick Rose worries me too. That guy is unstoppable some nights.

AMARE plays alongside a talented rookie in Fields, but he is just a rookie. Gallinari is streaky. Wilson Chandler helps out in the paint, but really Wilson Chandler is not a force to be reckoned with. And Raymond Felton has definitely stepped it up at PG this year and thriving in D'Antonio's offence, but he won't be the reason  Amare doesn't win an MVP. Check out Amare +/- while on the floor. HUGE!

into 13-1 now. Huge value now even if you don't think he can win it.

Or have the bookies adjusted for the immenent arrival of Carmelo by all-star break?

Anyone else have the hindsight to bet 1st scoring play of 3rd Qtr - Miami freethrow.

I got 8/1 ... had bookies bent over. And then fkn Arroyo missed the FT!!!!!!!!

Quote Originally Posted by instinctpicks:

thats why they gave 10 to indiana some days ago on the road and lost straight up.

Nah man, that game was in South Beach 22/11/10