DrStrangelove

This week's plays so far:

CMU +6.5 (W)

ULM +3

Oregon St +13

Good luck Mac 

So sorry about your pet Wahoo. I lost my dog of 14 years last year. You never really stop thinking about them after they're gone. The problem with dogs/cats is they are with us for just 10-15 years, and that's just not long enough..

So far this week the PRD's have been the actual running dogs. Now this is how it should be every week …. PRDs that end up being actual running dogs and hitting at 75% !!

CMU outrushed WMU 167-50 (W)

NIU outrushed Miami (OH) 128-87 (L)

Buffalo outrushed EMU 136-70 (W)

Ohio outrushed Toledo 238-39 (W)

A little trivia for you: 

Rice, Kennesaw St, Temple and FAU all fired their coaches this year …. What do all 4 of those schools have in common?

Just a lean tonight on Buffalo and Ohio since they are both PRD's...barely. Also lean Buffalo over 52.5

This week's plays so far:

CMU +6.5 (W)

ULM +3

This week's plays so far:

CMU +6.5

I hate CMU, but I don't trust WMU either. Especially giving a touchdown on the road with their weak ass D. CMU was -5 in turnovers last week vs Toledo, and never were in the game. Hopefully they'll keep it cleaner this week.

Week 13 Probable Running Dogs (PRD's)

CMU +6.5 … (D, H) … My weekly Chippawa loser

NIU +3 … (D)

Ohio +2.5 …. Better YPG D

Buffalo +2.5

Shit, 4 MAC PRD's...I hate the MAC!

Illinois +2 … (D)

UCONN +10.5 … (D)

Liberty +1 … better YPG D

NMSU +4

ULM +3.5 (D)

Kansas +2.5

Wisconsin +2.5 … better PPG D

Oregon State +12.5

Auburn +2.5

My AZ/TCU run numbers are nearly even…. BYU/ASU run numbers are pretty close too.

YTD: 50-40

Pretty rough week last week for the running dogs...and me. I had a couple bad beats and missed two games by a half a point each to give me my first losing week for awhile. I have to admit, this hasn't been a good year for the running dogs, that are hovering just above 50%. In fact this is their worst season in years. Hopefully they'll make a turnaround in the bowl games. They are still a good reference point for your capping. The biggest problem this season has been finding the actual running dogs. Here's a breakdown of the PRD record. Only thing really working this year are the PRDs of 7 or more points and the first halves. 

YTD: 61-59 (50.83%)

Week 12: 8-12

Home Team: 4-4 … 19-21 (47.50%) YTD
Away Team: 4-8 … 42-38 (52.50%) YTD

Neutral Field: 0-0 … 0-0 (0%) YTD
With Better D: 2-4 … 23-17 (57.50%) YTD
With Better D at Home: 0-2 … 6-6 (50%) YTD
7 points or more: 5-6….. 27-15 (64.29%) YTD … DD 16-5 (76.19%) YTD

G5 v P4: 0-0 …. 4-1 (80%) YTD

G5 v G5: 6-5… 26-24 (52%) YTD

P4 v P4: 2-7 … 31-34 (47.69%) YTD

ACTUAL: 37-19 (66.07%) YTD

Week # 11: 5-4

Not the ACTUAL: 24-40 (37.50%) YTD

Week # 11: 3-8

Predicting the ACTUAL: 58-63 (47.93%) YTD (number different than overall because of a push)

ODU +2.5

A few first half plays that I bet small... BC +10.5, Pitt +7, Navy +4, SDST +13.5, New Mexico +7, South Alabama +4

@Boisestateand8

SJST has passed the eye test with me the last couple times I've watched them. Pretty solid team. Boise is also very impressive and will win the game, but I just thought 14.5 was a little too many to give a 6-3 team on the road. Of course I could be wrong! My number is 11 so I had to give it a shot...Good luck with your Broncos.

Plays so far this week:

Sparty +3

Arkansas +14

Kansas +3

UCLA +4.5 (L)

San Jose St +14.5 (-120)

La Tech +13 (-120)

West Virginia +2

FAU +2

Utah +8 1H

@Boisestateand8

I was also eyeing Sam Houston, but when it crossed -16.5 it became too rich for my blood. But it does feel like a blowout type of game with all of the problems going on at Kennesaw St....BOL this week.

@Boisestateand8

I've already got a half unit on Houston from Sunday, but I'm not crazy about the situational play with Zona coming off a bye week and UH coming off two straight home upsets.. My power ranking of Zona -3.5 doesn't love UH either. It's still tempting to make UH a play just based on Zona's 5 game losing streak. But a 3 win vs a 4 win team on a Friday night late game is pretty ugly. A lot of randomness to this one..

@LonghornHoosier

@BeeRich

Guys, Arky isn't a running dog, so they are strictly a value play for me. My number is -12, that's why I needed at least 14 to play the Hogs. I'm still not 100% sure how healthy Taylen Green is, but he is playing. I think the big question is how successful will the Horns D be in stopping Arky after coming off a bye week. So far for the most part, Texas has played a pretty weak bunch of offenses this season to pad their good defensive numbers: Messy St, OU, UF, Michigan, ULM. Arkansas should be a little stiffer test for them. But the Horns just might be this good. So it wouldn't be a big surprise to me either way.

Good luck Mac!

Just a lean tonight on Tulsa +17. Okay, maybe for some pizza and wings. The spread seems a little high to me for a middle of the road team to be giving on the road this late in the season.